European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

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If LREM win 32 out of 78 French seats like they claim, I will eat a hat! They will win low twenties, won't they?

Mid-to-low 20s seems like a correct guesstimate at this very early stage (no-one is paying attention except for us), although if a lot of parties hover just below the 5% threshold*, then perhaps they (and other parties) could get a higher seat count by virtue of there being so many wasted votes below the threshold. If FBM's approval continues its downwards slope, then they will probably dip into the low 20s.

* the last Ipsos poll, from early July, fwiw had EELV, Hamon's gang and the PS all at 4% each (and Agir-UDI at 3%).

If LREM win 32 out of 78 French seats like they claim, I will eat a hat! They will win low twenties, won't they?

I guess there might be other "new centrist" parties? No idea who though

In France? The MoDem isn't a real party and only exists as an irrelevant LREM satellite, for the time being; and all the polling so far is not very kind for UDI/Agir (unsurprisingly, as they are both cadre parties that nobody actually votes for in real life), which may prompt them to ally with LREM to save their asses (as always).

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Is does threshold in France for EU election?
I know that that they changed the system but cannot find any info about it.

5%, now in a nationwide constituency (as it was until 2004). Closed-list PR.

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Also very striking that MUH NEW WORLD!!!!!1!11!! polls best with older voters (especially given how much FBM's policies had supposedly pissed off retirees).

There's a much stronger age/generational gap in the macronista vote this year than in 2017, and it is in large part due to macronismo further siphoning off a good portion of the old mainstream right's electorate (around a quarter of Fillon 2017 voters who turned out in 2019, according to all exit polls). This means that LREM's support is much more reflective of the right's traditional patterns of support in years past (across occupational/professional, income/class and even religious categories) than it was in 2017. Not surprising if you've been paying attention, although it may come as a surprise to those who continue to imagine that FBM is a dreamy liberal centrist progressive.

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Leading party/list by constituency in France:



RN:



LREM et al.:



More to follow. Go to AAD if you want to read my impressions about these maps.