European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Hottake: with SLD, Razem, Greens, IP and other rumps canceling each other, there won't be any Socialist or Green MEPs from Poland.

I think IP is basically guaranteed >5% if Nowacka actually gets around to turning it into a party any time soon. The media will do what they did with Petru and give her constant 'SAVIOUR OF THE LEFT' headlines for free.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I found an article that seems pretty interesting and goes into depth about the backroom deals being developed. One thing that really caught my attention was this:

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Now this would be something.

I don't see Fidesz switching. While they may occasionally mildly criticise Orbán when it's untenable to do otherwise, the EPP has given him so much political cover in practice. Why abandon that?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Poland: Poland seems to use a constituency based system. So while there might be a nominal threshold, it probably won't apply unless a party manages to get some sort of regional appeal (and thus gets a ton of votes in one constituency but nothing everywhere else, and ends up below 5% nationally). Since Poland doesn't seem to have such parties, it will probably be fine.

No, you need 5% nationally irrespective of how many votes you might get in any particular constituency.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

Surely Razem would go in GUE and Kukiz in with whatever the FN group is calling itself? (There is also the matter of Korwin's new party...)

I am a member of Razem and this is a matter of some internal debate within the party. The issue is that nobody in the party really wants to join S&D, which is seen as having too moderate a profile and also contains SLD, which is a domestic opponent, but the obvious alternative is GUE and a lot of people are iffy about joining an EP group which includes open Communists and tankies as such an association might damage Razem's domestic electoral prospects. At the moment they are very much hoping that Varoufakis' thing actually takes off and spares them having to choose between S&D and GUE, but if it doesn't (and it is unlikely to), the approach seems to be 'we'll cross that bridge if/when we come to it (if/when we actually win seats)'.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

Surely Razem would go in GUE and Kukiz in with whatever the FN group is calling itself? (There is also the matter of Korwin's new party...)

I am a member of Razem and this is a matter of some internal debate within the party. The issue is that nobody in the party really wants to join S&D, which is seen as having too moderate a profile and also contains SLD, which is a domestic opponent, but the obvious alternative is GUE and a lot of people are iffy about joining an EP group which includes open Communists and tankies as such an association might damage Razem's domestic electoral prospects. At the moment they are very much hoping that Varoufakis' thing actually takes off and spares them having to choose between S&D and GUE, but if it doesn't (and it is unlikely to), the approach seems to be 'we'll cross that bridge if/when we come to it (if/when we actually win seats)'.

Can't even imagine Razem in one faction with Linke or KSČM, but probably Crabcake was thinking about similarities with Podemos which might help start some sort of cooperation.

Actually, Razem do have some ties to Linke (at one point last year I was asked if I was interested in going to Berlin to represent Razem at some conference Linke were hosting, but I declined as I don't speak any German), but it is, again, a fairly controversial issue.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Yeah, why not the European Greens for Razem?

It doesn't seem to be under consideration for several reasons:

1) Many of the people who started Razem defected from the Polish Greens and there is still animosity between the parties, and the Polish Greens, despite their irrelevance, cooperate heavily with the German Greens
2) Razem's stance on nuclear power is an awkward compromise between pro- and anti-nuclear wings of the party

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

In real life, what party will Kukiz and Razem join?.

Surely Razem would go in GUE and Kukiz in with whatever the FN group is calling itself? (There is also the matter of Korwin's new party...)

I am a member of Razem and this is a matter of some internal debate within the party. The issue is that nobody in the party really wants to join S&D, which is seen as having too moderate a profile and also contains SLD, which is a domestic opponent, but the obvious alternative is GUE and a lot of people are iffy about joining an EP group which includes open Communists and tankies as such an association might damage Razem's domestic electoral prospects. At the moment they are very much hoping that Varoufakis' thing actually takes off and spares them having to choose between S&D and GUE, but if it doesn't (and it is unlikely to), the approach seems to be 'we'll cross that bridge if/when we come to it (if/when we actually win seats)'.

Is that really a concern? I mean, how many people could even name a Euro parliamentary group, let alone who is in any of them?

I agree, but many in the party fear it would be publicised heavily in an election campaign.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

As far as I observe Polish left infobubble between Razem and Greens there is also issue of GMO, but you as a member probably have better knowledge about "ordinary member" views on that issue.

I had forgotten the GMO issue, you're right that that might be another potential sticking point.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

PiS seems to want move to the EPP according to Polish media EU Observer is reporting

https://euobserver.com/tickers/142003

They’ve wanted to do this for a long time, they can see how being chummy with the EPP has helped Fidesz. But that ship has probably sailed now.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

From Poland 0 MEPs for ALDE and 0 for Macronites.

You think Schetyna will screw .N that badly in the coalition?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

How many seats will Macron and Renzi win? Naively, I would guess 24 for Macron and friends, low teens for a united PD/Renzi, single figures for Renzi on his own?

If we are indeed talking about 130 seats, it's foolish for the two lists to run separately. Macron has no European weight - just the Franco-German alliance, plus a Spanish opposition party. ALDE already have weak cohesion, contested leadership and no national influence. Neither would lose anything by running together.

Implying this has any purpose other than feeding Macron’s ego...

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

From Poland 0 MEPs for ALDE and 0 for Macronites.

You think Schetyna will screw .N that badly in the coalition?

Well, I am taking into consideration PiS attempts to change voting system for EP elections. PO probably would not like to in that new system cooperate with smaller parties.

That may be, but a rump .N could still take 2-3% from them which could cost them dearly under the new system. Giving Lubnauer a seat or two like SLD do for Unia Pracy is the only way to avoid that. We’ll see.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1024535893451964417

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1024535893451964417

Has Jobbik even moderated that much to be considered? We always hear about the supposed effort but never really hear about the results.

To a degree, I guess. Vona and now Sneider have done their best to replace the neo-Nazism with non-ideological platitudes of the 'WHY CAN'T WE ALL JUST GET ALONG ' variety, and some of the radical wing recently defected to start its own party. It feels unconvincing at times, but if it's an act they're very dedicated to it.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/alemannoEU/status/1024535893451964417

Okay, and I have a bridge to sell to you guys. Big spoiler: Jobbik in EPP isn't going to happen.

Of course it won't, for many reasons. The interesting thing is that Jobbik are even talking about it.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Well that was fast.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1026114569993904129

I guess Fidesz inevitably vetoed

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

PiS MEP Ryszard Czarnecki has given an interview in which he heavily hinted PiS may seek EPP membership after the elections.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Does that mean that both major Polish parties (PiS and PO) will be in the same Euro group? Or will PO have to move to ALDE?

That remains to be seen, PO's line on the matter has consistently been that they would veto any PiS application. When asked about this possibility, Czarnecki said that he believed the EPP could be persuaded to ignore PO's objections if it allowed them to noticeably swell their ranks in the European Parliament (and PiS will almost certainly have 20-25 MEPs after this election), specifically citing the supposed precedent (I don't know anything about the politicking involved so I can't say if he was telling the full truth or not) of Forza Italia being admitted in 1994 over the objections of the ex-Christian Democracy.

As a side note, I believe that PiS were in fact EPP observers in 2003-4, but quickly switched to UEN and then ECR as part of a broader attempt to win over nationalist voters.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

M****n S****yr

lol, seriously?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Ugh, there is again that annoying gossip that Robert Biedroń will start his own political initiative and that initiative will be aimed for first European Parliament elections and then the Sejm elections. His initiative will probably called "Kocham Polskę" (eng: I love Poland) and it will be probably next initiative to UNITE THE LEFT by creating next bleak and boring organisation of few ambitious, younger politicians who are still looking for their place between SLD and Razem. I guess there are chances that there will be no S&D MEPs from Poland, even when there will be no changes in the electoral system (which PiS is not trying to pass).

This is no longer gossip - Biedroń has announced that he is indeed planning on launching his own centre-left 'social movement', and Razem immediately responded that they are willing to enter negotiations for a coalition with him for the EP elections. Given that Barbara Nowacka's Polish Initiative is now splintering due to the actually principled left-wing members not willing to follow Nowacka's lead and join the PO-.N 'Civic Coalition', the long-prophesied left-wing coalition may finally be within reach.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

What with the talk about Macron's attempt to create his own European Parliament grouping, everyone seems to have missed that Mélenchon seems to be trying to do the same thing. It seems to be the result of him getting pissed off with GUE/NGL refusing to expel SYRIZA for being sellouts and trying to launch his own Eurosceptic left-wing movement.

Utter vanity though this may be, it's probably still more interesting than what Varoufakis and Hamon are doing, given that it's made up of parties that are actually somewhat successful in their home countries and likely to win seats in the European Parliament. They would, however, need a seventh country for an EP group, and I'm not sure who that could be? Sahra Wagenknecht's movement is the natural missing link, but we're still not even sure if that will even contest elections. The Belgian PTB/PVDA, perhaps (though they might be a little too orthodox), or the Slovenian Left. One to watch, anyway.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

EDIT ; and on the subject of the N-VA, I find it hard to see them joining ALDE led by Verhofstadt.

Didn't they very briefly negotiate with Verhofstadt back in 2014? I swear I can remember Béatrice Delvaux being absolutely furious at the time that he was even considering it.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Polish Ruch Narodowy and Wolnosc are teaming up for the Euros. As far as I understand, RN is both ultra-Catholic and far-right nationalist whereas Wolnosc is ultra-libertarian. What are their chances of getting in? Would they be ENF material or are they too extreme even for them?

Pretty bad, IMO. Both organisations are arguably past their peak - Wolnosc is a dumpster fire internally and are burning through money at a ridiculous rate, and while Ruch Narodowy might still be a presence I'm not sure they ever recovered from the debacle that was their alliance with Kukiz.

Ruch Narodowy have strong ties to Jobbik and last time Korwin (under the KNP label) tried to play the Europarty game even Le Pen and Wilders found him too much of a loose cannon, so I doubt that they'd be acceptable now.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

1. Konfederacja (Korwin [self explanatory], Ruch Narodowy [nationalists], Skuteczni [Kukiz rapper-based spin-off], Pobudka [Grzegorz Braun organisation, Catholic monarchists], Federacja dla Rzeczypospolitej [beer magnate, ex-Kukiz Marek Jakubiak party, conlib] and some more minor political movements).

Would the far-right Confederacy list split up after the election or remain one parliamentary group? Do you think they'd be likely to join the EAPN alliance?

They probably intend to keep going and run together in the parliamentary elections as well, but the project is full of dramatic personalities who love to fall out so I wouldn't be surprised if it fell apart before then. As for your second question, it's probably more a question of whether EAPN will have them seeing as Korwin ended up being too controversial for ENF in 2014 and the Confederation overall is honestly more extreme.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Razem just got the biggest amount of media coverage since last parliamentary elections because Pamela Anderson endorsed them on Twitter.

It's 4,9% time.