How did old money districts in the South vote?
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  How did old money districts in the South vote?
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Author Topic: How did old money districts in the South vote?  (Read 2178 times)
King of Kensington
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« on: March 11, 2018, 10:21:48 PM »

What was the vote like in old money districts in Atlanta, Nashville and so on?
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2018, 02:03:22 PM »

I'd say they'd lean Trump given their social+fiscal conservatism, but I'm certain they swung D as seen by places like Charleston and Birmingham and Houston and Atlanta swinging/trending D.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2018, 04:01:59 PM »

I'm guessing Trump won them by underwhelming margins compared to Romney. Lots of bare majorities and pluralities.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2018, 06:09:24 PM »

TX-32 is definitely the district that most fits this criteria, although it could be argued exactly how "Southern" Dallas is (I'd say its Southern, but definitely not the Deep South).  Pete Sessions was reelected here (he's retiring this year), but Hillary Clinton actually narrowly won it after Romney carried it quite easily in 2012.

As for the Atlanta districts, GA-07 includes most of the "old money" parts of Atlanta (ITP Buckhead) but GA-06 as a whole is probably wealthier and more educated.  Both voted substantially less Republican in 2016 following double-digit GOP victories in 2012.

Other districts with a significant amount of "old money" voters are maybe LA-01 (population is dominated by the relatively affluent Metairie/North Shore), AL-06 (debatable, but it includes Mtn Brook, which is in some estimations the wealthiest municipality in the South), FL-04 (suburban Jacksonnville, includes St Johns County - the wealthiest FL county by MHI), and SC-01 (White parts of Charleston and the South Carolina Low Country).  All of these districts swung Clinton, but Trump still won all of them.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2018, 07:51:16 PM »

TX-32 is definitely the district that most fits this criteria, although it could be argued exactly how "Southern" Dallas is (I'd say its Southern, but definitely not the Deep South).  Pete Sessions was reelected here (he's retiring this year), but Hillary Clinton actually narrowly won it after Romney carried it quite easily in 2012.

Wait, don't you mean someone else? Sessions is running again. He recently ran in and overwhelmingly won the primary for TX-32.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2018, 08:18:00 PM »

TX-32 is definitely the district that most fits this criteria, although it could be argued exactly how "Southern" Dallas is (I'd say its Southern, but definitely not the Deep South).  Pete Sessions was reelected here (he's retiring this year), but Hillary Clinton actually narrowly won it after Romney carried it quite easily in 2012.

As for the Atlanta districts, GA-07 includes most of the "old money" parts of Atlanta (ITP Buckhead) but GA-06 as a whole is probably wealthier and more educated.  Both voted substantially less Republican in 2016 following double-digit GOP victories in 2012.

Other districts with a significant amount of "old money" voters are maybe LA-01 (population is dominated by the relatively affluent Metairie/North Shore), AL-06 (debatable, but it includes Mtn Brook, which is in some estimations the wealthiest municipality in the South), FL-04 (suburban Jacksonnville, includes St Johns County - the wealthiest FL county by MHI), and SC-01 (White parts of Charleston and the South Carolina Low Country).  All of these districts swung Clinton, but Trump still won all of them.

So generally between 55% Trump to Clinton winning by 1-2% depending on how far out from the city they are?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #6 on: March 12, 2018, 10:43:23 PM »

TX-32 is definitely the district that most fits this criteria, although it could be argued exactly how "Southern" Dallas is (I'd say its Southern, but definitely not the Deep South).  Pete Sessions was reelected here (he's retiring this year), but Hillary Clinton actually narrowly won it after Romney carried it quite easily in 2012.

Wait, don't you mean someone else? Sessions is running again. He recently ran in and overwhelmingly won the primary for TX-32.

Ah, I was almost certainly confusing him with Sam Johnson (TX-03) who is retiring this year.

In fact, I was probably getting TX-32 and TX-03 confused all together.  TX-03 has an MHI of $88k while TX-32 has one of $70k.  TX-32 is probably still more "old money" though, since its entirely within Dallas County and is home to Preston Hollow (GWB retirement suburb) and University Park (MHI $198k).  TX-03 is Collin County, which is dominated by newer suburbs.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #7 on: March 12, 2018, 10:51:54 PM »

TX-32 is definitely the district that most fits this criteria, although it could be argued exactly how "Southern" Dallas is (I'd say its Southern, but definitely not the Deep South).  Pete Sessions was reelected here (he's retiring this year), but Hillary Clinton actually narrowly won it after Romney carried it quite easily in 2012.

As for the Atlanta districts, GA-07 includes most of the "old money" parts of Atlanta (ITP Buckhead) but GA-06 as a whole is probably wealthier and more educated.  Both voted substantially less Republican in 2016 following double-digit GOP victories in 2012.

Other districts with a significant amount of "old money" voters are maybe LA-01 (population is dominated by the relatively affluent Metairie/North Shore), AL-06 (debatable, but it includes Mtn Brook, which is in some estimations the wealthiest municipality in the South), FL-04 (suburban Jacksonnville, includes St Johns County - the wealthiest FL county by MHI), and SC-01 (White parts of Charleston and the South Carolina Low Country).  All of these districts swung Clinton, but Trump still won all of them.

So generally between 55% Trump to Clinton winning by 1-2% depending on how far out from the city they are?

Depends, LA-01, SC-01 and AL-06 were certainly never competitive for Clinton.  The districts that are more monolithically suburban (while maybe not dominated by "old money") tended to be better for her.



There is some regional nuance here.  "Old money"/Mainline/streetcar suburbs are way less prevalent in the South than the Northeast/Midwest because most wealth in the South was held in agrarian interests until after WWII.  There are more extensive mainline suburbs in Southern metroes that had significant commercial/business activity prior to World War II (namely Atlanta and New Orleans, Memphis too to a certain extent) but they're almost non-existent in cities that grew rapidly during the "New South" era (Charlotte, Nashville, etc.)   
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2018, 10:21:55 PM »

In the precinct that the River Oaks (Houston) country club is located in, Trump won 56-39. But Romney beat Obama in that precinct 78-21.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/creating-a-national-precinct-map/
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« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2018, 11:19:38 PM »

In Tennessee, I would look for Brentwood and Franklin in Williamson County and Belle Meade in Davidson County.

From eyeballing it, Trump seems to have gotten about 70% of the two-party vote in Brentwood (compared to 75-80% for Romney), about 65% in Franklin, compared to maybe 70% for Romney (but Franklin has some amount of an urban core of its own that was significantly closer, albeit still won by Trump).

Belle Meade had a massive swing, from Romney winning the two-party vote 78-22 to Trump only winning it 62-38.  Granted, third party votes increased from 17 to 113 (all but six of the 113 for Johnson) over that time period.  I can't seem to find the precinct data for the 2015 Nashville mayoral race, but I remember hearing that it voted 90% for David Fox in the technically non-partisan race.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2018, 11:34:07 PM »

In the precinct that the River Oaks (Houston) country club is located in, Trump won 56-39. But Romney beat Obama in that precinct 78-21.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/creating-a-national-precinct-map/

So basically they don't like Trump, "but Hillary is worse."
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Joe McCarthy Was Right
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« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2018, 12:30:15 AM »

In the precinct that the River Oaks (Houston) country club is located in, Trump won 56-39. But Romney beat Obama in that precinct 78-21.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/creating-a-national-precinct-map/

So basically they don't like Trump, "but Hillary is worse."
They also voted for not Cruz, but Rubio in the primaries. It would seem those voters are liberal on immigration but conservative on everything else.
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