LA-Mason Dixon: Edwards +1/+3/+23 against Kennedy/Scalise/Abraham

[The Other Castro]

John Bel Edwards - 45%
John Kennedy - 44%

John Bel Edwards - 46%
Steve Scalise - 43%

John Bel Edwards - 51%
Ralph Abraham - 28%

Edwards approval rating: 55-31

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http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/article_f2fa6a1a-1ce1-11e8-9d0d-470ff6a13901.html

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

That's uncomfortably close, especially with the election being more than a year away still. Ugh.

[LimoLiberal]

Kind of feels unfair that Democrats can't get these numbers in Massachusetts or Maryland.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a pure tossup race, especially with the run-off system.  But, Edwards can avoid the run-off. Dems will win the MD gubernatorial election.

[Ebsy]

I doubt either Kennedy or Scalise runs.

[NewYorkExpress]

Kennedy might run, but after being shot last year, I doubt Scalise runs. If he does though watch out, the sympathy vote would power him to an easy win.

Abraham isn't going to win.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I have always been frustrated how popular Dem governors of GOP states almost always have close races, while popular GOP governors of Dem states seem to get off easy. Could be because Republicans are more tribal at all levels than Democrats.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kennedy was trying to become a senator for more than 10 years.
Why would he abandon his safe seat less than two years into his term for a tough fight against Edwards (especially in such an unfavorable environment)?

[Ronnie]

I have always been frustrated how popular Dem governors of GOP states almost always have close races, while popular GOP governors of Dem states seem to get off easy. Could be because Republicans are more tribal at all levels than Democrats.

If that's the case, then why are there significantly more red states with Dem senators than blue states with Republican senators?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA and LA have a system of run-offs and Edwards is the type of Democrat to avoid a run-off.

[KingSweden]

Lol so of course Abraham is who the LAGoP is consolidating behind

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, was not expecting this to be close at all.

[Pandaguineapig]

Surprised Landry is not polled since he is far more likely to run than Kennedy, Abrahams low numbers are probably due to no name recognition outside of his district as opposed to Kennedy and Scalise being known state wide

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I hope Abraham runs and wins the GOP nomination, then.

[Adam Griffin]

These numbers are JBE's floor and definitely closer to the GOP's ceiling. That 10% or so undecided in the tighter contests are nearly all JBE '15 voters who "just aren't sure" if they'll be supporting him again; among them is a solid number of non-tribal/non-rabid GOP leaners.

Given that 2019 will at best be a neutral year for the GOP, JBE's got the upper hand in a 45-45-10 starting situation (if only because he won in '15; any other statewide Deep South Dem would be on track to lose, of course).

[Rhenna]

As much as I believe Kennedy and Scalise won't run, this is scary for a Governor with such high approval.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Kind of feels unfair that Democrats can't get these numbers in Massachusetts or Maryland.

Racial polarization. Massachusetts is very elastic.

[Theodore]

Kennedy is looking into a run against Edwards. I think Kennedy will win, but I rather have him stay in the Senate.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Kennedy is looking into a run against Edwards. I think Kennedy will win, but I rather have him stay in the Senate.

I’d put money on it that Kennedy isn’t running.

[I’m not Stu]

If Scalise runs against Edwards, David DuKKKe will run for LA-01. If Kennedy runs against Edwards and wins, Duke will run against Kennedy's appointee in 2020.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I have always been frustrated how popular Dem governors of GOP states almost always have close races, while popular GOP governors of Dem states seem to get off easy. Could be because Republicans are more tribal at all levels than Democrats.

I wouldn't say that's the case. Look at TN, OK, KS, WY, & AZ in 2006, and more recently AR in 2010 and KY in 2011.

[Pandaguineapig]

If Scalise runs against Edwards, David DuKKKe will run for LA-01. If Kennedy runs against Edwards and wins, Duke will run against Kennedy's appointee in 2020.

The guy got 2% in his last race, your wet dreams about senator David Duke will never come trur

[TheSaint250]

I could possibly see Kennedy running if he gets increasingly more annoyed with Trump, though it is still unlikely.

[smoltchanov]

I think it’s pretty obvious Jeff Landry is interested in running for Governor, I don’t get why they didn’t poll him. He would be a fantastic candidate really.

I see nothing fantastic in ultraconservative orthodox.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Neither Kennedy or Scalise are going to run for Governor.  Going from where they are to having to run a state everyday.  Sure.