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  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Would Romney have won without Amendment XXVI? Has it decided any election? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Would Romney have won without Amendment XXVI? Has it decided any election?  (Read 1088 times)
mathstatman
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« on: March 06, 2018, 06:10:11 pm »

I'm going to say the 26th Amendment has not decided any Presidential election.

2000 was so close in FL, that the "butterfly effect" (no pun intended) could easily have pushed it the other way. One poll I read showed Gore winning the youngest voters nationally 48-46.

So 2000 is a maybe.

While it is risky to assume that age gradients are consistent from state to state, it seems the 26th has contributed the following:

2004, flipped WI and possibly NH to Kerry.
2008, flipped NC and IN to Obama.
2012, flipped FL to Obama.
2016, flipped NH to Clinton.

I can't vouch for any state changes prior to 2004 (though NM in 2000 may have gone for Bush wihout the 18-20 y/o vote). Had Clinton won in 2016, her election would have been the first in which the 26th had an effect, as Trump surely would have won without it.
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