Will the Democratic candidate win without Ohio

[Da2017]

Ohio is trending repubican. Whether or not Trump,s victory was a fluke remains to be seen.

[TML]

If the result in Ohio is R+5 or less, then the Democratic candidate will probably win nationally.

[Dr. MB]

It’s certainly possible. All the Dem needs to win is 2016 + PA, MI, and WI.

I’d look toward the 2018 governor’s and senate races as indicators. If the Democrats win both, Ohio is in play. If, somehow the Republicans win both (and unseat Sherrod Brown) Ohio’s going the way of West Virginia.

If it’s a landslide, the Democrat is winning Ohio for sure. If it’s a close election, I’d think Trump would win it, but maybe by not as large a margin as last time.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

They could, but I don't buy the idea that it's going the way of Missouri. I think it's still a bellwether for the foreseeable future.

[RINO Tom]

Ohio was a Republican-leaning swing state before Trump; it still is.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ohio was a Republican-leaning swing state before Trump; it still is.

Why was it in 2012 that even when Romney was tied with Obama nationally or even led he trailed in Ohio

[RINO Tom]

Ohio was a Republican-leaning swing state before Trump; it still is.

Not in 2004 and 2012. Also, its R lean was never really that strong before 2016.

But yeah, no Republican is winning the presidency without OH, period.

I might have done the math wrong, but Ohio has been more Republican than the nation every single year since 1988, with the exception of 2004.  It obviously had a big swing toward Trump, but it's worth noting that the Obama-Trump swing, percentagewise, was about the same as the Bush-Obama swing ... Obama and Trump were good fits for Ohio swing voters, but Ohio Republicans have been doing well in the state for quite a while.  I am of the opinion that Obama was actually a pretty darn good fit for the state (cutting into Republican suburban margins while also maintaining Democratic margins in working class areas), and so was Trump (keeping Republican suburban margins while making gains in Democratic working class areas).  I am not saying Ohio isn't more Republican now than it was 10-15 years ago, but it's pretty much always leaned right of the nation ... it's not like it was a Democratic-leaning state that was attracted specifically to Trump/especially hated Clinton ala Michigan.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ohio was a Republican-leaning swing state before Trump; it still is.

Not in 2004 and 2012. Also, its R lean was never really that strong before 2016.

But yeah, no Republican is winning the presidency without OH, period.

I might have done the math wrong, but Ohio has been more Republican than the nation every single year since 1988, with the exception of 2004.  It obviously had a big swing toward Trump, but it's worth noting that the Obama-Trump swing, percentagewise, was about the same as the Bush-Obama swing ... Obama and Trump were good fits for Ohio swing voters, but Ohio Republicans have been doing well in the state for quite a while.  I am of the opinion that Obama was actually a pretty darn good fit for the state (cutting into Republican suburban margins while also maintaining Democratic margins in working class areas), and so was Trump (keeping Republican suburban margins while making gains in Democratic working class areas).  I am not saying Ohio isn't more Republican now than it was 10-15 years ago, but it's pretty much always leaned right of the nation ... it's not like it was a Democratic-leaning state that was attracted specifically to Trump/especially hated Clinton ala Michigan.

I would say Kasich(as well as Strickland) turned Ohio from a tossup state to a Lean GOP state

[TDAS04]

Pretty good chance of it.  Right now I'm guessing that Democrats will win by taking MI, PA, WI, FL, and AZ, with OH narrowly going Republican.

[Skill and Chance]

I'll be pretty shocked if this doesn't happen sometime between 2020 and 2028.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

If the democrat wins a close election, yes. A democrat landslide would still go through Ohio, but they don't need it. Logically, PA, MI, and WI flip back before Ohio does, and probably NC, FL, and even GA too depending on the candidate and how far into the future we're talking about.

Republicans need Ohio. I think it will continue to trend their way. FL is the real bellwether. Maybe PA will be soon enough.

[Beet]

Technically it's possible of course but my gut says no. Ohio is a bellwether state; it has a microcosm of every part of America-- small towns and big cities; rust belt and sun belt; suburbs and Appalachia. If a Democrat is really going to win they will end up carrying Ohio, even as a surprise. Trump only got 51% here after all.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Maybe... Trump's performance here wasn't overwhelming. Hillary's was just underwhelming.

[I’m not Stu]

It's much easier for a Democrat to win without Ohio than it is for a Republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems won't ignore Ohio like Hillary did, because, its the bellweather of the election. Cordray has a good chance of winning and Sherrod Brown or Tim Ryan can run as a Veep candidate in 2020.

[Suburbia]

Both parties have to win Ohio.

A Republican can't win the White House without Ohio.

A Democrat now, with the 2012-2020 electoral map could win without Ohio, but they would probably like to win Ohio along with Pennsylvania and Michigan.

[I’m not Stu]

I don't know if the next Democratic President will win Ohio or not.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Dems won't ignore Ohio like Hillary did

LOL. This is fake news.