What will happen in the 2022 French presidential election?

[buritobr]

What do you think it will happen in France in 2022?

Will Emmanuel Macron run for reelection? Will he still be in the centrist En Marche? Will the Socialist Party and the Republican Party have their own candidates?
Or do you think the socialists will endorse Macron?
Or the republicans will endorse Macron?

[Former President tack50]

For now I'd say Macron runs as a centrist and wins again.

However it depends a lot on how his approval is.

If he is moderately popular he wins reelection
If he is unpopular but not much so he runs but loses (unless he gets to a Le Pen-Macron runoff or a Le Pen-Melenchon one)

If he has single digit approval ratings like Hollande he doesn't run and LREM dissolves. Le Pen or Melenchon become president.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

For now I'd say Macron runs as a centrist and wins again.

However it depends a lot on how his approval is.

If he is moderately popular he wins reelection
If he is unpopular but not much so he runs but loses (unless he gets to a Le Pen-Macron runoff or a Le Pen-Melenchon one)

If he has single digit approval ratings like Hollande he doesn't run and LREM dissolves. Le Pen or Melenchon become president.

Le Pen vs Melenchon runoff? I would be truly weeping for France if that ever happened, couldn't vote for either of them.

[mvd10]

With Wauquiez at the helm and the FN in shambles, I don't see why LR shouldn't be considered heavily favored to make the runoff versus Macron, despire the fact that Laurent's favorabilities are lower than Melénchon. 2027 is when the Left next makes the runoff, IMO - Ruffin versus someone from whatever the hell LR will be named by then, methinks.

This is what I predict too.

[DavidB.]

>implying an election will actually take place

[President Johnson]

Macron will runs as centrist and win I guess.

However, a friend of mine suggested that he'll either lose or not run again since France is hard to govern and therefore any president is a one-termer.

[windjammer]

Well, his main problem is that his ideology isn't really popular. But as all his opponents are extremely unpopular,...

[buritobr]

>implying an election will actually take place

Will Macron become a new Bonaparte?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't think Wauquiez will be the LR candidate.

[swl]

However, a friend of mine suggested that he'll either lose or not run again since France is hard to govern and therefore any president is a one-termer.

This is probably based on Sarkozy and Hollande terms, but the two before them lasted 14 years each.
And both Sarkozy and Hollande had to deal with a more complicated context. If things continue like that during 4 years (the economy does fine, the security situation remains stable) I think Macron could easily be re-elected.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Macron cedes first round votes to PS and to a lesser degree LR. With PS more competitive, Melenchon would be unlikely to gain on his previous performance. If FN gets its act together, which I think they will, it's probably a repeat of the previous runoff, but with Macron's margin of victory reduced. If FN is plagued by internal strife, LR probably gets to the runoff, but leftists reluctantly vote Macron and he wins again comfortably.

The only way I see Macron losing is if A) He has a huge scandal or B) Melenchon doesn't run, PS makes the runoff, and the election becomes a referendum on Macron's neoliberal economic reforms.

[TheSaint250]

I'd say it depends on both Macron's approval ratings and the state of the left-wing.  If there is a good PS nominee, then Macron's ability to make it into the second round will be more difficult.