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January 26, 2020, 12:05:06 am
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  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Would Romney have won without Amendment XXVI? Has it decided any election? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Would Romney have won without Amendment XXVI? Has it decided any election?  (Read 1099 times)
mvd10
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« on: March 06, 2018, 11:11:53 am »

Looking at these numbers it's pretty safe to say that he wouldn't have won even without Amendment XXVI. Assuming 18-21 year olds voted similar to 18-24 year olds and assuming they were roughly 5% of the electorate (seems reasonable) the gap still would be 3.9-0.24*5=2.7 percentage points (or actually slightly more because numerator/denominator issues). It would be extremely unlikely that 18-21 year olds are distributed in a way that would allow Romney to win if their votes were removed.

This only would have been a thing if the election was extremely close (2000-like close) or if 18-21 year olds voted Democratic 90-10 while the rest of the nation voted 50-50 (in that case the result would go from 50-50 without 18-21 year olds to 50-48 with them assuming they're 5% of the electorate).

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