Venezuelan presidential election, 2018 (20 May)
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Author Topic: Venezuelan presidential election, 2018 (20 May)  (Read 5977 times)
Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
Alex
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« on: March 01, 2018, 07:46:43 AM »
« edited: March 01, 2018, 06:31:12 PM by Alex »

Venezuela is having a snap presidential election on 22 April

Henri Falcón has gone against the wishes of the Mesa de Unidad Democrática, which supported a boycot of the election, and has registered as a candidate for president.

Maduro and Falcón are so far the only two candidates that really have a chance at winning, and Falcon is the only that doesn't have a recent history as a Chavista

While Falcon isn't the most popular candidate out of the MUD, everyone else including 2012 and 2013 candidate Capriles and imprisoned protest leader Leopoldo Lopez has been barred from running by the national government
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2018, 08:48:03 AM »

Any chance of Falcón winning? Or is it rigged?

Also, will it go to a 2nd round? Or will Maduro rig it so he wins in the 1st round?
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Mike88
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« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2018, 12:24:07 PM »

It seems it has been postponed to mid May.
 
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Lumine
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« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2018, 12:28:08 PM »

This is about as rigged and shambolic as it can be, even Putin-style elections are fairer.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2018, 12:46:34 PM »

Venezuelan presidential election vote-rigging contest, 2018
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
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« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2018, 02:45:47 PM »

the question is if the election will be rigged to look close, so they can say it isn't rigged, or rigged to say "hey look we have large popular mandate 78% yes ha ha"
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2018, 04:43:38 PM »

the question is if the election will be rigged to look close, so they can say it isn't rigged, or rigged to say "hey look we have large popular mandate 78% yes ha ha"

My guess is that they'll go for an intermedate route. Say, 65% Maduro, 34% Falcón, 1% others
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Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
Alex
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« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2018, 05:51:02 PM »

It seems it has been postponed to mid May.
 

Yes, they moved it to 20 May earlier today
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Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
Alex
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2018, 01:19:42 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2018, 07:32:13 PM by Alex »

There are 4 other candidates that are also running
Reinaldo Quijada, Francisco  Visconti and Luis Alejandro Ratti are campaigning on "via media" between Maduro and Falcon, in an "I supported Chavez, but Maduro is no good at all" line
Pentecostal pastor and businessman Javier "I am the light in the darkness" Bertucci is slightly more opposition-y than those 3, and is the only candidate with no current or former involvement with the PSUV/MVR, OTOH his rcord as a businessman is shady, having been investigated for contrabanding diesel fuel out of Venezuela and his name has appeared several times in the Panama Papers investigation
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Simfan34
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« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2018, 07:00:10 PM »

Where is ag to insist we categorise this as an "electoral-type event"?
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Skye
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2018, 12:22:00 PM »

Falcon is the only that doesn't have a recent history as a Chavista

He was a chavista until 2010, I'd say that counts as recent.

But yeah, Falcón won't win. I'd be shocked if he managed to reach 40% of the vote. He is a terrible candidate and was practically handpicked by Maduro to run against him.
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Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy
Alex
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2018, 12:17:42 AM »

The not very relevant Visconti won't be running anymore, it's still unclear if he left the race willingly or if the Electoral Commission found some reason that wouldn't allow him to run

And it seems that there's a new organization ready to replace the MUD, called the "Frente Amplio Nacional" (National Broad Front), which will launch this Thursday , but not much is known so far
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2018, 07:33:31 AM »

Here's how the ballot looks like



Very democratic indeed
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Skye
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« Reply #13 on: May 12, 2018, 08:49:11 PM »

Here's how the ballot looks like



Very democratic indeed

Considering 2 of the main opposition parties are banned and the rest refused to participate, yeah, no wonder it looks like that.

Maduro should win easily.
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jaichind
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« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2018, 11:31:47 AM »

Maduro should win but Falcon should get a good percentage of the votes.
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jaichind
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« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2018, 11:34:09 AM »

Turnout in wealthy area very low and higher in poorer areas.  Things are working the way Maduro planned it. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2018, 11:40:22 AM »

2.5 million which is around 12.5% have voted as of 10am. Voting ends 6pm.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2018, 02:43:47 PM »

Turnout in wealthy area very low and higher in poorer areas.  Things are working the way Maduro planned it. 

I guess poor people are (still) more pro-Maduro than Venezuela at large?
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jaichind
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« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2018, 02:52:59 PM »

Turnout in wealthy area very low and higher in poorer areas.  Things are working the way Maduro planned it. 

I guess poor people are (still) more pro-Maduro than Venezuela at large?

Yes.  And I think if they do not turn out they might not get their government subsidies since Maduro's gang will be at the voting booth keeping track of who turns out. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2018, 02:56:53 PM »

From AP:

Quote
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jaichind
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« Reply #20 on: May 20, 2018, 03:07:58 PM »

As of 1pm turnout is 25.8%
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Hash
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« Reply #21 on: May 20, 2018, 03:40:40 PM »

These turnout numbers are completely meaningless and part of a silly dick-measuring contest between the regime and its opponents, with the former claiming large turnout and the former claiming minuscule turnout (ie. an opposition-aligned pollster has 16% turnout at 3 p.m.). Given the CNE's legendary transparency and the regime's thirst for a big turnout, they'll likely massage the numbers, presumably to get turnout above 50%.

For reference, in last summer's fake constituent assembly elections, the official turnout was reported at over 41% while the opposition claimed less than 20%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #22 on: May 20, 2018, 07:16:41 PM »

MUD claims turnout is less than 30%. We will see what the administration claims.
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jaichind
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« Reply #23 on: May 20, 2018, 07:19:21 PM »

It seems turnout was 36%-37% around 4pm. 

Venezuelan Electoral Observatory, an electoral watchdog, projects turnout less than 50%
Pollster Delphos estimates turnout to be around 45%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #24 on: May 20, 2018, 07:39:28 PM »

2 hours after the polls supposed to have closed many are staying open and TV playing public announcements asking voters to vote.  I guess the turnout rate has not hit the target of the Maduro regime.
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