Phil Bredesen leads in PPP poll 46-41.

[gerritcole]

junk poll

[Doimper]

junk poll

junk poster

[Nichlemn]

I'm less bearish on Bredesen than I was when he got in, but I still think he's a clear underdog. Still, I think there's a lot more uncertainty in this race than usual for a Senate race, because it's just a fundamentally tricky question as to how much to weight the polls vs apparent candidate quality.  I would not be surprised at all if Bredesen lost by 10+, causing it to seem "obvious" in hindsight that partisan gravity would drag him back down to earth. I would also not be surprised if he won by a couple of points, and it turns out that all the "retread precedents" weren't as strong as they once appeared.

Predictit currently has him at a little under 40% to win. That seems too high to me, though probably not massively so.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

one thing that looks good for Bredi is he overperformed the polls by 10 in 2006...

Just because your buddy rams his car into a KFC once doesn't mean he'll do it again in the future.

[Peanut]

I think this is Tilt R. If that lead holds into a few months from here, it'll go to Tossup.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

It's too bad Bredesen was already Governor, since he's a good candidate and TN is much more likely to elect a Democrat as Governor than send one to Congress.

[fluffypanther19]

I think this is Tilt R. If that lead holds into a few months from here, it'll go to Tossup.

[Bidenworth2020]

just for the record, TN polls OVERWHELMINGLY estimate dems. Just as a few examples, they underestimated Haslam by 21 and Trump by 16.

Seems like cherry-picking to me. I think those were Vanderbilt polls in particular

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee,_2012#Polling_2

no, it is not. Actually, you are the one who is cherrypicking, because only one poll came out on that race more than a year out. I can keep going, such as when Alexander overperformed polls by 12, Haslam overperformed by 7 in 2010, TN-08 by 12, etc etc

Sounds like the argument many Republicans last year were arguing in VA-Gov. Republicans tend to overperformed their polling averages in Virginia and Tennessee in red wave years.

I mean,. Sure. But THAT much can't. Be attributed solely to "MUH red wave". Also, please don't call me the next limo, I am just pointing out the facts

[Blackacre]

Suddenly tossup!

[KingSweden]

I think this is Tilt R. If that lead holds into a few months from here, it'll go to Tossup.

[The Mikado]

Yeah. If Breseden is still leading in August or September, then we have a race.

[RJ]

Suffice it to say that one poll doesn't make a senate race but Bredesen has a real chance and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he wins. He was very popular when he left office and after the debacle in AL(although I think that's more a reflection of Roy Moore than anything) this is going to be competitive until the end.  Right now I think the signifigance is that the RNC will have to allocate funding for this campaign.

[Brittain33]

Suffice it to say that one poll doesn't make a senate race but Bredesen has a real chance and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he wins. 

This is the second poll with him leading significantly, too.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Suffice it to say that one poll doesn't make a senate race but Bredesen has a real chance and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he wins. 

This is the second poll with him leading significantly, too.

Probably just name recognition and his popularity as a former 2-term Governor. we'll see what the polls look like once the campaign really begins and Bredesen starts taking hits.