AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Tender Branson]

Do you think Dr. Hiral could become "America's Next Super-Lamb" or will this turn out to be harder than PA-18, Alabama etc. ?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Doubt it. The GOP actually fielded a decent candidate here this time.

[Bidenworth2020]

Doubt it. The GOP actually fielded a decent candidate here this time.

look at her campaign finances...

[JG]

No, she won't and pundits will act like this is the ultimate proof that the blue wave is dead.

[Tender Branson]

No, he won't and pundits will act like this is the ultimate proof that the blue wave is dead.

She.

[JG]

No, he won't and pundits will act like this is the ultimate proof that the blue wave is dead.

She.

Oops. Thanks!

[Gass3268]

No, but the swings will be interesting.

[Webnicz]

Doubt it. The GOP actually fielded a decent candidate here this time.

Those of us in AZ know lesko is not a decent candidate. She is very much behind the defunding of our public schools which caused our state to plummet in rankings and have a serious teacher shortage.

[Cactus Jack]

It isn't likely, but Lesko is enough of a moron that it's not out of the question. She isn't the disaster tier candidate Montenegro would have been, but she has Saccone potential and non-Mohave Arizona is universally swinging.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This Lesko definitely looks like she could turn out to be a Saccone-esque candidate.

[The Arizonan]

One factor in this race is how red the district is.

[Tekken_Guy]

There's a chance.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Guys, she can do this. We were saying the same thing about Conor just two months ago. Look at the two candidates: Lesko looks like someone who is as crazy and obnoxious as Saccone, and Tipirneri looks promising and hopeful like Lamb. Don't write her off


Note: I was right about Northam, Jones, Young, and Lamb.

[Jeppe]

Guys, she can do this. We were saying the same thing about Conor just two months ago. Look at the two candidates: Lesko looks like someone who is as crazy and obnoxious as Saccone, and Tipirneri looks promising and hopeful like Lamb. Don't write her off

[Progressive Pessimist]

I doubt a win here, but I do look forward to the margins. The Republicans in recent special elections, even when they win, have all consistently underperformed Trump's margins. We may not have really looked at the Montana or Georgia specials as such since they were loses following the 2016 Presidential election loss for the Democrats, and continued to make us Democrats feel blue, but there were pretty large swings even back then. I'll take any assurance that a wave will happen even if we don't have a Conor Lamb in every special election district before the midterms.

[Xing]

I mean, especially after Alabama and PA-18, I'm not ready to rule out anything at this point, but it's unlikely, since this district is significantly more Republican than PA-18. I'll say Likely R out of an abundance of caution.

[Cactus Jack]

One thing to bear in mind about AZ-08, beyond Hiral being a good draw and Lesko being an idiot, is its trend in 2016. What sets this district apart from AZ-08, beyond the fact that it's almost entirely made up of suburbs, is that it actually swung toward Clinton while PA-18 slammed home for Trump. I'll grant, of course, that AZ-08 is swinging more slowly than the likes of AZ-02 and AZ-06, but it's still swinging and could post some fascinating results in a cycle where the Republicans have consistently been underperforming my colossal margins.

[smoltchanov]

Not even close. Lesko is a standard conservative, who fits this conservative district rather well, without known big vulnerabilities..

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My intitial guess as of what is here rn is 56-43-1 for Lesko.

[Jeppe]

https://youtu.be/3MDXEZyAxtw

Tipernini going for the jugular against Lesko in her attack ad.

There’s apparently a major poll drop on Monday too.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why is this thread entitled "general election"?

[Tender Branson]

Why is this thread entitled "general election"?

Because the primaries were already held.

PS: I think this race is closer than people think ... (maybe within 5-10 points). And could very well become really tight.

[Smash255]

Why is this thread entitled "general election"?

Because the primaries were already held.

PS: I think this race is closer than people think ... (maybe within 5-10 points). And could very well become really tight.

Think Crabcake meant why wasn't it labeled "Special Election" instead.

While possible, I think this is a bit tougher than PA-18.  The district went to Trump by a couple points more than PA-18, is historically more Republican. 

[Jeppe]

We should have an AZ-08 megathread. The race is probably going to heat up soon, Republicans just can’t help but endanger safe seats like this in Trump’s America.

[Tender Branson]

We should have an AZ-08 megathread. The race is probably going to heat up soon, Republicans just can’t help but endanger safe seats like this in Trump’s America.

This is the right place then.