Current 2020 Prediction?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 09, 2024, 03:56:21 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Current 2020 Prediction?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Current 2020 Prediction?  (Read 1136 times)
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,702
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 25, 2018, 07:00:30 PM »
I am thinking something like this:



307/231

Incumbent party loses narrowly due to president's personal scandals and less favorable vote distribution than previous election despite a good to very good economy.  Would be very similar to 2000.  The PV is somewhere between Dem +2.0-3.5.

I went back and forth on PA and FL many times, but Dems would only need one to win with this map. 
Logged
Progressive
jro660
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,581


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2018, 07:23:43 PM »
I have 3 predictions in the realm of what I think is possible

Optimistic prediction


Dem    427
Trump  111

Dem      55%
Trump    43%     

Middle ground likelihood prediction


Dem    308
Trump  230

Dem      52%
Trump    46%   

My fear


Dem    269
Trump  269

Dem      50%
Trump    48%   
Logged
Mail-order President
Dark Horse
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 377


Political Matrix
E: 0.50, S: -3.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2018, 09:35:34 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2018, 09:42:36 PM by Dark Horse »

President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 48.4% - 302 EV
Generic Dem/Generic Dem 49.3% - 236 EV

Trump loses a little bit of his support among WWC, but gain with College Educated Whites and Hispanics as they see that he was not as bad they thought he'd be.  He still loses the popular vote, but by a smaller margin.

Bonus 2024 Map


Mike Pence loses against Kamala Harris
*The EV in NE is supposed to be NE-2
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,016
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2018, 09:45:54 PM »


Senator Kamala Harris
President Donald J. Trump
Logged
Sherrod Brown Shill
NerdFighter40351
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 716
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2018, 10:21:41 PM »
« Edited: February 25, 2018, 10:26:52 PM by Sherrod Brown Shill »

Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-OH) 50.4% - 352 EV
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) 43.7% - 186 EV
Logged
LabourJersey
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,198
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2018, 10:45:03 PM »
Since I believe there's going to be a recession in late '18/early '19 that Trump will handle poorly...


Democratic Nominee/Dem Veep: 358 EV, 53.6% PV
Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Mike Pence (R-ID): 180 EV, 43.9%
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,276
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 26, 2018, 03:56:52 AM »
Random guess:



The Democrat wins 309-229 and the PV by 4.

Closest states: FL, PA, WI, NC, GA
Logged
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,945


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 26, 2018, 04:17:36 AM »


Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Mike Pence (R-ID): 306 EV, 48.4%
Democratic Nominee/Dem Veep: 232 EV, 50.1% PV
Logged
here2view
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,688
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.13, S: -1.74

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 26, 2018, 08:31:41 AM »


Democratic President/Democratic VP: 289 (49.6%)
Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 249 (46.1%)

Florida will be very close but Trump will scrape by since incumbent Presidents seem to always win there. Wisconsin will be the closest Rust Belt state, decided by about 7,500 votes.
Logged
DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 26, 2018, 08:47:07 AM »


Early prediction map. 244 Dem, 185 Rep including lean states (lighter shade). 109 undecided/toss up.
Logged
DabbingSanta
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,679
United States
P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 26, 2018, 08:52:27 AM »


Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)/Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA): 337 EV ( 49.9% )
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 201 EV ( 45.2% )
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,602
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 26, 2018, 11:26:45 AM »
« Edited: March 02, 2018, 06:29:17 PM by Frodo »
Quote from: Progressive on February 25, 2018, 07:23:43 PM
My fear


Dem    269
Trump  269

Dem      50%
Trump    48%  

I think it more likely to be this, though I would tweak your electoral map a bit to give Pence (Trump will be gone before the 2020 election season begins) that at-large Maine district:



Electoral College

Biden   268
Pence  270

Popular Vote

Biden      50%
Pence    48%  

Logged
Joey1996
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,986


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 26, 2018, 11:45:00 AM »
Michigan is the most likely of the Trump rust belt states to flip back
Logged
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,385
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2018, 12:47:39 PM »
Biden wins with Obama's 2012 map + Arizona and North Carolina.
Logged
King Lear
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 981
Russian Federation


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2018, 03:50:45 PM »



President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 290 EV ( 48.1% )
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ): 248 EV ( 50.7% )
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,010
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 26, 2018, 03:51:11 PM »


335 - 203

Not sure about North Carolina and Georgia. You may switch them.
Logged
Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,480


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 26, 2018, 04:58:41 PM »
Quote from: King Lear on February 26, 2018, 03:50:45 PM



President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 290 EV ( 48.1% )
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ): 248 EV ( 50.7% )

The Hack is Back.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,702
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 26, 2018, 06:44:14 PM »
« Edited: February 26, 2018, 07:06:55 PM by Skill and Chance »
Quote from: Jalawest2 on February 26, 2018, 04:58:41 PM
Quote from: King Lear on February 26, 2018, 03:50:45 PM



President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 290 EV ( 48.1% )
Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ): 248 EV ( 50.7% )

The Hack is Back.

Warren likely wouldn't have this problem, but Booker or especially Harris could.  It's a really bad time to nominate someone from CA. 

I do not, however, think this would happen to Biden.  He wouldn't do as well in CA or TX and it's hard to see him winning the PV without taking PA and 1 of MI, WI, or FL.
Logged
Inmate Trump
GWBFan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,079


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -7.30

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 26, 2018, 07:29:44 PM »


Dem: 340
Trump: 198
Logged
Joey1996
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,986


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: February 27, 2018, 12:32:18 AM »
« Edited: February 27, 2018, 12:35:44 AM by Joey1996 »


Bernie Sanders/Catherine Cortez Masto 305
Donald Trump/ Mike Pence 227
Mitt Romney/Jon Huntsman Jr. 6
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,761
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: February 27, 2018, 10:51:42 AM »


✓ Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Former Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO): 320 EVs.; 50.8%
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 218 EVs.; 46.6%
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,839
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: February 27, 2018, 11:48:48 AM »
« Edited: February 27, 2018, 02:51:47 PM by pbrower2a »

I am thinking something like this:



374/164

Donald Trump has disappointed so many people and found few new voters for him that he loses at least as badly as the elder Bush in 1992. He loses every state that he won by less than 10% in 2016... and at that, Texas is shaky.
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,269
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: February 27, 2018, 12:10:56 PM »
Without a right-wing third party:



Ohio and Iowa are tossups.

With a right-wing third party:
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.085 seconds with 13 queries.