European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

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GUE-NL might do well. They'll at least have a few (new) seats from Belgium, and also would win a bit in the Netherlands, Sweden and France.

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What with the talk about Macron's attempt to create his own European Parliament grouping, everyone seems to have missed that Mélenchon seems to be trying to do the same thing. It seems to be the result of him getting pissed off with GUE/NGL refusing to expel SYRIZA for being sellouts and trying to launch his own Eurosceptic left-wing movement.

Utter vanity though this may be, it's probably still more interesting than what Varoufakis and Hamon are doing, given that it's made up of parties that are actually somewhat successful in their home countries and likely to win seats in the European Parliament. They would, however, need a seventh country for an EP group, and I'm not sure who that could be? Sahra Wagenknecht's movement is the natural missing link, but we're still not even sure if that will even contest elections. The Belgian PTB/PVDA, perhaps (though they might be a little too orthodox), or the Slovenian Left. One to watch, anyway.

Hmm, i believe the Belgian PVDA-PTB might follow FI, because it's very popular currently in French-speaking Belgium, and French-speaking Belgium has of course followed the French presidential campaign in which JLM did very well. Someone even made a new (irrelevant) party that was named Wallonie Insoumise, based on FI (which could ally with other far-left groups / parties in a far-left alliance in French-speaking Belgium to contest the 2019 European, federal and regional elections, just like they've done in 2014). I also believe the Flemish far-left also feels more related to the Scandinavian Left Parties, than of Eastern-European far-left parties. I receive the party magazine every two months, and it has often articles in it, in which they talk with pride about the success of Ada Colau in Barcelona, esp. in relationship with the upcoming local elections here in Belgium.

PVDA-PTB will most likely win 1-3 seats.

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Which group shall N-VA join. It does not feel natural ally of Lega.

The Lega are in ENF and the N-VA are in ECR, so they're currently not in the same group in the first place. I think it's not unlikely the N-VA will be leaving ECR after the Tories are gone and PiS will take over the place: the group will be dominated by right-wing populists of a different, more nativist and anti-establishment type than the N-VA. I guess N-VA could join the EPP or ALDE, with EPP being more likely (but CD&V or MR/Open VLD would have to be okay with it, which is why it didn't happen last time; perhaps it's different now that they have been in a coalition for four years). But they could stay in ECR too.

I'm placing my bets on Dutch Forum voor Democratie, who are likely to win 2-3 seats, joining ECR. Their youth movement, JFVD, are already in the process of being associated with the European Young Conservatives, ECR's youth movement. After the UK Tories are gone, it's probably a right fit for FVD. Associating themselves with somewhat less controversial RRWPs like Finnish PS, Swedish SD and Danish DF seems like a good move. Dutch CU-SGP are already in ECR but I don't think the SGP would mind sitting with FVD; the CU representative might be less happy, however, and I don't know if they could veto it. Though FVD arguably fit much better in ECR than CU and will probably bring more seats with them.

If Puigdemont gets on the list and N-VA joins EPP, than Puigdemont and members of PP would both be part of EPP. I believe it won't happen though and CD&V which is called the opposition party inside our government will probably veto it. I see N-VA having more chance to apply for ALDE as a conservative-liberal party just like VVD and PdeCAT. Though, it would still be weird in some sense, because I remember lots of N-VA politicians be critical of Europe in general, and some on the right and youth wings supporting Le Pen in that race vs Macron. But those EU fractions are inevitably a big tent.

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What with the talk about Macron's attempt to create his own European Parliament grouping, everyone seems to have missed that Mélenchon seems to be trying to do the same thing. It seems to be the result of him getting pissed off with GUE/NGL refusing to expel SYRIZA for being sellouts and trying to launch his own Eurosceptic left-wing movement.

Utter vanity though this may be, it's probably still more interesting than what Varoufakis and Hamon are doing, given that it's made up of parties that are actually somewhat successful in their home countries and likely to win seats in the European Parliament. They would, however, need a seventh country for an EP group, and I'm not sure who that could be? Sahra Wagenknecht's movement is the natural missing link, but we're still not even sure if that will even contest elections. The Belgian PTB/PVDA, perhaps (though they might be a little too orthodox), or the Slovenian Left. One to watch, anyway.

Hmm, i believe the Belgian PVDA-PTB might follow FI, because it's very popular currently in French-speaking Belgium, and French-speaking Belgium has of course followed the French presidential campaign in which JLM did very well. Someone even made a new (irrelevant) party that was named Wallonie Insoumise, based on FI (which could ally with other far-left groups / parties in a far-left alliance in French-speaking Belgium to contest the 2019 European, federal and regional elections, just like they've done in 2014). I also believe the Flemish far-left also feels more related to the Scandinavian Left Parties, than of Eastern-European far-left parties. I receive the party magazine every two months, and it has often articles in it, in which they talk with pride about the success of Ada Colau in Barcelona, esp. in relationship with the upcoming local elections here in Belgium.

PVDA-PTB will most likely win 1-3 seats.

Intersting. I was told the "new" PVDA-PTB (post-Ludo Martens) and Podemos have a same intellectual "godmother" in the form of Chantalle Mouffe, who also influenced Mélenchon's 2017 campaign. and her emphasis on localism is what helped both you guys and Podemos become implanted electorally. No surprise Colau is popular.

I think though that PVDA-PTB never really criticise the EU the way Méluche does. They talk about social dumping, ending neo-liberal hegemony in Europe, etc. But they, perhaps wisely, never commit to anti-European rhetoric the way Meluche does.

EDIT ; and on the subject of the N-VA, I find it hard to see them joining ALDE led by Verhofstadt.

Hmm, i think PVDA-PTB is soft Eurosceptic like most parties of GUE-NGL are. I need to read a bit more on what you just said, but i think those parties are similar. PVDA-PTB definitely has good contacts with Podemos, and the youth wing of it, has also participated in anti-Macron protests together with FI.

If VLD leaves ALDE and join Macron's En Marche, N-VA could join ALDE. On economic policies, they have similar views, on social they share some views, but disagree with others. I'm not sure, but it will be ECR or ALDE, while VLD will join LREM or stay in ALDE. Without Verhofstadt, i wiuld have betted on them joining LREM, but because he's basically the front guy of ALDE, i'm not so sure of it.

Has someone a good idea on what European political parties we will get?

EPP
S&D
ECR
ALDE
Greens-EFA
EFDD
ENF
GUE(-NGL)

New:
DiEM25 (supported by Loach, Chomsky and Assange)
The Movement (supported by Bannon)
En Marche
Now The People

Did I forget something?

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Does someone also know why Die Linke keeps supporting Syriza or doesn't join Melenchon's movement, and what is Syriza going to do if they're left out (apply for membership of S&D, Green-EFA or even a Eurosceptic parliamentary group like EFDD?).

If Macron draws enough left-liberals away, M5S might actually join ALDE.

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If Macron draws enough left-liberals away, M5S might actually join ALDE.

So what's left in ALDE would be largely based on the Dutch VVD, German FDP and Danish Venstre. I'm sure they'll love being associated with M5S' reckless financial policies.

Well, they could potentially join DiEM25 together with Syriza, Czech Pirates and generation.s. I can't seem them join ECR, ENFP or EPP either. They could possibly join Macron's movement because of their policies on direct democracy and reforming Europe.

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GUE - NGL: 96,67%
Greens / EFA: 94,44%
S&D: 84.44%
ALDE/ADLE: 51.67%
EFDD: 35.56%
EPP: 33.33%
ENF: 25.45%
ECR: 9.44%

Best politicians:
Barbara Spinelli (independent, GUE-NGL, Italy) - 100%
Ernest Urtasun (Catalan Greens) - 100%
Merja Kyllonen (Left Alliance, GUE-NGL, Finland) - 100%

Highest political parties:
Left Alliance (Finland - GUE/NGL) - 100%
EH Bildu (Spain/Basque - GUE/NGL) - 100%
Initiative for Catalonia Greens (Spain/Catalonia - Greens/EFA) - 100%
Latvian Russian Union (Latvia - Greens/EFA) - 97.78%
Podemos (Spain - GUE/NGL) - 97.66%

Voted Greens/EFA in 2014, will vote GUE-NGL in 2019.

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Some friends and I are planning a tour of battlefields in northern France and Belgium next spring, right around the time of the European Parliament elections.  In fact, we're aiming to be in Brussels on Sat. May 25.

Are there any big political rallies around the EU elections?  Are there lots of candidate signs, either in the cities and towns, or in the rural areas?  If any Belgian or French members wish to PM me, it would be much appreciated.  You may even get a free meal, where you can explain to us all about d'Hondt divisors.

Hmm. The European parliament elections are being held together with federal and regional elections, because we have compulsory voting (and thus more elections are being held together). The national, regional and european elections are being held on Sun. May 26, so you'll notice it, but the theme won't be the European elections. Everyone will be talking about the federal elections.

I also live quite close to the battlegrounds... I live almost 15 km / 20 km to the east of it.

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Yeah, I can't see many places where S&D will do well honestly.

Portugal, Bulgaria and Malta seem the only places where it will make decent gains (though the latter only has 6 seats so a net of +1 would be the best scenario). Maybe in Latvia as well.

 And there might be chances (albeit not particularly great ones) of small +1 net gains in Sweden, Denmark or Spain. But it certainly won't be enough to counteract the 20 Labour MEPs leaving and the expected collapses of PD in Italy and PS in France

They'll do terrible in Belgium as well, because if the local elections turns out to be bad here (and it almost certainly will), the chairman of the Flemish social democrats might leave. Greens will have momentum because they'll have a very good result on what we can already call green sunday, and on the far-left, the marxists also make large gains on the social democrats, especially in the south. I expect those parties will make use of the momentum & win elections in 2019 as well, and i can't see who can replace the current chairman. Few social democratic politicians are celebrities, so they might almost certainly pick an unknown and moderate candidate, while the party is also being alleged of corruption scandals. In the south, they've collapsed as well. In Flanders, it seems like they'll govern together with the party that actually made from them a scapegoat, and it seems many left-wing voters won't appreciate such a move, but they've already said they're being open to govern with nationalists (N-VA), and believe me, if that happens, they might've trouble to reach the electoral threshold.

Labour Party in the Netherlands meanwhile has also collapsed. In many Eastern European countries, the same happened (or it already did?).

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You know what is quite weird... There is a possibility i might be able to vote for Carles Puigdemont... The N-VA could put him on their list, and believe me i'm almost certain that he would be elected because there is strong pro-Catalonia support, especially among N-VA and VB voters. It might even attract voters.

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There is speculation that the number of countries necessary to form a group shall be reduced in next parliament (four countries). For LREM and Five-star-men, that shall be good news.

I think that would be a step in the right direcion. For some far-right / alt-right groups and the apparent split between Hamon / Syriza-led faction and LFI-faction it's a step in the right direction as well but i doubt it would be enough.

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Why are all parties so fractured in France. I mean i just heard Ségolène Royal could form her independent list, but what do they try to achieve here. Try to gain momentum and try to form a new political party on the left which will arise from the ashes of PS, trying to get out of the PS (which is a sinking ship, and not being affiliated with it). I don't understand why they all reject alliances. Is there still a possibility that g.s and PCF form an alliance? And what's the difference between the left-wing parties, and especially PCF and FI?

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Eum, why?





I don't think I can vote for them, even if i wanted too?

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More information. They have at least my signature, but i'm undecided whether to support them or GUE-NGL (PVDA). Most likely, they won't get on the ballot here. Otherwise, i might support them. They have good proposals & ideas.

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Well i'm 100% sure of my vote anyways. It's going to be GUE-NGL. The candidate they have selected is a very good pick, and they have a much bigger shot at actually electing someone than European spring. 

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My result:

1. S&D
2. Greens-EFA
3. GUE-NGL - my actual vote
4. ENF
5. ALDE
6. EPP
7. ECR

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My early prediction for the EU election, after the recent events:

37% ÖVP
30% SPÖ
12% NEOS
10% Greens
  9% FPÖ
  1% Europa
  1% KPÖ

OVP probably around 45% i think, and less for SPO and Greens.

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My early prediction for the EU election, after the recent events:

37% ÖVP
30% SPÖ
12% NEOS
10% Greens
  9% FPÖ
  1% Europa
  1% KPÖ

OVP probably around 45% i think, and less for SPO and Greens.

45% ?

No way. They only got 27% in 2014. It's even possible that the FPÖ does not as badly as I predict here and that NEOS will get a good result this time. That means the ÖVP would get no more than 38-40% at best.

Likely FPO won't lose that much, but if FPO wins only 9%, their voters will vote mainly for OVP.

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We will probably see a return of the three party system.

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Poll closing times for the 21 countries that are voting today (local time):

2pm: Luxemburg

3pm: Belgium

5pm: Austria, Cyprus

6pm: Germany, Greece

7pm: Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Slovenia

8pm: Denmark, France, Portugal, Romania, Spain

9pm: Poland, Sweden

11pm: Italy (needs to be nuked for such a time)

I don't know about you, but a 2 pm or 3 pm poll closing seems comically early to me.

We have mandatory voting, Closing time is 2pm, and 4pm for electronic voting, but it's a sunday.

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... for electronic voting.

What do you mean by electronic voting ? I thought only Estonia has it ?

voting on a computer, while half of the communities vote with a pencil and paper.