How likely is a one-term Trump and then a one-term Democratic successor?

[Sadader]

I doubt think Biden would run on a one term pledge, but he probably won’t run for a second term. So his Veep/SoS appointments will be very important imo.

[Lechasseur]

This is more likely than most think.


I'm mostly convinced Trump is a one-termer since the economy is most likely going to have a downturn before Oct. 2020, and that plus Trump's insanity/incompetence will doom him.

I think the GOP is going to be very, very demoralized until Trump leaves. Then I can foresee a kind of Tea Party 2.0 that spends all of 2021-24 clawing away and attacking whoever the Democratic President is.

I also think we're more likely to see one-termers now, since I believe with social media and the decreased relevance of campaign cash, the main advantages of presidential incumbency will decline

Agreed

[History505]

Extremely unlikely. It’s much more likely that Trump wins reelection in 2020 and Democrats win 2024, 2028, 2032 and maybe 2036.

I don't think Democrats would rule for that long, if Trump wins in 2020. 2024 and 2028 for Dems possibly.

[pbrower2a]

At this point I see Donald Trump as a nearly-sure failure as President. He offends too many sensibilities and has not successfully brought people to his side after a flukish win based upon the distribution of votes. He needs to expand his electorate to win again, and I don;t see him doing so.

Two of the last three Presidents to lose bids for re-election are Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. (the elder Bush is a successor of a highly-successful president by any standard even in carrying the ideology or the predecessor). Ford lost in part because he didn't know how to campaign effectively, having never participated in any statewide election, and then to a mediocre-to-poor campaigner. The flukish event was that Carter could win.

Carter had a troubled Presidency, as did Ford, and against an adaptable opponent always capable of making his point (even if one hated the point). But Reagan was effective, and we know how that goes.

The first question is whether Donald Trump loses to a weak campaigner who can't solve the Trump mess who then loses to a slicker campaigner -- or whether he loses to a liberal equivalent of Ronald Reagan or a new FDR. The second question is whether that Democrat will be willing and able to run for a second term.

I see Trump having about an 80% chance of losing a re-election bid. The second is hard to estimate because it involves personalities and personal health that we do not really know.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once fillibuster is abolished, most Democratic agenda will be enacted, without obstruction, and economy for everyone with be enacted.

[Person Man]

This is more likely than most think.


I'm mostly convinced Trump is a one-termer since the economy is most likely going to have a downturn before Oct. 2020, and that plus Trump's insanity/incompetence will doom him.

I think the GOP is going to be very, very demoralized until Trump leaves. Then I can foresee a kind of Tea Party 2.0 that spends all of 2021-24 clawing away and attacking whoever the Democratic President is.

I also think we're more likely to see one-termers now, since I believe with social media and the decreased relevance of campaign cash, the main advantages of presidential incumbency will decline

Agreed

But incumbency hasn't been this strong since JQ!

[Consciously Unconscious]

It's definitely possible.  It's hard for me to see someone making a one term pledge, but the two most popular Democrats right now are pretty old, so it might be possible. 

[Bojack Horseman]

If Trump loses, I think it will be 1980-1992 with the parties reversed. 2020 will result in a liberal visionary icon winning the presidency, with the GOP still so unpopular that they lose in 2024 and 2028 as well.

[Skill and Chance]

Unlikely, but far from impossible.  Trump doesn't really have any ground he can lose and still win reelection.  A mild recession that turns into a deeper recession/collapse a couple years later is the most likely scenario for this to happen.

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think it's very likely. I also think he'll probably win reelection.

Yeah, i think that dems make big gains in 2018 and that re-energizes conservative voters behind trump and he ends up winning narrowly again in 2020. Plus americans generally don't like kicking presidents out after one term unless they majorly screw up. As long as the economy is fine, i believe trump has a decent shot at being re-elected.

This is my expected outcome.  Not sure what you have in mind by narrowly, but I do think Trump gets the PV next time, but only by 1 or 2% unless he's gone full Bill Clinton with an opposition congress.

[wesmoorenerd]

Trump has maybe 30-40% chances of winning reelection. However, out of that 60-70% of scenarios that he loses, I think his opponent has a good shot of winning reelection. Two term Presidents are absolutely the norm these days. Most likely scenario is Trump manages to stave off a recession long enough that blame for it falls to the Democrats, or perhaps an older Democrat like Sanders or Biden is elected that retires after one term. I put the odds at maybe 15-20%.

[Deblano]

If Bernie runs in 2020 and wins, he would probably be a one-termer.

As for a Democrat being a one-termer due to unpopularity, you would need a candidate that has trouble uniting various factions in the Democratic Party (i.e. President Cory Booker failing to get moderates and progressives to play nice)

[Galaxie]

If Bernie runs in 2020 and wins, he would probably be a one-termer.

Absolutely agree, and if we're going down the "progressive visionary" political cycle theory route, then he's the Democrat's guy for 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unless Booker or Gillibrand has a Benghazi moment, a 2 term admin will follow Trump's one term