Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee is a battleground state for the Senate in 2018.

[OneJ]

Democracy Corps (D), June 1-5, 1400 RV with a subsample of 518 in 12 "battleground states": AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NV, NM, OH, PA, TN, WI

National:

Approve 45 (strongly 21)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 42)

Battleground states:

Approve 46 (strongly 20)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 40)

Generic Congressional ballot: National D 51, R 42 (D+9), Battleground states D 49, R 43 (D+6)

D+6 isn't too shabby for that set of states, particularly with TN in the mix.

GA too. NM is an odd inclusion though

New Mexico was likely placed there for the relatively competitive governor’s race. But even then, I do agree that it’s somewhat far-fetched to call it a battleground.

[pbrower2a]

Democracy Corps (D), June 1-5, 1400 RV with a subsample of 518 in 12 "battleground states": AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NV, NM, OH, PA, TN, WI

National:

Approve 45 (strongly 21)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 42)

Battleground states:

Approve 46 (strongly 20)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 40)

Generic Congressional ballot: National D 51, R 42 (D+9), Battleground states D 49, R 43 (D+6)

Iowa and Texas could be considered 'battleground states. But so are Maine and New Hampshire.

...Still, this is all very bad news for Republicans. This group is fairly close to the national average, but if anything a bit more R than the US as a whole. The strong disapproval to strong approval ratio is 2 to 1, which means that any Republican will need to distance himself from Donald Trump to get elected or re-elected in most places.

Pack-and-sack protects majority election of a minority party through gerrymandering until the party with the advantage fails. We already see signs of failure.   

[Badger]

Democracy Corps (D), June 1-5, 1400 RV with a subsample of 518 in 12 "battleground states": AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NV, NM, OH, PA, TN, WI

National:

Approve 45 (strongly 21)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 42)

Battleground states:

Approve 46 (strongly 20)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 40)

Generic Congressional ballot: National D 51, R 42 (D+9), Battleground states D 49, R 43 (D+6)

D+6 isn't too shabby for that set of states, particularly with TN in the mix.

GA too. NM is an odd inclusion though

New Mexico was likely placed there for the relatively competitive governor’s race. But even then, I do agree that it’s somewhat far-fetched to call it a battleground.

Just a reminder that this is a Democratic internal

[Person Man]

Democracy Corps (D), June 1-5, 1400 RV with a subsample of 518 in 12 "battleground states": AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NV, NM, OH, PA, TN, WI

National:

Approve 45 (strongly 21)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 42)

Battleground states:

Approve 46 (strongly 20)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 40)

Generic Congressional ballot: National D 51, R 42 (D+9), Battleground states D 49, R 43 (D+6)

D+6 isn't too shabby for that set of states, particularly with TN in the mix.

GA too. NM is an odd inclusion though

New Mexico was likely placed there for the relatively competitive governor’s race. But even then, I do agree that it’s somewhat far-fetched to call it a battleground.

Just a reminder that this is a Democratic internal

Have they been accurate in the past? I really like how they detail things and they don't put any of the leading stuff until after all the major questions are asked.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democracy Corps (D), June 1-5, 1400 RV with a subsample of 518 in 12 "battleground states": AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NV, NM, OH, PA, TN, WI

National:

Approve 45 (strongly 21)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 42)

Battleground states:

Approve 46 (strongly 20)
Disapprove 54 (strongly 40)

Generic Congressional ballot: National D 51, R 42 (D+9), Battleground states D 49, R 43 (D+6)

D+6 isn't too shabby for that set of states, particularly with TN in the mix.

GA too. NM is an odd inclusion though

New Mexico was likely placed there for the relatively competitive governor’s race. But even then, I do agree that it’s somewhat far-fetched to call it a battleground.

Just a reminder that this is a Democratic internal

Have they been accurate in the past? I really like how they detail things and they don't put any of the leading stuff until after all the major questions are asked.

ISTR they were pretty good in 2012, but in 2016 not so much.  They had a national poll a couple weeks before the election with Clinton up 50-38.

[henster]

I hate when pollsters group all of these states together either do a national poll or do individual ones. These states are so different for all we know NM and TN could be throwing off the sample because of how far they lean.

[KingSweden]

I hate when pollsters group all of these states together either do a national poll or do individual ones. These states are so different for all we know NM and TN could be throwing off the sample because of how far they lean.

My concern too.

[Adam Griffin]

So I figured I'd take a stab at guessing what Trump's approval was in each of those battleground states in the poll and then see what all the states combined would average by weighting them along their share of the 2016 electorate. Without revising anything after projecting each state, my combined "gut number" came out right on (46% approval in the battlegrounds). Mainly just for fun, but maybe it can at least give us some parameters. "TMP" is the Trump approval figure:

Code:

ST	16VOTE	PCTVOTE	TMP
AZ	2.6m		5.7%	50	2.85
CO	2.8m		6.1%	44	2.68
FL	9.5m		20.7%	46	9.52
GA	4.1m		9.0%	48	4.32
MI	4.8m		10.5%	43	4.51
MN	2.9m		6.3%	42	2.65
NV	1.1m		2.4%	44	1.06
NM	0.8m		1.7%	42	0.71
OH	5.5m		12.0%	50	6
PA	6.2m		13.5%	42	5.67
TN	2.5m		5.5%	56	3.08
WI	3.0m		6.6%	43	2.84

T 	45.8m	100%	45.9

[pbrower2a]

So I figured I'd take a stab at guessing what Trump's approval was in each of those battleground states in the poll and then see what all the states combined would average by weighting them along their share of the 2016 electorate. Without revising anything after projecting each state, my combined "gut number" came out right on (46% approval in the battlegrounds). Mainly just for fun, but maybe it can at least give us some parameters. "TMP" is the Trump approval figure:

Code:

ST	16VOTE	PCTVOTE	TMP
AZ	2.6m		5.7%	50	2.85
CO	2.8m		6.1%	44	2.68
FL	9.5m		20.7%	46	9.52
GA	4.1m		9.0%	48	4.32
MI	4.8m		10.5%	43	4.51
MN	2.9m		6.3%	42	2.65
NV	1.1m		2.4%	44	1.06
NM	0.8m		1.7%	42	0.71
OH	5.5m		12.0%	50	6
PA	6.2m		13.5%	42	5.67
TN	2.5m		5.5%	56	3.08
WI	3.0m		6.6%	43	2.84

T 	45.8m	100%	45.9

In larger print:

Code:

ST   16VOTE   PCTVOTE   TMP
AZ   2.6m      5.7%   50   2.85
CO   2.8m      6.1%   44   2.68
FL   9.5m      20.7%   46   9.52
GA   4.1m      9.0%   48   4.32
MI   4.8m      10.5%   43   4.51
MN   2.9m      6.3%   42   2.65
NV   1.1m      2.4%   44   1.06
NM   0.8m      1.7%   42   0.71
OH   5.5m      12.0%   50   6
PA   6.2m      13.5%   42   5.67
TN   2.5m      5.5%   56   3.08
WI   3.0m      6.6%   43   2.84

T    45.8m   100%   45.9

Good statistical work as a result even if the style is unorthodox.  As a predictor of the Trump vote I would still go with 100-DIS as a ceiling, a conservative estimation of the maximum for voting against Donald Trump either for supporting the Democratic nominee or (for those unwilling to go so far as to vote for a Democratic nominee) voting, most likely, for a conservative Third Party or independent candidate. I can think of only one state in which a third-party alternative could end up in first place -- Utah. Such might require Utah Democrats to avoid wasting their vote for a Democratic nominee and vote for a non-Trump conservative.

I would expect Trump approval to be a bit lower, based on existing polls, in Arizona and Ohio.  This said, should either state decide the election, then President Trump is defeated anyway.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

(Raise the hot-take shields.)

Gallup weekly:

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (-4)

[BudgieForce]

Not a god damn clue.

[Hindsight was 2020]

What a weird jump for Gallup

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

(Raise the hot-take shields.)

Gallup weekly:

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (-4)

Dems lose 140 seats in House, every seat in the Senate

[Person Man]

Especially with all the bad news with the kids. Maybe people are just entertained by it?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Especially with all the bad news with the kids. Maybe people are just entertained by it?

Gallup polls from Monday through Sunday, so this was only in the headlines for the last part of it.  The dominant story in the sample period was probably Korea.

[Gass3268]

What I'm very curious about is why is Trump's numbers and Congressional Democrats numbers improving at the same time?

[Person Man]

Especially with all the bad news with the kids. Maybe people are just entertained by it?

Gallup polls from Monday through Sunday, so this was only in the headlines for the last part of it.  The dominant story in the sample period was probably Korea.

Maybe. I see YouGov jumped to 44% and now is back to 40%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Especially with all the bad news with the kids. Maybe people are just entertained by it?

Gallup polls from Monday through Sunday, so this was only in the headlines for the last part of it.  The dominant story in the sample period was probably Korea.

Maybe. I see YouGov jumped to 44% and now is back to 40%.

I wouldn't read a lot into the movement of that YouGov daily snapshot.  It's really noisy.

[JGibson]

(Raise the hot-take shields.)

Gallup weekly:

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (-4)

I'd wager the North Korea bump is most likely reason for it, but he’ll likely blow his polling gains that he got with North Korea with the family separation issue in the next Gallup update.

[Person Man]

(Raise the hot-take shields.)

Gallup weekly:

Approve 45 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (-4)

I'd wager the North Korea bump is most likely reason for it, but he’ll likely blow his polling gains that he got with North Korea with the family separation issue in the next Gallup update.

This

[KingSweden]

Especially with all the bad news with the kids. Maybe people are just entertained by it?

Gallup polls from Monday through Sunday, so this was only in the headlines for the last part of it.  The dominant story in the sample period was probably Korea.

Seems reasonable.

[Matty]

Maybe you guys need to step back a bit and realize

a) the economy plays a large role in the approval/disapproval of the president. The economy has been performing well lately, and Americans (who early on in trump's term were still giving credit to Obama) are increasingly giving him the credit now. He now has a tax law he can brag about, whether or not it is true.

b) Americans saying the nation is moving in right direction is at highest % since 2005, according to gallup.

c) The north korea summit was viewed as a success by even 49% of dems, according to monmouth, and 40% of dems according to Morning consult.

The country really isn't on fire at all when you step out of your bubble. Does trump deserve criticism for some/lots of stuff. Yes, he does.

But it is incredible to me that you guys expect his approvals to be in 20s or low 30s at this point.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Maybe you guys need to step back a bit and realize

a) the economy plays a large role in the approval/disapproval of the president. The economy has been performing well lately, and Americans (who early on in trump's term were still giving credit to Obama) are increasingly giving him the credit now. He now has a tax law he can brag about, whether or not it is true.

b) Americans saying the nation is moving in right direction is at highest % since 2005, according to gallup.

c) The north korea summit was viewed as a success by even 49% of dems, according to monmouth, and 40% of dems according to Morning consult.

The country really isn't on fire at all when you step out of your bubble. Does trump deserve criticism for some/lots of stuff. Yes, he does.

But it is incredible to me that you guys expect his approvals to be in 20s or low 30s at this point.

Sorry we aren’t selfish sociopaths who think just because the economy is good he should get high marks when he goes on tv and says he wants us to obey him like a dictator or purge the FBI to save himself from Mueller

[BudgieForce]

Maybe you guys need to step back a bit and realize

a) the economy plays a large role in the approval/disapproval of the president. The economy has been performing well lately, and Americans (who early on in trump's term were still giving credit to Obama) are increasingly giving him the credit now. He now has a tax law he can brag about, whether or not it is true.

b) Americans saying the nation is moving in right direction is at highest % since 2005, according to gallup.

c) The north korea summit was viewed as a success by even 49% of dems, according to monmouth, and 40% of dems according to Morning consult.

The country really isn't on fire at all when you step out of your bubble. Does trump deserve criticism for some/lots of stuff. Yes, he does.

But it is incredible to me that you guys expect his approvals to be in 20s or low 30s at this point.

Spare us Marty.