European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[TheSaint250]

We are over one year away from the European Parliament elections throughout the EU, so it’s time for a thread!

[TheSaint250]

The proposed system according to which the UK's seats would become a transnational constituency was sadly rejected. The idea was that people would have two votes: one "traditional" vote for a national party in a national constituency, one for European lists (liberals, social democrats, nationalists... you name it).

Would the European lists have been the European parties?

[TheSaint250]

For Dutch posters: is FvD planning on contesting the elections/joining an EU party or group?

[TheSaint250]

I found an article that seems pretty interesting and goes into depth about the backroom deals being developed. One thing that really caught my attention was this:

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Now this would be something.

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/985650610069495808

[TheSaint250]

France, Ifop poll

LREM-Modem: 27%
FN: 17%
LR: 15%
FI: 14%
PS: 7%
DLF: 6%
Others (under the 5% threshold): 14%

Still somewhat strong performance by FN. Would this keep FN in second place in terms of seats as well?

Also, I read that France was planning on scrapping the different districts and making the nation single-member. Is this true?

[TheSaint250]

Besides Macron’s and Varoufakis’s possible groups, are there any other possible new groups?

[TheSaint250]

It seems like without the Tories ECR and EFDD will be occupying relatively the same space, some to the left and others to the right of the mainstream in each group

[TheSaint250]

Is it pretty certain that AfD will move into ENF? It would make sense if they did, as I see them as possibly being the more hardcore of the RWPP (temporary halting of all immigration).

[TheSaint250]

It’s pretty interesting how well FN is doing. It seemed that 2014 and MLP’s second-round result would be its peak. Also, I would’ve expected DLF’s growth would put FN in third place.

[TheSaint250]

Article from politico.eu about the populists for the election next year: https://www.politico.eu/article/populist-plan-for-2019-election-puts-eu-in-cross-hairs/

Most interesting to me are:

1. Fidesz is in talks with ENF.

2. AfD is seeking to establish a new group with the FPÖ separate from the French National Rally, who AfD refers to as racist and anti-Semitic (I didn’t see that coming from AfD).

[TheSaint250]

PiS seems to want move to the EPP according to Polish media EU Observer is reporting

https://euobserver.com/tickers/142003

The weirdness continues

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1009134141458321408

I know this has been mentioned many times, but does anyone have more insight on this? The last thing I heard was that Fidesz's people were talking to ENF's people, but this seems to suggest a new group.

[TheSaint250]

Apparently Macron, Rivera and Renzi are planning on running under a common platform in 2019.

Do you have a link for that? I remember that was rumored, but I never saw anything saying progress was made.

[TheSaint250]

Apparently Macron, Rivera and Renzi are planning on running under a common platform in 2019.

If they aren't going to join ALDE, they need 4 more countries to join them. Who else would?

With or without the rest of PD?

I guess they could probably grab the Eurofederalist parts of ALDE - D66, Verhofstadt and pals, Radikale Venstre (?), NEOS etc or perhaps extremely liberal members of S&D like Irish Labour could defect. Maybe an independent "En Marche" list could get some healthy votes  in Germany, what with turbulence in the CDU probably precipitating a shift rightwards?

The Wikipedia page mentions Progressive Slovakia and Momentum Movement, both new parties, as being possible partners as well, though last I read the former of the two applied for ALDE membership.

[TheSaint250]

Apparently Macron, Rivera and Renzi are planning on running under a common platform in 2019.

Do you have a link for that? I remember that was rumored, but I never saw anything saying progress was made.

The only link in English I could find was this one.

 http://www.turkeytelegraph.com/politics/rivera-macron-and-renzi-negotiate-a-common-platform-for-the-european-elections-h18754.html

This one is in Spanish but seems much better

https://politica.elpais.com/politica/2018/06/25/actualidad/1529932425_945638.html

I guess they are working on it.

Thank you!

PD leaving S&D would really be something.

[TheSaint250]

ALDE vs MACRON

FI  4 vs 0
SE 4 vs 0
DK 3 vs 1
DE 10 vs 0
NL 5 vs 2
BE 0 vs 4 (If VLD/MR really lefts the group) also it possible that N-VA could join Liberals left Liberals.
LU 0 vs 1
FR 4 vs 24
ES 2 vs 12
PT 0 vs 0
IR 3 vs 0 (stonmen are likely get their seats back)
PL 4 vs 0
EE 4 vs 0
LV  1 vs 0
LT  2 vs 0
CS 5 vs 0
SK 0 vs 1
AT 2 vs 0
HU 0 vs 1
SI 2 vs 0
HR 2 vs 0
BU 4 vs 0
RO 3 vs 3
IT 0 vs 20
MT 0 vs 0
EL 0 vs 1
CY 0 vs 0

64  vs  68

Do you have the link for this?

[TheSaint250]

Salvini openly discussing forming a "nationalist bloc" for the 2019 elections

[TheSaint250]

How is ENF doing so well in Southern Europe? The only gains I can see from them are in Italy and Spain (since Vox is speculated to join it post-election). I would expect EFDD to be doing better, especially with M5S.

Or did M5S almost max out?

[TheSaint250]

Any news about what M5S will be doing in terms of EU groups post-election?

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1024535893451964417

Has Jobbik even moderated that much to be considered? We always hear about the supposed effort but never really hear about the results.

[TheSaint250]

Is the ECR group even likely to stay together? I could see it being rebranded depending on the results.

Also, FvD seems like it would be the kind of party to not associate with any of the mainstream groups. Baudet seems to be taking his own path, and meeting with Jared Taylor probably isn’t going to make any mainstream group actively seek him out.

[TheSaint250]

Well that was fast.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1026114569993904129

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/pollofpolls_EU/status/1025643321996324865

Any have anything more about this?

This was destined to happen.  While this new group was essentially guaranteed to have 25 seats, they lacked the necessary number of countries to be created.

[TheSaint250]

Any reason why ÖVP is underperforming compared to national polling?

Also, i thought PILZ wasn't going to be running.