How likely is a one-term Trump and then a one-term Democratic successor?

[All Along The Watchtower]

[I’m not Stu]

I'm not sure. I just said 50/50.

[twenty42]

Two one-term presidents in a row is historically unlikely.

[Skill and Chance]

Reasonably possible because Trump is polarizing enough that he could narrowly lose in a very good economy and then the next serious downturn happens during 2021-24 under the next Dem.   

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I don't think it's very likely. I also think he'll probably win reelection.

[Mr. Smith]

If Trump is a one-termer, he's gotten himself completely Cartered.

I'd be more certain of 2028 going to Democrats ala Bush Sr than a one-term Democrat right after Trump at this point.

[fluffypanther19]

I don't think it's very likely. I also think he'll probably win reelection.

Yeah, i think that dems make big gains in 2018 and that re-energizes conservative voters behind trump and he ends up winning narrowly again in 2020. Plus americans generally don't like kicking presidents out after one term unless they majorly screw up. As long as the economy is fine, i believe trump has a decent shot at being re-elected.

[YE]

I don't think it's very likely. I also think he'll probably win reelection.

Yeah, i think that dems make big gains in 2018 and that re-energizes conservative voters behind trump and he ends up winning narrowly again in 2020. Plus americans generally don't like kicking presidents out after one term unless they majorly screw up. As long as the economy is fine, i believe trump has a decent shot at being re-elected.

Am I the only one that thinks it won’t?

[dw93]

I voted 50/50. If Biden or Sanders beat Trump,  or if Trump pisses off enough people abroad but gets out before he can experience any of the fallout, then it's possible that a Democrat elected in 2020 is out after one term. What Skill and Chance says is possible to, but I think it's very unlikely as I can see this recovery lasting longer than the 1990s economic expansion.

However, I could also see the scenario that  L.D. Smith, Aggie! It's Real Expenses Again describes playing out to. Then there's also a good chance that the 8 years in 8 years out trend comes back after a Trump loss in 2020, so I think going with the 50/50 option was the best bet. I still maintain that Trump is more likely to lose in 2020 than win and the same would be true if Hillary won in 2016 as well. The 2016 election just gave off a "poisoned chalice" vibe to me.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Trump is a one-termer, he's gotten himself completely Cartered.

I'd be more certain of 2028 going to Democrats ala Bush Sr than a one-term Democrat right after Trump at this point.

Could be more like Harrison losing in 1892



Also Carter lost because of how bad the shape of the nation was in 1980 not because he was a scandalous president , and hated because of his personality  .

[Rookie Yinzer]

Depends when the economy takes a turn for the worse.

[Orser67]

I think it's somewhere between "somewhat unlikely" and "very unlikely." Sitting presidents are generally have a major advantage in presidential elections. With the exception of Carter, the sitting presidents since WW2 who have been defeated have been seeking a third or fourth term for their party (Bush I, Ford, and to some extent LBJ and Truman in the primaries). I think Trump is just not a great fit for the job, kind of like Jimmy Carter, though Trump is a worse fit and Carter faced a worse economy. So anyway, I think the Democrat would be strongly favored in 2024.

[Skill and Chance]

If Trump is a one-termer, he's gotten himself completely Cartered.

I'd be more certain of 2028 going to Democrats ala Bush Sr than a one-term Democrat right after Trump at this point.

Could be more like Harrison losing in 1892



Also Carter lost because of how bad the shape of the nation was in 1980 not because he was a scandalous president , and hated because of his personality  .

This is interesting.  Trump does seem a lot like Harrison- elected in an EV/PV split while his party controlled Congress, very into tariffs and more into government spending than much of his party, and also pushing back unsuccessfully against a growing national consensus on civil rights issues (though Harrison was pushing in the opposite direction as Trump and almost got an early version of the VRA through congress).

Of course, even though Democrats didn't control the federal government for 16 years after Cleveland's economically disastrous 2nd term ended, public policy generally evolved in a direction Cleveland would have favored, with any real breakthroughs for Harrison's vision many decades off.

[TML]

I think this scenario might transpire if the Democrats run an establishment candidate in 2020 who manages to pull out a victory, but then allows corporate interests to significantly influence his or her decision making while in office.

In fact, I believe that had Hillary won in 2016, she would likely end up as the Democratic/female version of George H. W. Bush for the reason I mentioned above.

[Sir Mohamed]

Somewhat unlikely. Presidents usually tend to win reelection. Two consecutive incumbents losing reelection has rarely happend. Last time was Ford '76 and Carter '80. Before that we have to go back to the 19th century. I think Trump will lose in 2020 but the Dem wins reelection in '24. It could be a Carter/Reagan/Bush redux: "Outsider candidate" wins, performs poor, loses reelection, a new prez sweeps into office, wins a second term and his successor becomes a member of his/her party as well. That one goes on to lose reelection to a more moderate opposition. Just wild guessing.

[here2view]

I voted for somewhat unlikely. I'd say Trump has about a 40-45% chance at winning reelection as of today (I think I have him losing 289-249 so similar to Bush's '04 win). I still think had Clinton won she would have lost in 2020 as well, so essentially a repeat of Reagan -> Bush Sr. with Obama -> Clinton.

I believe the odds are decent for the next Democratic President to serve two terms, especially if Trump wins reelection. There's also a good chance the next Democratic President has a majority in the House and the Senate (more so if they win in 2024 than 2020.)

[Calthrina950]

I think it is very likely that Trump serves only one term, but I am not sure about the administration following him. If Trump somehow does win reelection in 2020, than that would create the longest streak in American history of two-term presidents (given that every president elected since 1993 up to Trump served two terms: Clinton, Bush, and Obama, similar to the period 1801-1825 when Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe all served two terms). I would prefer for that not to happen. Could you imagine if we had a two-term stretch from 1993 all the way to 2033? Just five presidents in forty years!

[All Along The Watchtower]

To all of the people saying "Presidents are rarely xyz" or "there have been very few instances of abc", you do realize how small the sample size is and how much American politics, presidential elections, and the Presidency itself have changed over two centuries, yes? (And how things can and do change on a dime).

Things are unprecedented until they're not.

[Dr. MB]

Likely enough, depending on who the successor is.

[LabourJersey]

This is more likely than most think.


I'm mostly convinced Trump is a one-termer since the economy is most likely going to have a downturn before Oct. 2020, and that plus Trump's insanity/incompetence will doom him.

I think the GOP is going to be very, very demoralized until Trump leaves. Then I can foresee a kind of Tea Party 2.0 that spends all of 2021-24 clawing away and attacking whoever the Democratic President is.

I also think we're more likely to see one-termers now, since I believe with social media and the decreased relevance of campaign cash, the main advantages of presidential incumbency will decline

[Progressive Pessimist]

If it's Biden running and he wins, that one term pledge could come into play. There are a lot of assumptions but I think 50/50 is reasonable.

[Virginiá]

If it's Biden running and he wins, that one term pledge could come into play. There are a lot of assumptions but I think 50/50 is reasonable.

I read somewhere that Biden would heavily consider a one term pledge to negate the age issue if he were to run. I could see that playing pretty well

And so incredibly stupid. If a candidate has to make a one-term pledge because they are so old that no one (maybe even including themselves) thinks they can make it through two terms, then they just shouldn't run. Democrats need a candidate who can actually get favorable policy enacted and stick around to protect it, among many other things. Leaving after one term gives Republicans a chance to swoop in and undo everything. The fact is, Biden had his shot (more than once, actually), and he blew it every time.

After putting the country through Trump, Republicans deserve some time in the wilderness to find the marbles they lost since Obama happened.

[Virginiá]

I agree. Merely remarking on the electoral aspects of such a pledge though.

I know, it's just that the thought of Biden one-terming it at all, let alone on purpose sends me into a frenzy

As for Republicans losing their marbles once a black guy with a funny name came in, I think we’re welbpast the point of no return. The few Republicans who will displace those older ones who die out are, contrary to Atlas RINO delusions, not more moderate and inclusive, gay marriage tolerance aside. They’re more likely to be alt-right reactionaries and contrarians from my experience. I suspect that’s triggered by the fact that they realize their position at the top of the totem pole in American society is being threatened by a diversifying country. That doesn’t bode well for the party recollecting their marbles anytime soon.

Well, a nice, long break would be a start. Given the nature of politics and people, the best thing to pull them back from insanity would be a prolonged stay in the minority. Eventually, they may want to enact some policy of their own, at which point they'd make themselves at least a little presentable for a majority electorate that, by the mid-late 2020s/early 2030s, will probably be hostile to a 2010s-style Republican.

[Kyng]

There are three realistic (and mutually exclusive) ways in which this can fail to happen:

1) Trump might not be a one-termer. Somewhat unlikely, but definitely not impossible: as of right now, I'd put Trump's probability of being re-elected in the 30-40% range. Maybe he mellows out; maybe he gets some more popular achievements under his belt; maybe he stays unpopular but succeeds at making the Democratic nominee just as unpopular as he is.

2) One-term Trump's successor might not be a Democrat. Maybe he doesn't run in 2020 for whatever reason (could be for health reasons; could get impeached; could get defeated in the primary; or maybe his approvals go way underwater and he pulls out of the race). Although, I don't think the GOP nominee would have an easy time winning (in particular, if Trump got impeached or pulled out due to a <30% approval rating, his presidency would be an albatross around their neck). I'd give this case maybe a 10% chance.  

3) One-term Trump might have a two-term Democratic successor. So, if Trump has a Democratic successor, what are the chances that this successor would be re-elected in 2024? It's much to far out to predict with any kind of precision - but, normally, I'd give them about a 70% chance, simply due to the advantages that come from incumbency (being able to control the narrative, and so on). However, I'll revise that down a bit to 50-60%, to account for the very real possibility that his successor might be Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden: I can't see either of those candidates running for re-election in their early 80s. So, by a very rough calculation, I'd give this scenario roughly a 30% chance of happening (50-60% chance of one-term Trump succeeded by a Democrat, followed by a 50-60% chance of that Democrat being re-elected in 2024).

So, putting all of this together, we have the following four cases:

30-40%: Trump has two terms
10%: One-term Trump and then a Republican successor
30%: One-term Trump and then a two-term Democratic successor
20-30%: One-term Trump and then a one-term Democratic successor.

So, I'd make it "somewhat unlikely". The most plausible way in which it would happen, IMO, is Bernie or Biden winning in 2020, then declining to run in 2024 on account of their age.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Somewhat unlikely