European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

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Will Macrons En Marche! really join ALDE?! According to Macron himself he does not like the current groups in the EP. Could he create a new group with C's from Spain E+ from Italy and others from the Green/EFA and old ALDE groups?!

Remember Tapies Energie Radicale which created The Group of the European Radical Alliance (ERA). Whcin consisted off Energie Radicale, Scottish National Party, Pannella-Reformers List, People's Union/Flemish Free Democrats and Canarian Coalition.

The problem for Macron is getting to 7 countries. However, I agree that in principle, he would rather triangulate between the main groups than join one.

In Ireland the changes of PES representation depends on whether Nessa Childers can get re-elected in Dublin as an Independent. At this point, I have no idea as to her chances.

Otherwise I suspect change will depend on what the other Indies too. There should be a FF gain in Midlands-North West although difficult to say from whom...

Nessa Childers (S&D) says she is retiring. I would expect her Dublin constituency to be expanded, probably helping Fianna Fail (ALDE) and leaving one seat for the non-Sinn Féin left, though probably not Labour (S&D). Maybe a more left-wing socialist or a green.

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Ireland: Currently 4 GUE, 4 EPP, 1 S&D, 1 ALDE, 1 ECR. It is proposed to increase the seat total by 2, to 13. The ALDE MEP is independent Harkin, not their affiliate party Fianna Fáil's Crowley, who chose to sit with the ECR Eurotories and leave the FF parliamentary party. It's not clear whether Crowley has attended the Parliament since 2014 and he certainly hasn't voted in any divisions. He'll win re-election if nominated, though.

In Ireland, these elections are totally second-order. If Fine Gael (EPP) remain in power, I would expect Fianna Fáil (ALDE) to make 2 or 3 gains from new seats or independents like Harkin (ALDE) and Flanagan (GUE) in Midlands-North West, and Childers (S&D) in Dublin, who announced her retirement. On the other hand, if a coalition involving Sinn Féin (GUE) comes to power, Sinn Féin may lose a seat to the rest of the left. Either way, the broad left should retain Childers's seat in the Dublin area. These people are currently scattered like seeds in half a dozen mini-parties from Labour to Workers Unemployed Action. This could mean GUE, Greens or S&D, depending on the candidate.

One reasonable scenario would be 4 GUE (n/c), 4 EPP (n/c), 4 ALDE (+3), 1 ECR (n/c), 0 S&D (-1).

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Probably. The UK, with its very low turnout is leaving. And for the first time since 1999, there are no new Eastern countries to reduce turnout. (http://www.ukpolitical.info/european-parliament-election-turnout.htm)

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Quatremer sometimes has a lively fantasy, but I'm guessing accounts like the below will not be a great endorsement for Barnier.

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https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/a-very-eu-coup-martin-selmayrs-astonishing-power-grab/

It is deluded to think former Prime Ministers and Foreign Affairs ministers serve as Commissioners at the indulgence not of the heads of government, but of a glorified fixer.

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It's hard to divine the intentions behind the movements of the Europarties, but it doesn't really matter because they don't do any campaigning anyway. I mean, it might matter if racists like Geert Wilders and anti-European gadflies like Le Pen were going to win, but they are not.

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It's hard to divine the intentions behind the movements of the Europarties, but it doesn't really matter because they don't do any campaigning anyway. I mean, it might matter if racists like Geert Wilders and anti-European gadflies like Le Pen were going to win, but they are not.

Agreed, however there is still value in the macro parties in the sense that even some weak form of party discipline is more effecient policymaking than no parties whatsoever. The actual members of the EPP (as opposed to the ones that just sit in the group) for example are well whipped on technical issues that don't make national media enough to have an electoral impact (which is like 80% of the EP's actual power). Some get picked off by lobbying/national interest but eventually even the fanatical lobbyists would enjoy a system where you can walk into one faction leader's office and not 27.

But you're right We'll only see this more clearly if/when the EPP-SnD-ALDE triumvirate of establishment or "pro-Maastricht" parties lose a majority and some more interesting coalitions will have to take place.

Exactly - I meant to write - It doesn't matter what they decide until after the election is complete!

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"introducing obligatory thresholds is recognised by constitutional tradition as a legitimate means of guaranteeing that parliaments are able to function" ... The Parliament "considers this measure to be important for safeguarding the functioning of the European Parliament, since it will avoid further fragmentation". Or, a lot of garbage to protect big parties, especially rapporteur Jo Leinen's SPD, plus the usual power-grab by unpopular EU institutions vis-a-vis states. (link in English)

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Fair enough for the Netherlands I guess - but really this exactly the sort of mind-boggling stupidity that just gives ammunition to eurosceptics.

If people don't take the European parliament elections seriously, there is a reason for that, and finding ways to tell people they are voting "wrong" is only going to be counterproductive.

Like, the most legitimate complain people have about the EU is that it isn't democratic enough, why not do something about that?

1. Yes. 2. Yes, but "they are wrong" is also likely to be what European Parliament members sincerely think. Someone elected, like, 4th on a closed list in a big country, who may genuinely never have to meet normal people. 3. Because more MEPs and power for Germany and France will be popular nowhere else.

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If LREM wins 20 seats, that's not going to be enough to dictate what happens as a member of ALDE, especially considering Germany's FDP ought to win at least 8 seats, to form the centre of a Eurosceptic counter-weight. For now, I would assume LREM does not join ALDE, because I cannot see Macron harnessing himself within Europe to Verhofstadt at best, and Rutte at worst (from his perspective).

Many people think LREM will form a new party with ALDE sympathisers, but after the next election, many of the strongest ALDE parties are likely to take a position on European integration cool or hostile to the Macron agenda: FDP, VVD, Keskusta, SaS, ANO, Venstre, Fianna Fáil and maybe the Swedish liberal-centre parties could all be contributing 3 MEPs or more to the total. The more pro-Macron parties would be Ciudadanos, the Benelux liberals excluding VVD, a couple of the small fractions like NEOS and of course MoDem.

Macron would need to split a few more national parties away from non-ALDE groups to avoid being leader of the 5th or 6th largest European Parliamentary party. Overall, wouldn't the safer tactic for LREM be simply to join S&D?

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Anyway, the Euro-parties are much more useful for small countries, who need to have their voices heard in the European institutions otherwise dominated by big countries. EPP in particular is a pretext to meet Angela Merkel. France has weight in the other EU institutions, and a bilateral power relationship with Germany, leaving Macron with less to gain from participation in the formal parliamentary structures and the Euro-parties than, say, Viktor Orbán.

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Besides Macron’s and Varoufakis’s possible groups, are there any other possible new groups?

There will inevitably be restructurings as the UK Tories and Ukip Brexit from two of the right-wing factions. I would be stunned if YV wins enough seats. As for Macron, problem is he is way outnumbered by ALDE MEPs who are too Euro-sceptic for him, anyone from FF and Kesk in the squishy centre to SaS on the dark-steel right. If you're NEOS, why quit them to join a smaller group?

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Well, they are terrified of Brexit of course, but check the De Wever link up there. Cameron-type cheap talk against Europeans is alive and well in bloody Belgium of all places. That's what leads to these problems, when the political establishment is happy to cede its prerogatives in the name of cheap talk.

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Helle for prezident?

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https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/thorning-schmidt-makes-brussels-appearance-promotes-conservative-social-democracy/

Looks more like either
(a) an attempt to undermine the Vestager-Macron Eurofederalist campaign or
(b) an attempt to support the anti-foreigner forces at home in her party.

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Er... except FDP will probably get 8 next time, and PD won't get 25... I also doubt the Verhofstadt people will fall in behind Macron, certainly not Estonia's Reform, probably not D66.

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The Fianna Fail MEP reps for ECR, iirc; not ALDE (although apparently he's always absent so probably won't return).

He's always absent but he probably will return.

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How many seats will Macron and Renzi win? Naively, I would guess 24 for Macron and friends, low teens for a united PD/Renzi, single figures for Renzi on his own?

If we are indeed talking about 130 seats, it's foolish for the two lists to run separately. Macron has no European weight - just the Franco-German alliance, plus a Spanish opposition party. ALDE already have weak cohesion, contested leadership and no national influence. Neither would lose anything by running together.

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Salvini openly discussing forming a "nationalist bloc" for the 2019 elections

Usual Politico garbage, the idea that these people will control the agenda is nonsensical. They might do as well as Greens/EFA plus GUE/NGL, who between them, don't exactly control Europe.

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If LREM win 32 out of 78 French seats like they claim, I will eat a hat! They will win low twenties, won't they?

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Magnette -> PS would elegantly close the circle begun by Valls -> Ciutadans and Puigdemont -> N-VA.

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Manfred Weber for Commission president?

What?

"Who? Who?"

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If they seriously nominate an utter non-entity like Weber, M****n S****yr will really be in control of the Commission.

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M****n S****yr

lol, seriously?

I don't want him to see it on Google Alerts.

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It sounds to me like a coalition ("Chaque parti va garder ses symboles"), not much different to the old arrangement between the ALDE Party and Bayrou's EDP. As long as there's no element of so-called trans-European democracy (i.e. Franco-German pact), surely nobody will object to adding 15-20 French MEPs...

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Anyone have an explainer on the divisions in the GUE-NGL, please?

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Well, I mean, GUE-NGL is home to Die Linke, Mélenchon but also Ireland's SF (oops, I wrote Denmark's SF!). It is hard to think of parties even in ALDE that have less to do with each other. You can't make a European group of people who all agree with each other, though the Greens come close. However, I would also guess that ALDE-Macron will take parties from EPP. Let's get real: the EP groups are about power brokerage, and EPP in particular is the Merkel club, but Merkel is on the way out. On that note:

Did I forget something?

All signs now suggest ALDE and Macron will form a joint list, through the elegant device of opposing the Spitzenkandidat system. They might, just, win the most seats - who would want a split in that context?

I suspect GUE-NGL and Maintenant le peuple will end up coalescing together. It's a small political space. In a much larger space, the three right-wing blocs will probably end up as two, maybe one for the governmental right-wingers and nationalists, and one for the anti-system Putinists and German nats, but I honestly don't see either close to "winning" the European elections. At any rate, it's probably the #1 pre-election bloc that wins that perception, rather than the post-election blocs.