Does the 2018 Mississippi Special election really matter?
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  Does the 2018 Mississippi Special election really matter?
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Author Topic: Does the 2018 Mississippi Special election really matter?  (Read 667 times)
un
UnbredBoat348
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« on: March 12, 2018, 09:31:01 PM »

It's hard to see a way it could, unless a Roy Moore type situation happens again. But I want to hear someone else's thoughts.
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Kyng
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« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2018, 07:15:39 PM »

Well, let's look at the demographic breakdown of both Mississippi and Alabama:

According to the 2010 US Census, Alabama was 68.6% White (67.0% non-Hispanic White), 26.2% Black, and 5.2% Other or Mixed. (3.9% were Hispanic or Latino of any race, so so I'm guessing about 2 of that 5.2% is Hispanics who don't self-identify as anything else, and 3.2% is Asians, Native Americans, Mixed, and so on)

Compare this to the CNN exit poll for the 2017 special election: 66% non-Hispanic White, 29% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Other. Essentially, blacks are overrepresented by roughly 3%, and the other racial groups are underrepresented by roughly 1% each.

Now, let's look at Mississippi. According to the 2010 US Census, this is 59.1% White (58.0% non-Hispanic White), 37.0% Black, 3.9% Other or Mixed (2.7% Hispanic or Latino of any race). If we apply similar shifts to those in Alabama, we'd end up with an electorate which is 57% non-Hispanic White, 40% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Others.

Now, in Alabama, Doug Jones got 30% of the White vote and 96% of the Black vote (the other groups were too small to show up in the exit poll). Barring a Roy Moore situation, I won't be as generous to the Democratic nominee in Mississippi: I'll give them 92.5% of the Black vote and 67% of Hispanics and Others. This alone would get the Democrat to (40 * 0.925) + (3 * 0.67) = 39% of the popular vote. The remaining 11% would need to come from non-Hispanic White voters - so, the Democrat would require (11/57 * 100) = 19.3% of the non-Hispanic White vote. Not the 30% that Doug Jones got in Alabama - but then, the GOP nominee isn't Roy Moore either.

So, with some generous assumptions - including a demographic turnout profile similar to that seen in Alabama - it'd be doable.

I'd still consider it to be Likely R: a big ask if the GOP candidate is even half-decent, but you never know.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2018, 07:22:38 PM »

There was a poll that was just released that showed Democrats leading.
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2018, 09:08:40 PM »

It matters. It's important to defeat Chris McDaniel. I would prefer an R vs. R runoff so that the appointed establishment incumbent can win against McDaniel.
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mcmikk
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« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2018, 09:09:08 PM »

A better question is why is this in the Gubernatorial Elections board?
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I’m not Stu
ERM64man
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« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2018, 09:27:43 PM »

There was a poll that was just released that showed Democrats leading.
I put it on Wikipedia, but it was deleted for allegedly being fake. Here's the explanation for deletion.
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