European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

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Elabe poll - France

Lrem-Modem: 24
FN : 19,5
LR: 15
FI: 10
EELV: 8
PS: 6
DLF: 5,5
UDI: 2
Generations: 1,5

For now, it's very difficult to estimate the turnout so there are big differences between the pollsters.

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IFOP poll - France

30-31/08 (compared to 25-27/06)

En marche-Modem: 20 (-3)
FN : 17 (-2)
LR: 15 (=)
FI: 14 (+3)
Greens: 7,5 (+1,5)
DLF: 6,5 (+0,5)
PS: 6 (=)
Generation: 3 (=)
...

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Macron in free fall.

Odoxa poll 09/05-06 (internet)

good president: 29 (-12)
bad president : 71 (+12)

Among FI voters: 11 (-9)
PS voters: 25 (-2)
LaREM: 88 (-7)
LR: 25 (-23)
RN: 9 (-4)


Philippe

good PM: 35 (-5)
bad PM: 65 (+5)


"Adhesion" to

Hulot: 49 % (+13)
Flessel 30 % (=)
Sarkozy 29 (+2)
Juppé 28 (-3)
Melanchon 28 (+3)
Marion Maréchal: 25 (-1)
Marine Le Pen: 24 (=)
Hollande 22 (+1)
...
Wauquiez 16 (+1)
...

EU elections could be a protest vote against macron.

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The FPÖ calls Steve Bannon too extreme & doesn't want to co-operate with him for the EU elections:

"Austria’s far-right unwilling to collaborate with Steve Bannon"

https://www.timesofisrael.com/austrias-far-right-unwilling-to-collaborate-with-bannon

lol

Anyway, the odoxa poll for EU election:

Larem-Modem: 21,5
RN: 21

LR: 14
FI: 12

DLF: 6
Green: 5
PS: 4,5 (lol)
Hamon: 4
UDI (center): 3
Philippot: 1,5  (lol)

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France

Ifop poll (10/30-31, compared to last poll done end august)

RN: 20 (+3)
La rem + modem: 20 (=)
Les républicains : 14 (-1)
LFI : 11 (-3)

EELV: 7 (-0,5)
DLF: 6,5 (=)
PS: 6 (=)

Communist: 3 (+1)
Generations (Hamon): 3 (=)
UDI: 3 (+0,5)

UPR (asselineau): 1,5 % (+1)
NPA : 1 (-1)
Patriotes (Philippot): 1% (=)

If Segolene Royal leads the PS list, she would obtain 7,5 %.

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Ifop poll France (11/09-12, before "gillets jaunes" demonstrations")

RN 22 +2
Lrem 19 (-1)

LR 13 (-1)
FI 10 (-1)

EELV 7 (=)
PS 6 (=)
DLF 6 (-0,5)

UDI 4 (+1)
generations (hamon) 3 (=)
PC (communist) 2 (-1)

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IFOP poll

12/07-10

RN 24
LREM 18

LR 11 (!)
FI 9 (!!)
EELV 8,5
DLF (dupont aignan): 8 (!!!). NDA is the first candate to have strongly supported yellow jerseys.

PS 4,5
Generations (hamon): 3,5
UDI 3

les patriotes 1

So this poll contradicts the ispos poll. To noted that the ifop poll was done not for a party. Considering the current situation and even if the ipsos pollster is traditionally very good, I'm going with the ifop poll.

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IFOP poll

12/07-10

RN 24
LREM 18

LR 11 (!)
FI 9 (!!)
EELV 8,5
DLF (dupont aignan): 8 (!!!). NDA is the first candate to have strongly supported yellow jerseys.

PS 4,5
Generations (hamon): 3,5
UDI 3

les patriotes 1

So this poll contradicts the ispos poll. To noted that the ifop poll was done not for a party. Considering the current situation and even if the ipsos pollster is traditionally very good, I'm going with the ifop poll.

Confirmed by the last odoxa poll

RN 24
Lrem 19

FI 11,5
LR 8 (!!)
DLF 7
PS 7
EELV 6,5

Generation 3
Lasalle 3
udi 2,5
NPA 2,5
communist 2

So that seems clear that RN will be first and Lrem probably second. The rest is fluid. It would be funny if Dupont Aignan beats the LR list.

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The election is in 5 months, the campaign hasn't started, we don't know who will lead the LREM list, ... I don't know how you can be sure that RN will be first with a 5 points lead in the middle of a political crisis for Macron.

A lot can happen in 5 months, especially we will have Brexit and its immediate consequences just 2 months ahead of the vote.

Macron is going to be unpopular for a vey long time IMO. The environment is revolutionary so it's good for RN, which has recovered from his defeat at the presidential runoff. So IMO, RN should be first and I don't see who can beat them.

But the real true important elections will be in 2020 (locals) and especially in 2021 (regionals): and RN can  take Haut de France ? PACA ? centre ?

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And the FN were at 25% in 2014. So flatlining isn't really all that great given how unpopular Macron is, how the traditional parties habe imploded and how RWPPs have progressed elsewhere

But it's the illustration that Marine Le Pen has recovered from her poor debate...

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France - opinion way

RN 22
LREM 20
LR 12
FI 8
Green 8
DLF 7
PS 6

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France -Elabe poll

LRem 22 -1,5
RN 22 +1,5
LR 13 +0,5
Green 10 +1
FI 8 -1,5
DLF 5,5 +0,5
PS 5 -1
Generations 3 +1
communist 2,5 +0,5
UDI 2,5 -1

Turnout= 41 % (2014: 42 %)

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Italy
Poll by Istituto Piepoli. Fieldwork: 25/2/2019

Lega 31.5%
5 Starts 25%
PD 18.5%
Forza Italia 11%
FdI 4.5%
+Europa 3.5%

Ipsos

Lega: 32,9
M5: 23,1
PD: 18,5
FI: 10,4
FDL : 4,7
+EU: 3,3
ex-LEU: 2,4
PAP: 1,7

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CD&V, cdH, CSV, CDA, CDS-PP, KOK and M now officially support a vote on the expulsion of Fidesz from EPP, which means it's happening: the threshold of seven parties from five countries has been reached.

Hope the other members are sensible and shut down this nonsense.

Also, funny that the parties who started the initiative don't even get 1/3 of the support Fidesz gets in Hungary, so I guess they're just a bit butthurt over it.

Rumors is that cdh (just one guy, in the best case) is going to quit to ALDE. So a good pretext...

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Apparently, the EPP group (the three wise men) which will evaluate Fidesz will be former President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, former President of the European Parliament, Hans-Gert Pöttering, and former Austrian Chancellor, Wolfgang Schüssel

lol schussel. The last party to be suspended was... OVP (when Schussel was chancellor)

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France

Opinionway

RN : 24% LREM : 21% LR : 14% FI : 8% (↘ 1) EELV : 8% (↗1) PS : 5% (↘ 1) G•s : 4% DLF : 4% PCF : 3% UDI : 3% UPR : 1% LO : 1% LP : 1%

Ifop (rolling)

RN: 22,5
Lrem 21,5
LR 15
Greens 9
FI 8,5
PS 5
DLF 4,5
Generations 3
communists: 3
Yellow list 2
...

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Poll closing times for the 21 countries that are voting today (local time):

2pm: Luxemburg

3pm: Belgium

5pm: Austria, Cyprus

6pm: Germany, Greece

7pm: Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Slovenia

8pm: Denmark, France, Portugal, Romania, Spain

9pm: Poland, Sweden

11pm: Italy (needs to be nuked for such a time)

I don't know about you, but a 2 pm or 3 pm poll closing seems comically early to me.

Well, it's doable if voters are informed and motivated to vote.

For example, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Belgium and most smaller cities in Austria always close between noon (!) and 3 pm already and all manage turnouts of 80-90%.

In Lux and Belgium, the vote is an obligation.

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Turnout in France at noon: 19.26%
In 2014 it was 15.70%

interesting. Pollsters estimated the 2019 turnout just a little better than in 2014.

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France

Turnout

 Pas-de-Calais : 24,9% (+10,3)
Aisne : 20,9% (+7,7)

It's good for RN but:

Alpes maritimes : 13 (-1,5)

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France

Turnout

 Pas-de-Calais : 24,9% (+10,3)
Aisne : 20,9% (+7,7)

It's good for RN but:

Alpes maritimes : 13 (-1,5)

And Paris: 11 (=)

So for now, it seems good for RN.

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Only three people below 65 years of age in my polling station, which were me, my mother and another university student. Seriously hoping it is because the rest of the voting population was still sleeping and that youth abstention isn't in the house of the 80s again. Oporto by the way.

in KS ?

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France (exit polls)

RN: 23-26
Lrem: 19-22
LR 11-13
Greens 7-10
LFI: 7-8
PS: 5

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So apparently the French Interior Ministry releases the results, I thought it was forbidden until 11pm.
https://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/europeennes-2019/FE.html

41% counted
RN - 27.05%
LREM - 20.40%
EELV - 11.88%
LR - 8.58%
LFI - 6.17%
PS - 5.65%

Ipsos predicts that RN will finish at 23 %, Lrem 22 % and Greens at 13 %.

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So apparently the French Interior Ministry releases the results, I thought it was forbidden until 11pm.
https://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/europeennes-2019/FE.html

41% counted
RN - 27.05%
LREM - 20.40%
EELV - 11.88%
LR - 8.58%
LFI - 6.17%
PS - 5.65%

Ipsos predicts that RN will finish at 23 %, Lrem 22 % and Greens at 13 %.

Seems closer than expected. Any chance LREM pass RN?

weak because the projection is very solid, based on 1/3 votes.

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Austria results (precincts 100% counted, excl. postal ballots which are counted tomorrow):

https://wahl19.bmi.gv.at

Turnout will be 60% with postal ballots (+15%), because around 600.000 ballots will be added tomorrow.

so no surprise