European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Tender Branson]

The ORF/APA/ATV trend projection will be updated in 1 hour to include a lot more interviews with voters that were done today ...

[Diouf]

In Brussels, it seems that ALDE + Renaissance (Macron) + USR PLUS will be showed together in the results section at the request of these parties, so should be almost official that they will form a common group after the election.

[DavidB.]

Prognosis Germany:

CDU-CSU 27.5
SPD 15.5
Greens 20.5
AfD 10.5
Linke 5.5
FDP 5.5
Partei 2.5
FW 2
Others 10%>

[Diouf]

ARD prognosis predicts 1 seat for Volt and 3 for die Partei

[tomhguy]

AfD seems low

[Oryxslayer]

Prognosis Germany:

CDU-CSU 27.5
SPD 15.5
Greens 20.5
AfD 10.5
Linke 5.5
FDP 5.5
Partei 2.5
FW 2
Others 10%>

RIP  SPD, especially since their base is the older age group which is more likely to go and vote in every election. Also...was Linke expected to do this bad?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132678316698292224

[mubar]

Finnish polls predict a win for the Greens, and while advance vote is up everywhere, the increase is highest in big cities which again suggests a Green surge.

Do you mean they will become the biggest party?

That's not completely out of the question, but no, the latest poll just sees Greens as second biggest after the NCP (EPP). NCP would be biggest as always in Euro elections here. But Greens are expected to have a large increase of 5-8 points, while NCP is predicted to lose 2-3 points.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132678987501789185
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132679934919544835

[Walmart_shopper]

AfD seems low

They've been happily for the world enduring a quiet collapse for a while.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132678316698292224

That's really bad for Syriza, actually.

[Diouf]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132678316698292224

That's really bad for Syriza, actually.

EuropeElects has the Varoufakis party, MeRA25, at 4%, which has probably hurt Syriza. Would be funny if they win a seat in Greece, while Varoufakis himself does not manage to win a seat in Germany.

[rob in cal]

  If Austria numbers are correct would FPO feel satisfied and OVP disappointed?  A Green surge and SPO low number seems reasonable as similar trends are occuring elsewhere, with Greens doing well and probably winning over most of their new voters from other left-wing parties.

[Tender Branson]

From the SORA projection:

"Austria should exit the EU."



86% No
12% Yes

ÖVP-voters: 93-7 No
FPÖ-voters: 50-43 Yes

SPÖ-voters: 95-3 No
Green-voters: 100-0 No
NEOS-voters: 97-4 No

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Projection by ARD for the entire European parliament



Mostly based on mix of exit polls and opinion polls (i.e. take with a huge grain of salt since no results from FR, IT etc.)

They also showed an alternative composition of the EU Parliament with a new right-wing faction that the AfD wants to create and join.

[Beezer]

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132693323246899205

[Helsinkian]

KOK continues to benefit from low turnout in European elections in Finland.

And it's actually 48% counted. 21% was the turnout in early voting.

[Mike88]

Portugal - Turnout at 16:00:

2019 23.37%
2014 26.31%
2009 26.82%

[tomhguy]

Where can I see election results (online)?

[DavidB.]

Where can I see election results (online)?

In this thread. What kind of question is this?

[DavidB.]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132698986605887489

[Diouf]

In Denmark, we will have an exit poll when polls close at 20.00. At 18.00, turnout was already 56.6%, and it seems sure that the turnout record of 59.5% in 2009 will be broken. We are likely to end up around 64%.

In Romania turnout seems high. Several other countries report long rows outside Romanian embassies with hours of waiting time. Just poor organization or deliberate by the government?

[Umengus]

France (exit polls)

RN: 23-26
Lrem: 19-22
LR 11-13
Greens 7-10
LFI: 7-8
PS: 5

[mubar]

If Finland early voting turnout was 21.2% and 47.5% is now counted, it suggests about 45% total turnout, significantly up from last time.

With early voting results, the 13 Finnish MEPs would be: KOK, SDP 3 each, VIHR, KESK, PS 2 each, VAS 1.

So KESK and SFP would each lose 1 to SDP and VIHR.

In 2014 KESK and SDP did better in advance voting than on election day, while VIHR and SFP improved on election day, others stayed the same. If the same trends hold today, then SFP should easily pass 6% and receive their 1 seat, while SDP would again get only 2 seats.