European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Helsinkian]

So, UK's South East region just elected two MEPs who are both named Alexandra Phillips. Wild.

https://twitter.com/Spikeyorks/status/1132789745648644096

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132784126757613569

[Tintrlvr]

So, UK's South East region just elected two MEPs who are both named Alexandra Phillips. Wild.

https://twitter.com/Spikeyorks/status/1132789745648644096

The Green one goes by Alex. (She's already an MEP.)

[PApolitics]

Anyone know why there are no results for the North of Ireland?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Nice to see a comfortable remain block in the Southeast. Proof that suburban trends are global and unstoppable.

[Helsinkian]

Anyone know why there are no results for the North of Ireland?

They start counting monday morning. Can't count on a sunday because religion or something.

[DavidB.]

The difference between FVD and GL is only a few hundred votes, but will decide who gets the 3rd and last Dutch post-Brexit seat (if Brexit still happens). Ten municipalities still have to report which should almost all benefit FVD, but an unknown number of postal votes from abroad still have to come in too.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nice to see a comfortable remain block in the Southeast. Proof that suburban trends are global and unstoppable.

A deeply stupid post even by your extremely low standards.

[SPQR]

Lega got more than the latest polls from 2 weeks ago, and about as much as the polls from a couple months ago.
M5S fell below what was considered as Di Maio's "survival threshold". They are in lots of trouble, they also suffered from the low turnout in the South.
PD are now the second party so it's a victory, still lots of work to do in the Southern regions. Also, the result in Umbria is horrible (half the votes of Lega in a former leftwing stronghold).
Fratelli d'Italia also appear to have a very strong result, they managed to survive and thrive regardless of Lega's great growth.
La Sinistra below Europa Verde is just LOL.

[Senator Incitatus]

Soooo, it seems hard remain is doing very well.

Hard leave (ukip + brexit) is underperforming everywhere compared to 2016 ref

The big question mark: of the voters who stuck with con and lab.....are they leavers or remainers?

I mean, isn't this generally to be expected? In theory, the OUT vote could have meant many different things including Hard Brexit. But there was really only one intention behind IN votes, which was the status quo.

[kaoras]

Lega got more than the latest polls from 2 weeks ago, and about as much as the polls from a couple months ago.
M5S fell below what was considered as Di Maio's "survival threshold". They are in lots of trouble, they also suffered from the low turnout in the South.
PD are now the second party so it's a victory, still lots of work to do in the Southern regions. Also, the result in Umbria is horrible (half the votes of Lega in a former leftwing stronghold).
Fratelli d'Italia also appear to have a very strong result, they managed to survive and thrive regardless of Lega's great growth.
La Sinistra below Europa Verde is just LOL.

There is like 20% of the vote counted, you think it won't change?. I honestly don't see PD winning Lazio but losing Toscana and Emilia Romagna either.

[AndyHogan14]

England and Wales
Hard Remain: 34.8%
(Lib Dems, Greens, and Plaid)
Hard Leave: 36.8%
(Brexit, UKIP)

SNP will likely clean up in Scotland to give "Remain" parties an overall edge. If you assume a majority of Labour voters are remainers and a majority of Conservative voters are Brexiteers, once again, you are looking at a country that is extremely divided over the idea of Brexit.

I remember reading that 3/4 of Labour voters want a second referendum, so if we add that 3/4 to the "Remain" side, would become 45.8% and the "Leave" side would be at 40.4%. The Tory vote is a lot harder to decipher...sure, a majority probably want Brexit, but what is worse to them? A no-deal Brexit or a second referendum?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

England and Wales
Hard Remain: 34.8%
(Lib Dems, Greens, and Plaid)
Hard Leave: 36.8%
(Brexit, UKIP)

SNP will likely clean up in Scotland to give "Remain" parties an overall edge. If you assume a majority of Labour voters are remainers and a majority of Conservative voters are Brexiteers, once again, you are looking at a country that is extremely divided over the idea of Brexit.

You left out CUK

[Antonio the Sixth]

When are we going to get Scotland results?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Nice to see a comfortable remain block in the Southeast. Proof that suburban trends are global and unstoppable.

A deeply stupid post even by your extremely low standards.

I was obviously kidding, although it is obvious that the UK is moving towards the same metropolitan/hinterland political divide as the USA, and the Home Counties are no longer what they once were.

[parochial boy]

When are we going to get Scotland results?

Tomorrow, Catholics in the Hebrides refuse to count on Sundays...

[AndyHogan14]

England and Wales
Hard Remain: 34.8%
(Lib Dems, Greens, and Plaid)
Hard Leave: 36.8%
(Brexit, UKIP)

SNP will likely clean up in Scotland to give "Remain" parties an overall edge. If you assume a majority of Labour voters are remainers and a majority of Conservative voters are Brexiteers, once again, you are looking at a country that is extremely divided over the idea of Brexit.

You left out CUK

Change UK is in the "other" part of the website that I am looking at, so it is hard to say what they are at across England and Wales. However, they seem to be at around 2.5-3% which would give "Remain" a plurality.

[SPQR]

Lega got more than the latest polls from 2 weeks ago, and about as much as the polls from a couple months ago.
M5S fell below what was considered as Di Maio's "survival threshold". They are in lots of trouble, they also suffered from the low turnout in the South.
PD are now the second party so it's a victory, still lots of work to do in the Southern regions. Also, the result in Umbria is horrible (half the votes of Lega in a former leftwing stronghold).
Fratelli d'Italia also appear to have a very strong result, they managed to survive and thrive regardless of Lega's great growth.
La Sinistra below Europa Verde is just LOL.

There is like 20% of the vote counted, you think it won't change?. I honestly don't see PD winning Lazio but losing Toscana and Emilia Romagna either.

PD wins Lazio because the center-right vote is more splitted across Lega, FI and FDI, with the latter getting more votes than in Toscana and Emilia-Romagna.

Anyway the projections for the national result should be fairly reliable at this point.

[AndyHogan14]

Great Britain:
With some results from Scotland

Hard Remain: 40.54%
(Lib Dem, Greens, SNP, Change UK)
Hard Leave: 35.11%
(Brexit, UKIP, English Democrats)
Labour: 14.12%
Conservative: 9.09%
Other: 1.13%

If you give 3/4 of Labour to "Hard Remain" as some polls in the past have suggested for remainers within that party, "Hard Remain" then has an absolute majority at 51.13%.

[Donerail]

When are we going to get Scotland results?

Tomorrow, Catholics in the Hebrides refuse to count on Sundays...

Based on everything that's in so far, however, it's 3 SNP 1 LibDem 1 Brexit 1 Tory

[rob in cal]

 Rostock Germany has all five major parties in the teens.

[Mike88]

Final results from Portugal:

33.4% PS (+1.9), 9 seats (+1)
21.9% PSD, 6 (nc)
  9.8% BE (+5.2), 2 (+1)
  6.9% CDU (-5.7), 2 (-1)
  6.2% CDS, 1 (nc)
  5.1% PAN (+3.4), 1 (+1)
  1.9% Alliance (new), 0
  1.8% Livre (-0.4), 0
  1.5% Basta! (+0.6), 0
  1.0% NC (new), 0
  0.9% IL (new), 0
  0.8% PCTP (-0.9), 0
  0.5% PNR (nc), 0
  0.5% PDR (new), 0 (-1)
  0.4% PURP (new), 0
  0.3% PTP (-0.4), 0
  0.2% MAS (-0.2)
  7.0% Blank/Invalid

31.4% Turnout (-2.3)

By EU parties: PES - 33.4%, 9 seats (+1); EPP - 28.1% 7 seats (nc); GUE-NGL - 16.7%, 4 seats (nc); EGP - 5.1%, 1 seat (+1)

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1132794993758941185

Soooo...a plurality in favor of "remain" and a majority against a "hard" Brexit? Sounds familiar.

[Joe Republic]

The South East will have two MEPs named Alexandra Phillips?

[AndyHogan14]

Great Britain:
With some results from Scotland

Hard Remain: 40.54%
(Lib Dem, Greens, SNP, Change UK)
Hard Leave: 35.11%
(Brexit, UKIP, English Democrats)
Labour: 14.12%
Conservative: 9.09%
Other: 1.13%

If you give 3/4 of Labour to "Hard Remain" as some polls in the past have suggested for remainers within that party, "Hard Remain" then has an absolute majority at 51.13%.

The BBC is saying that Northern Ireland is going to have 1 DUP, 1 Sinn Féin, and 1 SDLP MEP, which would also be a majority in favor of remain.