European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Oryxslayer]

Its interesting that Spain is a little bit of a pro-EU, anti-populist outlier. Probably has something to do with Catalonia and other Separatists effect on the national culture, since none of the other countries polled have a national issue quite like Catalonia.

[Oryxslayer]

Its interesting that Spain is a little bit of a pro-EU, anti-populist outlier. Probably has something to do with Catalonia and other Separatists effect on the national culture, since none of the other countries polled have a national issue quite like Catalonia.

I peronally find suprising the populist question considering first the rise of Podemos and now the rise of Vox. Not sure about the Catalonia relation but I guess it could be a factor. Could also be a factor for some of the inmigration questions, particularly the nationalism one.

The poll didn't publish proper crosstabs but one of the interesting things the article said is that Catalan/Basque nationalists do agree with nationalism as much as PP/Cs/Vox voters.

Well, when I think of Spanish populism I think of two things pre-VOX: Catalonian separatism and, as mentioned by another poster, Franco. It makes sense that the right would push back on the former, and the left on the latter. And now that VOX has risen, we can see they are no where near comparable to other populist parties on the EU issue: AfD, FN, PVV, UKIP - they all view the EU as a for to be scorned. For VOX, that for is internal - regionalism, separatism, and feminism. They are populists in regards to the deal Spanish issues of Franco and Catalonian.

[Oryxslayer]

There's kinda a home-state effect going on since spitzenkandidat Timmermans for the S&D Europe-wide is on the ballot there. At least this was what was expected, according to @EuropeElects.

Why is the only exit poll being released the Dutch poll? Are all other countries voting today still voting?

Only UK and The Netherlands voted en masse today. 

[Oryxslayer]

Romania,

Unofficial opinion poll, at 16.00 CEST (17:00 local time)
PSD 26.7
PNL 25,9
USR 23,1
ProRO 5,8
UDMR 5,4
Alde 4,8
PMP 4,5

From Europe Elects Blog, not their twitter.

[Oryxslayer]

More favorable for DISY and less for AKEL than the previous exit. I'm just watching this election (not following it), so no idea if this means a seat changes hands in such a small constituency.

[Oryxslayer]

Prognosis Germany:

CDU-CSU 27.5
SPD 15.5
Greens 20.5
AfD 10.5
Linke 5.5
FDP 5.5
Partei 2.5
FW 2
Others 10%>

RIP  SPD, especially since their base is the older age group which is more likely to go and vote in every election. Also...was Linke expected to do this bad?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132678316698292224

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132678987501789185
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132679934919544835

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132709279679602689

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132710673765535744

Big if True. Takeaways:

The Tory vote held up much better than projected pre-count. In contrast, the Labour vote did not. The Lib-Dem surge was real.

Farage didn't do as good as polls said. It also looks like he pulled closer to equal from both of the big two, rather then near exclusively from the Conservatives. But maybe this is just the Lib-Dem surge pulling Labour voters.

Seatwise, Remainers only have a 2 seat majority, much less than polls projected.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132715622129917953

GAD3 has more favorable numbers for both the PSOE and Vox.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132709279679602689

BritainElects is a Twitter account. What's the source here?

Apparently it’s based on turnout figures thus far. Nothing based on exit polls or results at all.

i.e just a glorified guess

Ah, worse than that — it's based on both turnout figures and polling, which has been garbage. Junk in, junk out.

Well I'm sorry for posting it then - It popped up in the EuropeElects feed and I thought it was an exit poll.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132785666625015808

M5S flailing. Good chance Lega cuts loose the dead weight post election as theorized, and moves towards forming a pure right government with new elections. Lega+FI+FdI (the right ticket from last time) would have a majority under Italy's system with these numbers.