European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[jaichind]

France (exit polls)

RN: 23-26
Lrem: 19-22
LR 11-13
Greens 7-10
LFI: 7-8
PS: 5

Looks pretty good.  Was hoping for LR to better than thia but I will take it.

[thumb21]

Someone is illegally "leaking" the Cypriot results,   

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132699366207184896

[Lord Halifax]

"Writer and academic Niyazi Kızılyürek (AKEL - GUE/NGL) becomes the first Turkish Cypriot to be elected as a member of the European Parliament for Cyprus and the first to be elected in public office in the Republic of Cyprus since the 1960s."

[Diouf]

Someone is illegally "leaking" the Cypriot results,   

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132699366207184896

So it seems like status quo seat-wise in Cyprus. 2 for DISY, 2 for AKEL, 1 for DIKO, 1 for EDEK.

[Lord Halifax]

It looks like turnout will be high in Poland. Who does that benefit?

[jaichind]

It looks like turnout will be high in Poland. Who does that benefit?

I have to assume the Centrist pro-EU bloc

[urutzizu]

Any livestreams for French exit polls?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4XXfzzS9uE

[DavidB.]

Ipsos prognosis:

RN 23.2%
LREM 21.9%
EELV 12.8%
LR 8.3%
LFI 6.7%
PS 6.7%
DLF 3.6%
G.s 3.4%

[Mike88]

Portugal: Polls have closed in Continental Portugal and Madeira. Still open in Azores.

Turnout projections by the main TV networks:

RTP1: 30-35%

SIC: 29.5-33.5%

[DavidB.]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132708479737765888

Really bad for DF considering that New Right and Paludan weren't on the ballot (but then they're probably disproportionally affected by lower turnout - but that wasn't a problem last time...). They may not even retain their second seat on these numbers, I think.

[Diouf]

Exit poll for Denmark by Epinion for DR.
If true, horrible result for DPP and People's Movement against EU. No polls have had the latter so low, where a seat is almost impossible. Great results for SPP and Social Liberals in the upper band of the polls. Conservatives just about survive.

Social Democrats 23.6% 3 seats (4 if UK leaves)
SPP 13.0% 2 seats

Liberals 20.6% 3 seats
Conservatives 5.6% 1 seat
Liberal Alliance 2.3% 0 seats

Social Liberals 9.7% 2 seats
Alternative 3.7% 0 seats

DPP 11.8% 1 seat

Red-Green Alliance 6.7% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 3.1% 0 seats

[Mike88]

Portugal: Polls have closed in Continental Portugal and Madeira. Still open in Azores.

Turnout projections by the main TV networks:

RTP1: 30-35%

SIC: 29.5-33.5%

Turnout averages gives us a turnout of 32% (-1.7 compared with 2014). In terms of actual votes, this means that around 3,443,000 voters may have cast a ballot (+159,000 compared with 2014).

[jaichind]

Ipsos prognosis:

RN 23.2%
LREM 21.9%
EELV 12.8%
LR 8.3%
LFI 6.7%
PS 6.7%
DLF 3.6%
G.s 3.4%

Wow.  How come LR dopped so much from the exit poll

[Lord Halifax]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132708479737765888

Really bad for DF considering that New Right and Paludan weren't on the ballot (but then they're probably disproportionally affected by lower turnout - but that wasn't a problem last time...). They may not even retain their second seat on these numbers, I think.

turnout was record high...

[DavidB.]

turnout was record high...

Sure, but still about 20 points lower than in a GE, and I suspect many of those are working-class potential DF voters.

[Helsinkian]

Prognosis in Finland:

National Coalition Party 20.4%
Greens 15.4%
Social Democrats 15%
Finns Party 14.2%
Centre 13.7%
Left 6.9%
Swedish People's Party 6.3%
Christian Democrats 4.9%

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132709279679602689

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132710673765535744

Big if True. Takeaways:

The Tory vote held up much better than projected pre-count. In contrast, the Labour vote did not. The Lib-Dem surge was real.

Farage didn't do as good as polls said. It also looks like he pulled closer to equal from both of the big two, rather then near exclusively from the Conservatives. But maybe this is just the Lib-Dem surge pulling Labour voters.

Seatwise, Remainers only have a 2 seat majority, much less than polls projected.

[Diouf]

Megafon exit poll for TV2. A fair bit better for DPP which secures them 2 seats. Another poor exit poll for the Far Left alliance, which only looks likely to get 1 seat, which means the People's Movement against EU loses it seats (it has been represented since the first EP election in 1979). Another good poll for SPP and Social Liberals, but their second seats are much more doubtful here than in the Epinion poll.

Social Democrats 22.4% 3 seats
SPP 11.7% 2 seats

Liberals 20.4% 3 seats
Conservatives 5.7% 1 seat
Liberal Alliance 2.9% 0 seats

DPP 14.2% 2 seats

Social Liberals 9.1% 1 seat (2 if UK leaves)
Alternative 3.2% 0 seats

Red-Green Alliance 5.8% 1 seat
People's Movement against EU 4.6% 0 seats

[Former President tack50]

turnout was record high...

Sure, but still about 20 points lower than in a GE, and I suspect many of those are working-class potential DF voters.

So no much change from the General Election other than a Vox drop?

[D4C]

Big if True. Takeaways:

The Tory vote held up much better than projected pre-count. In contrast, the Labour vote did not. The Lib-Dem surge was real.

Farage didn't do as good as polls said. It also looks like he pulled closer to equal from both of the big two, rather then near exclusively from the Conservatives. But maybe this is just the Lib-Dem surge pulling Labour voters.

Seatwise, Remainers only have a 2 seat majority, much less than polls projected.

Honestly, I find it quite hard to believe that the Tories will win 10 seats.

Does anybody know when the Italian polls close?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132715622129917953

GAD3 has more favorable numbers for both the PSOE and Vox.

[Helsinkian]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132709279679602689

BritainElects is a Twitter account. What's the source here?

[tomhguy]

I think that this is just their prediction.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132709279679602689

BritainElects is a Twitter account. What's the source here?

Apparently it’s based on turnout figures thus far. Nothing based on exit polls or results at all.

[DaWN]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132709279679602689

BritainElects is a Twitter account. What's the source here?

Apparently it’s based on turnout figures thus far. Nothing based on exit polls or results at all.

i.e just a glorified guess