European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

2 rumors I heard:

In Austria ÖVP strong, SPÖ stagnant, FPÖ with losses, strong Greens and stagnant NEOS.

In Germany CDU/CSU ahead close race for second between SPD and Greens.

Not that it's wrong or something, but I doubt there are rumours about results - just for certain turnout reports in some precincts.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What are Polish posters perspectives on Wiosna anyway?

Another autocratic party centered around its leader, with lack of transparency in financing, plainly stupid ideas in topics like electric energy production (anti-nuclear retardation), healthcare (supporting private sector), no serious taxation policy, no serious labour policy etc. I am also not the biggest fan of narrative (hey guyz, Poland must be cool and hip) which this party tells and aesthetics of that party. But I am not typical Wiosna voter, others might find in their "platform" something appealing.

[RedPrometheus]

Turnout in Germany
14:00 : 29.4 % (+4)

in 2014 (14:00): 25.6%

Munich (12:00): 41,6% (+10)
 
Voted a couple of hours ago. Sunny, 18°, few clouds, completely full polling station. Many people with biking gear, many young people.

It will be a good evening for the German Greens. (again)

[Tender Branson]

Austria polls close in 30 minutes.

Notice that the "exit poll" that will be released at 5pm was conducted among 5.200 voters between Tuesday and today.

This might have nothing to do with the eventual results, because people often lie to pollsters ... (especially now).

ORF live stream (starts in 15 minutes):

https://tvthek.orf.at/live/EU-Wahl-19-ZIB-Spezial-Europa-waehlt/14016105

Results page (after 11pm):

http://wahl19.bmi.gv.at

Map (after 11pm):

http://visual.apa.at/election/index.map.html?apaview=election:eu

Click on Bezirke and Gemeinden for district and city results.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What are Polish posters perspectives on Wiosna anyway?

Frustrating. I share Kataak's problems with them, but I nevertheless like many of the people Biedron has attracted and think they and Biedron's own charisma would be an asset to the joint centre-left list that I vainly hope will still emerge if Wiosna get a single-digit result (as they almost certainly will).

[RedPrometheus]

I just saw an 4 pm exit poll and tonight might be even worse for the CDU/CSU than for the SPD. And the Greens can put the champagne on ice.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

BREAKING

[Diouf]

Expected turnout in Denmark continues rising. At 16.00 turnout is at 46.6%, compared to 37.2%. So we could end up on 65% at 20.00, when the polls close.

[Tender Branson]

Polls closing in 5 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

[jaichind]

Dumb question: Did PILZ run with Greens ?

[Tender Branson]

Dumb question: Did PILZ run with Greens ?

Nope, on their own: Initiative Europa (2%)

[Tirnam]

France, turnout at 5pm: 43.29%. In 2014 it was 35.07%

Final turnout in 2014 was 42.43%, so already a higher turnout.
We are probably going to reach 50% turnout, a 25 years high for the EU elections.

[RedPrometheus]

The only good thing about Austria is its food.

[parochial boy]

Dumb question: Did PILZ run with Greens ?

Mushrooms aren't green, no.

Thank you ladies and gentlemen I'm here all week

[Tender Branson]

This is only a week-long poll.

The results could be different ...

[Tirnam]

Ifop estimates a 54% turnout in metropolitan France.
Ipsos estimate: 50.5% turnout in France (including overseas territories I guess).

[Beagle]

Leaked exit polls in Bulgaria all point towards a solid, if not spectacular win for ruling party GERB with some 30-33%, about 3-5% ahead of BSP, which should be good enough for at least one MEP more than the socialists. DPS is running a fairly active turnout campaign (20% turnout in their bastions as early as 09:30), but nothing out of the ordinary, VMRO and Democratic Bulgaria are teetering around the threshold. The movement towards GERB was palpable in the last few weeks, mostly due to the massive personal campaign PM Boyko Borissov ran, but if the exit polls are correct, the size of GERB's advantage is certainly a surprise.
 
TLDR:
GERB (EPP) - 6-7 MEPs
BSP (S&D) - 5-6 MEPs
DPS (ALDE) - 3-4 MEPs
VMRO (ECR) - 1-2 MEPs
DB (EPP?) - 0-1 MEP

Meanwhile, the leaked exit polls in Romania point towards very narrow PSD advantage, due to the split in the opposition, but I am not sure of their reliability.

[Diouf]

Cypriot exit poll suggests tight race for first between DISY & AKEL. It could very well be a repeat of the 2014 seat distribution with 2 each for DISY & AKEL, and 1 each for DIKO & EDEK. However, the far-right ELAM is a 9% and very close to winning a seat.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132665449056002048

[Beagle]

Oh, and needless to say, the Romanian referendum against the amnesty for corruption crimes is passing and passing easily.

[Oryxslayer]

Romania,

Unofficial opinion poll, at 16.00 CEST (17:00 local time)
PSD 26.7
PNL 25,9
USR 23,1
ProRO 5,8
UDMR 5,4
Alde 4,8
PMP 4,5

From Europe Elects Blog, not their twitter.

[Tender Branson]

The 15.5% for the combined Greens here should be a good omen for the German Greens ...

In polls before the election, the Greens were polling between 6-10% and NOW at 2%, so they underpolled by 5% !

The SPÖ is the big loser in all of this.

[Oryxslayer]

More favorable for DISY and less for AKEL than the previous exit. I'm just watching this election (not following it), so no idea if this means a seat changes hands in such a small constituency.

[Tender Branson]

The Ö24 exit poll by Research Affairs is a bit different:



ÖVP: +8%
SPÖ: n.c.
FPÖ: -2%
Greens: -2.5%
NEOS: +1%
NOW: +1%
KPÖ: +1%

vs. ORF/APA/ATV:



ÖVP: +7.5%
SPÖ: -0.5%
FPÖ: -2.5%
Greens: -1%
NEOS: n.c.
NOW: +2%
KPÖ: +1%

[mubar]

Apparently Finland's Ministry of Justice plans to publish the results of the advance voting immediately after the polls close at 8pm local time (7pm Central European Time). Since the advance voting turnout was 21.2% and in recent elections about half of the votes have been cast in advance (suggesting that the Finnish turnout will raise to 41%-45% at least), this would mean that a significant part of the actual count in Finland will be public 4 hours early (before polls are closed everywhere). If the election day votes are then counted and published normally, its very likely that the complete Finnish results are out before polls close in Italy. Not sure how this would match with European Commission rules.

Finnish polls predict a win for the Greens, and while advance vote is up everywhere, the increase is highest in big cities which again suggests a Green surge. The most losses are expected for Centre Party (ALDE, though more agrarian than liberal), the more modest advance voting turnout increases in countryside seem to agree on that.