Indictment-O-Rama 2: The Lying Game

[Koharu]

Buckle Up!

NYT: Mueller Subpoenas Trump Organization, Demanding Documents About Russia

Ohhhhhhhhhh

Yeaaah!

[Koharu]

Is it just me or does dirt against Sessions coming to light seem like a worrying development? I have no love for that man at all, but Sessions as AG allows Rosenstein to maintain control over the investigation. If Sessions is out, a new AG will come in and assume authority over Mueller's investigation, and that could easily be devastating for his work if the new AG turns out to be a Trump lackey.

Now I just wonder if Trump will jump on this as an excuse to fire him.

That’s my concern too.

Mine, as well. Even though their may be contingencies at the state level, I feel that the power and ...solemnity of a federal investigation is what's needed here.

[Koharu]

Hmm.

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https://www.npr.org/2018/03/22/596056956/lead-lawyer-on-trumps-team-handling-special-counsel-russia-probe-resigns

[Koharu]

I mean, as much as I think Trump is likely to do this...
... why are we believing Russian propaganda TV?

[Koharu]

I'm getting some weird, spidey-sense-like feelings that this summer is going to be Interesting.

[Koharu]

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From this Times piece.

[Koharu]

So Rudy went on Hannity and said a) Trump repaid Cohen for Stormy and that b) he fired Comey for not saying he was being investigated. Nuclear Elmo?

Probably not, even though it should possibly be.

Also, oh, Rudy.

[Koharu]

EXCLUSIVE: Special counsel probing donations with foreign connections to Trump inauguration

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BUT BUT BUT BUT BUT!!!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/788150475258343424

No wonder this is what Trump accused her of so much. I knew he was way more "crooked" than Hillary in the ways he accused her of (since that info was made public many times), but it's nice to see the proof going into a legal investigation.

[Koharu]

I still find the "can't indict" thing fascinating. I tend to agree with this take: the president can be indicted, just not tried during his or her term.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/26/opinion/indict-president-trial.html

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So the law/political nerd in me would love to see an indictment (if appropriate and accurately researched) against a sitting president and the ensuing legal battle, but it looks like if there is anything Mueller finds that is indictment-worthy, he'll play it safe. Still, I can dream...

[Koharu]

Will Trump Be Meeting With His Counterpart — Or His Handler?

A plausible theory of mind-boggling collusion.
By Jonathan Chait

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http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/trump-putin-russia-collusion.html

Thank you for the link. I knew a good portion of this already, but this connected the dots with the parts I didn't know, and is well thought out, I feel. I wish this kind of thing could even just slightly shake the faith some of his followers have, bit I'm afraid it won't. While I want Trump to be held accountable, I am worried about reactions if Mueller's probe brings forth serious charge against Trump himself.

[Koharu]

I don't know about "treason" but it was, at the very least, a rather pathetic display by Trump. Imagine having this guy as your "champion". Yikes.

This. I don't think a statement on TV holds up to the definition of treason. What he may or may not have done in other places is something for the special investigator to find out.

He's awful, but this is no more than what I expected out of this "summit."

[Koharu]

Again and again, this is why the emoluments clause is so very important. I believe Trump was on the wrong side of it since he stepped into office. Now, of course, we are beginning to see what it looks like to have a President who is in violation of the emoluments clause, and why it's such a big deal, but I am afraid Congress will not act until things get much, much worse.

[Koharu]

http://www.businessinsider.com/maria-butina-russia-nra-civil-rights-group-2018-7

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Somehow this is not an Onion piece

We've been living in an Onion piece for the past two years.

Definitely feels like we went down the wrong leg of the trousers of time ever since I watched the results start coming in on election night.

[Koharu]

http://www.businessinsider.com/maria-butina-russia-nra-civil-rights-group-2018-7

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Somehow this is not an Onion piece

We've been living in an Onion piece for the past two years.

Definitely feels like we went down the wrong leg of the trousers of time ever since I watched the results start coming in on election night.

I like to believe it all started when the Cubs won the World Series.

I remember in fall 2016 people asking what was more likely: Trump or the Cubs winning?

And I said I would take trump winning if that meant the Cubs won as well. Sorry guys...

OMG! It's all you! ()

[Koharu]

Hate to be a party pooper, but how do we know that the text messages are actually, you know, real

Yeah, I haven't seen anything from legitimate sources about them, so I'm thinking they're fake until I hear otherwise.

[Koharu]

I think the main reason this was leaked was because it "proves" that Giuliani lied when he said Trump wasn't aware of a payment. Of course, we all know Rudy lies and Trump lies, but having it on tape makes it more difficult for folks to deny.

To me, this is just kind of a meh thing, but I get why Cohen's lawyer released it.

[Koharu]

I think the main reason this was leaked was because it "proves" that Giuliani lied when he said Trump wasn't aware of a payment. Of course, we all know Rudy lies and Trump lies, but having it on tape makes it more difficult for folks to deny.

To me, this is just kind of a meh thing, but I get why Cohen's lawyer released it.

Right. This isn’t hugely damaging to Trump, but it could be massively damaging to Cohen.

Are we conflating with this with Stormy Daniels? The Enquirer bought her story but there was no direct payment from Trump or Cohen and Cohen didn't set up a company to pay her. They just talked about doing it.

I'm not sure on that front. Regardless, it seems there were payments that Trump/Giuliani have denied even knowing about, but now there is proof that Trump knew about it, or at least discussed it, regardless of whether it ever went through or not.

[Koharu]

I, too, am all in favor of Mueller sniffing out all wrong-doing that falls under his purview, regardless of party. And if it helps convince at least some conservatives that it's not a "witch-hunt" against them specifically, then I'll happily take that benefit alongside justice being done.

[Koharu]

That sounds to me like a question on some of the bank fraud charges; the tax return matters would be more "strict liability".

Bear in mind too he could be found guilty on certain charges and not guilty on others. It isn’t all or nothing.

I kind of expect some of this to happen, especially if the jury does feel Gates is to blame for some of the crimes. I think he will be found guilty of some/most, but there may be a few he is aquitted of.

[Koharu]

I think it's likely that Manafort gets convicted...but the jury does hang on several counts, or maybe even acquits on one of the more technical and confusing counts.

Manafort going down on, like, 14 or 15 counts rather than 18 would be totally consistent with the jury's questions and such.

That’s been my thinking too

Yep, same here.

[Koharu]

I'm okay with them taking a few weeks; there were quite a few charges, and with this being such a high profile case, I'm sure there are jurors who feel they need to reflect on the specifications for each charge and be nit-picky about if the evidence fits that charge.

[Koharu]

https://twitter.com/jeremyherb/status/1031928344294682626

Sounds like there is one count that might hang.

Interesting. Would they retry just that one charge on its own, or would the whole trial be considered a mistrial? Anyone know?

[Koharu]

https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1031931462885490689

Woo. Today is a day with very interesting news!

https://twitter.com/jeremyherb/status/1031928344294682626

Sounds like there is one count that might hang.

Interesting. Would they retry just that one charge on its own, or would the whole trial be considered a mistrial? Anyone know?

I beliebe just a mistrial on that count. However, depending on how the other counts go, the prosecution may decline to retry if it’s just one count

Thank you. This is when I wish that this forum had reaction buttons so I could thank you without a whole post. But I appreciate the info, so here's a post!

[Koharu]

I'm okay with the written answers. I don't think Mueller wanted to press the subpoena issue and it wasn't likely Trump would have actually done an interview.

[Koharu]

https://twitter.com/davidjoachim/status/1037846906725117952

Nothing to hide!

Isn't this OoJ in itself?

No. This is a request, not a subpoena. There's legal debate about the subpoena issue, and even if he were subpoenaed, he could technically use the 5th amendment to avoid answering, though obviously that would make him look guilty.