If there was a December Runoff between Clinton and Trump?

[Skill and Chance]

On the one hand, I think a situation like the French runoff in 2017 where Dems and Never Trump R's who stayed home/voted 3rd party because they didn't like Clinton and didn't think Trump stood a chance would panic after seeing how close the November result and give Clinton a 10%ish win in the runoff.  This would be similar to the turnout dynamic we have seen in the 2017-18 special elections.

On the other hand, Trump's voters were more motivated in the first round than Clinton's, a large majority of the 3rd party vote was for right-of-center candidates and it has also been historically harder to motivate Dem-leaning voters to turn out again in states that have runoff law, so I could also see Trump winning the EC by an even bigger margin and narrowly carrying the runoff PV.

What do you think?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

i'd say the third party votes would be split pretty evenly, and progressives who stayed home may go out to vote for clinton.

Arizona is close.

[Mr. Smith]

Literally depends on what the media's story is in the final week.

[Del Tachi]

The fact that Clinton didn't win the first round outright would motivate progressives who stayed home/voted third party to coalesce around her in the runoff to prevent President Trump. 

[Illini Moderate]

I think Clinton losing the first round to Trump would motivate a much larger Democratic turnout. Also it seems that some people voted for Trump because they didn't like Clinton and thought that she would surely win. Those people might rethink who they vote for as well. I think a December runoff would benefit Clinton immensely

[Progressive Pessimist]

Literally depends on what the media's story is in the final week.

Very true, but I also think the horrific possibility of a Trump victory would finally settle in the minds of those who voted for Stein or Johnson, were complacent in thinking that Clinton would win, or just straight up didn't vote.

Something like this may flip Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and maybe even Nebraska's second congressional district, like Weatherboy's map shows. This would also grant Clinton a popular vote win just a bit shy of Obama's 2012 margin of victory. Obviously both campaigns and parties would also organize their asses off to deliver a win, so perhaps Trump could succeed more in having the more enthusastic voters in the end who would probably be very reliable in turning out again, but I still think it would be tough for him to win the popular vote under any circumstance even if he still won the electoral college in the end.

[here2view]

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine: 278
Donald Trump/Mike Pence: 260

This is for just a Trump and Clinton runoff, so each candidate receives at least 50% in every state they win. Trump probably wins Florida 50.5% to 49.5%, but Clinton takes Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. She doesn't clear 52% in any, however, which may lead to a recount of sorts for any of the three.

[bagelman]

If there was a runoff in a US presidental election it would be state by state, NOT nationwide.

Here's what the November results would be:

All of the states not colored grey above would already have voted and their results would be final, although they may still hold elections statewide or within a CD if the results were less than 50% for the winner, AK-SEN for example. Thus, Trump leads 198-183 in the electoral college.

[bagelman]

Trump could still win:

[Rookie Yinzer]

The infantry would have been galvanized after Trump uspets Hillary in MI, WI, PA. No way she doesn't win if Democrats are given an opportunity to prevent Trump.


I believe there were a lot of people who didn't vote because they thought Clinton was inevitable and no way would we elect an incompetent tool like Trump. Hell I still can't believe it.

[Annatar]

In this scenario I see Wisconsin and Michigan flipping but Pennsylvania still voting Trump and putting him over the top. The question in Pennsylvania is where are the extra votes going to come from, there is no indication that Democratic voters stayed home in either Pittsburgh, Philadelphia or the suburbs, Clinton matched and exceeded Obama's performance in those areas, where are the extra votes going to come from.

[Skill and Chance]

In this scenario I see Wisconsin and Michigan flipping but Pennsylvania still voting Trump and putting him over the top. The question in Pennsylvania is where are the extra votes going to come from, there is no indication that Democratic voters stayed home in either Pittsburgh, Philadelphia or the suburbs, Clinton matched and exceeded Obama's performance in those areas, where are the extra votes going to come from.

It's also quite plausible that Clinton would go all in on Florida and Arizona for the runoff, after seeing how hard the Midwest had swung against her.  Florida plus any one of PA/MI/WI/AZ/NC would get the job done for her.

[Fuzzy Bear]

It would be about WI, MI, PA, FL, in that order.

Trump would not have lost FL; the voting environment was as favorable for the GOP as Rick Scott could possibly make it. 

[Politician]

[Bidenworth2020]

It would be about WI, MI, PA, FL, in that order.

Trump would not have lost FL; the voting environment was as favorable for the GOP as Rick Scott could possibly make it. 

you mean in terms of literally voting?

[Conservatopia]

I think Republicans would be energised, having held Congress and realising they have a chance to defeat Clinton.  Also the whole 'pussygate' scandal would have faded into the background somewhat more.  Trump would win and possibly flip Minnesota and New Hampshire into his column.

Johnson and McMullin supporters would not flock to Clinton.  Johnson himself said that internal polling showed a large majority of his supporters would have backed Trump in a Trump-Clinton contest.

[IceSpear]

Literally depends on what the media's story is in the final week.

Finally a logical post in these types of threads, lol.

[fluffypanther19]

Literally depends on what the media's story is in the final week.

Finally a logical post in these types of threads, lol.