“Negative roll-off” in North Carolina, 1984

[mianfei]

In the elections of 1984, an unusual phenomenon occurred in North Carolina in that more North Carolinians voted in the Senate election between controversial incumbent Jesse Helms and Democratic ex-Governor Jim Hunt than in the Presidential battle between Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale.

Given Helms’ controversial comments on race and Hunt’s unanimous support among blacks, I had previously thought this negative roll-off was due to a turn-out against Helms in the black counties. In order to test this assumption, I have:

• tabulated the total vote in the two elections by county
• listed the difference between the Senatorial and Presidential votes by county
• ordered the counties from most Democratic to most Republican in Presidential vote
• listed the differences in percentage vote and total vote

(Space limitations mean that only the fifty most Democratic counties will be listed in this post, with the fifty most Republican listed in the next post):

County	Mondale minus Hunt#	Mondale minus Hunt#	Reagan minus Helms#	Reagan minus Helms%	Presidential vote minus Senate vote	Presidential margin minus Senate margin	Roll-off percentage
Northampton	-665	-3.97%	164	4.08%	-513	8.06%	-6.16%
Warren	-192	-2.64%	178	2.84%	-27	5.49%	-0.41%
Hertford	-697	-6.36%	410	6.76%	-321	13.12%	-4.17%
Bertie	-591	-5.33%	261	5.69%	-358	11.02%	-5.21%
Anson	-436	-5.84%	558	5.86%	120	11.71%	1.37%
Orange	-4,264	-12.03%	4,446	12.13%	147	24.17%	0.41%
Gates	-234	-7.47%	330	7.55%	93	15.03%	2.37%
Hoke	-441	-8.76%	536	8.92%	86	17.68%	1.51%
Robeson	-3,679	-8.38%	1,694	8.73%	-2,099	17.11%	-7.42%
Washington	-334	-5.66%	435	7.47%	-5	13.13%	-0.09%
Durham	-7,858	-10.81%	6,204	11.19%	-1,895	22.00%	-3.08%
Richmond	-1,027	-6.09%	813	6.43%	-263	12.53%	-1.84%
Edgecombe	-1,300	-5.20%	897	5.35%	-434	10.55%	-2.15%
Bladen	-674	-5.49%	481	5.95%	-240	11.44%	-2.45%
Halifax	-1,219	-4.22%	420	4.31%	-818	8.53%	-4.51%
Tyrrell	-76	-2.73%	107	8.32%	-61	11.06%	-3.85%
Caswell	-470	-6.50%	578	6.52%	107	13.02%	1.31%
Swain	-464	-5.63%	45	5.83%	-429	11.47%	-10.67%
Scotland	-1,031	-11.43%	882	11.67%	-169	23.10%	-2.08%
Jones	-122	-3.72%	175	3.62%	57	7.33%	1.39%
Columbus	-1,767	-6.09%	601	6.44%	-1,233	12.53%	-6.89%
Martin	469	-5.39%	1,255	5.52%	1,719	10.92%	21.08%
Duplin	-888	-6.83%	1,101	6.94%	198	13.77%	1.36%
Chatham	-1,309	-8.62%	1,487	8.84%	144	17.46%	0.89%
Greene	-308	-5.75%	384	5.88%	68	11.63%	1.14%
Vance	-908	-2.87%	548	8.25%	-1,106	11.12%	-8.69%
Pender	-564	-6.75%	706	6.77%	140	13.52%	1.48%
Sampson	-1,468	-5.74%	863	5.92%	-644	11.65%	-3.25%
Yancey	-431	-5.30%	402	5.16%	-18	10.46%	-0.23%
Pamlico	-269	-6.60%	359	6.79%	81	13.39%	1.72%
Hyde	-116	-6.38%	167	6.57%	47	12.94%	2.13%
Camden	-128	-6.32%	168	6.27%	41	12.59%	1.74%
Pasquotank	-1,054	-9.66%	671	10.09%	-422	19.74%	-4.96%
Granville	-1,101	-8.87%	924	8.52%	-137	17.39%	-1.18%
Madison	-1,875	-11.52%	-52	11.85%	-1,965	23.37%	-29.38%
Chowan	-553	-9.15%	221	9.87%	-364	19.02%	-9.29%
Franklin	-817	-7.28%	776	7.49%	-64	14.77%	-0.59%
Haywood	-1,801	-8.19%	1,305	8.78%	-609	16.97%	-3.36%
Jackson	-1,339	-9.99%	718	10.13%	-637	20.12%	-6.39%
Alleghany	-353	-6.56%	254	6.58%	-100	13.14%	-2.17%
Montgomery	-510	-6.69%	712	6.96%	178	13.64%	1.99%
Perquimans	-288	-9.59%	358	9.59%	70	19.17%	2.07%
Cumberland	-7,600	-12.25%	6,024	12.56%	-1,754	24.82%	-3.23%
Pitt	-3,465	-10.21%	3,284	10.50%	-275	20.72%	-0.85%
Brunswick	-1,490	-8.13%	1,270	8.64%	-307	16.75%	-1.86%
Wilson	-3,154	-11.46%	1,648	11.50%	-1,516	22.96%	-7.34%
Beaufort	-1,216	-8.37%	1,377	8.52%	138	16.90%	0.90%
Lenoir	-1,020	-5.72%	1,562	5.83%	519	11.54%	2.37%
Harnett	-1,958	-8.51%	1,165	8.77%	-845	17.27%	-4.61%
Guilford	-15,994	-11.47%	11,725	11.74%	-4,614	23.20%	-3.87%

[mianfei]

County	Mondale minus Hunt#	Mondale minus Hunt#	Reagan minus Helms#	Reagan minus Helms%	Presidential vote minus Senate vote	Presidential margin minus Senate margin	Roll-off percentage
Forsyth	-14,147	-12.72%	10,633	12.95%	-3,749	25.67%	-3.90%
Wake	-25,651	-15.66%	16,189	15.52%	-9,296	31.18%	-7.05%
Buncombe	-9,274	-12.48%	6,360	12.98%	-3,244	25.45%	-5.30%
Ashe	-793	-6.38%	542	6.44%	-259	12.82%	-2.43%
Rutherford	-1,756	-7.27%	897	7.76%	-956	15.03%	-5.23%
Person	-1,140	-9.60%	737	10.62%	-505	20.22%	-5.37%
Cleveland	-2,173	-7.42%	1,893	7.50%	-302	14.91%	-1.10%
Clay	-175	-5.05%	180	4.67%	19	9.72%	0.53%
Graham	-252	-6.18%	241	6.13%	-9	12.31%	-0.22%
Rockingham	-2,813	-10.06%	3,039	10.42%	124	20.48%	0.43%
Mecklenburg	-23,260	-12.97%	21,741	13.43%	-2,316	26.41%	-1.36%
Currituck	-490	-12.02%	610	12.02%	120	24.05%	2.63%
Cherokee	-701	-5.99%	148	6.22%	-573	12.20%	-7.46%
Craven	-2,385	-9.81%	1,538	10.06%	-900	19.87%	-4.47%
Wayne	-2,525	-7.63%	1,710	7.91%	-896	15.53%	-3.20%
Burke	-1,708	-6.34%	2,124	6.62%	336	12.95%	1.15%
Watauga	-1,930	-12.82%	1,957	13.86%	-127	26.68%	-0.87%
Surry	-2,254	-8.34%	1,135	8.91%	-1,245	17.25%	-6.05%
Polk	-862	-9.70%	389	11.16%	-575	20.86%	-9.20%
Transylvania	-1,193	-10.74%	1,154	11.23%	-92	21.97%	-0.86%
Macon	-1,937	-9.19%	-292	9.40%	-2,260	18.59%	-22.04%
McDowell	-448	-9.48%	1,975	9.74%	1,503	19.22%	12.81%
New Hanover	-5,238	-12.91%	4,256	13.27%	-1,123	26.18%	-3.08%
Stokes	-1,247	-8.33%	1,165	8.41%	-95	16.74%	-0.66%
Carteret	-1,683	-7.56%	892	7.97%	-869	15.52%	-4.95%
Nash	-2,242	-7.39%	1,495	7.60%	-803	15.00%	-3.10%
Johnston	-2,256	-8.96%	2,080	9.21%	-235	18.17%	-0.98%
Moore	-2,300	-9.53%	1,845	9.88%	-534	19.41%	-2.45%
Lee	-2,008	-13.13%	1,168	13.64%	-908	26.77%	-7.47%
Lincoln	-1,558	-7.96%	1,435	8.28%	-185	16.24%	-0.99%
Stanly	-1,789	-7.11%	749	7.27%	-1,075	14.38%	-5.57%
Alamance	-4,271	-10.21%	3,406	10.90%	-1,134	21.10%	-3.03%
Caldwell	-1,921	-8.07%	2,109	8.33%	127	16.40%	0.52%
Iredell	-3,527	-9.88%	3,161	10.26%	-495	20.15%	-1.47%
Rowan	-3,079	-7.40%	2,045	7.68%	-1,141	15.08%	-3.18%
Alexander	-923	-7.83%	1,009	7.98%	68	15.82%	0.56%
Union	-2,441	-9.74%	2,201	9.86%	-267	19.60%	-1.11%
Onslow	-2,547	-11.47%	1,909	11.83%	-711	23.30%	-3.61%
Dare	-1,201	-17.02%	1,030	17.06%	-174	34.08%	-2.64%
Cabarrus	-3,501	-9.08%	1,716	9.35%	-1,877	18.42%	-6.04%
Davidson	-4,965	-9.91%	2,938	10.19%	-2,152	20.10%	-5.12%
Henderson	-2,980	-11.24%	3,088	11.44%	53	22.68%	0.20%
Catawba	-3,663	-8.26%	3,562	8.61%	-253	16.87%	-0.58%
Wilkes	-2,423	-8.06%	1,423	8.21%	-1,045	16.27%	-4.09%
Gaston	-4,955	-8.62%	4,157	9.00%	-1,004	17.62%	-1.88%
Davie	-874	-8.24%	1,045	8.67%	125	16.90%	1.12%
Yadkin	-798	-6.95%	928	6.97%	129	13.93%	1.07%
Randolph	-3,967	-9.82%	1,928	10.13%	-2,147	19.95%	-6.45%
Mitchell	-457	-5.49%	13	5.87%	-469	11.35%	-7.77%
Avery	-471	-7.98%	463	7.92%	-5	15.90%	-0.08%

What one actually seems to see in these two tables is that most roll-off seems to have occurred in the mountain counties, not in the heavily black counties where opposition to Helms’ racial views I would have guessed to motivate the unusual state of affairs seen in North Carolina’s 1984 elections. However, in these mountain counties with large percentages there seem to be very large local differences – so large I had to do a major check compiling the table.

[Adam Griffin]

It may not the case, but I just want to be sure:

I noticed that the four biggest outliers all begin with the letter M (-29.38% for Madison, -22.04% for Macon, 12.81% for McDowell & 21.08% for Martin) and are all in contiguous alphabetical order. Whenever I was combining multiple election and/or county data-sets, some of the data-sets would have the counties in alphabetical order with "Ma" entries first; others would begin with the "Mc" counties. This would lead to data for any counties beginning with Ma-Mc being associated with the wrong ones.

In the event you used two or more separate sources of data, did you make sure that one didn't sort as "McDowell, Macon, Madison, Martin" and the other as "Macon, Madison, Martin, McDowell"?

[jimrtex]

It may not the case, but I just want to be sure:

I noticed that the four biggest outliers all begin with the letter M (-29.38% for Madison, -22.04% for Macon, 12.81% for McDowell & 21.08% for Martin) and are all in contiguous alphabetical order. Whenever I was combining multiple election and/or county data-sets, some of the data-sets would have the counties in alphabetical order with "Ma" entries first; others would begin with the "Mc" counties. This would lead to data for any counties beginning with Ma-Mc being associated with the wrong ones.

In the event you used two or more separate sources of data, did you make sure that one didn't sort as "McDowell, Macon, Madison, Martin" and the other as "Macon, Madison, Martin, McDowell"?

The Census Bureau sorts using a traditional collating sequence, treating "Mc" as distinct from "M" - or alternatively treating "Mc" as a shortened form of "Mac". In either case, McDowell comes before Macon, Martin, Madison.

The Census Bureau would be presenting tabular data for the entire country, and would want some consistency. Later, they would maintain this order by assigning ID numbers based on traditional order. State's were sometimes inconsistent, or perhaps used M^cDowell. Joe McDowell might have signed his name the same way, (there is some ambiguity whether McDowell County is named for Joe "Quaker Meadows" McDowell or his cousin Joe "Pleasant Gardens" McDowell, both who were present at the battle of Kings Mountain, and both served in Congress. Both had died long before the county was created in 1842).

Sometimes states were indifferent or careless with spelling. The Oregon territorial legislature created the first two counties in Washington and named them Lewis and Clarke. It was not until 1925 that Washington fixed the spelling (Lewis was everything west of the Cascades, Clarke was everything upstream from Fort Vancouver in the Columbia Basis, mostly east of the Cascades).

Lavaca County Texas was originally La Baca. There is a space in the name of La Salle County, Texas, but not in its Illinois cousin LaSalle County. Nonetheless, La Salle comes between Lampasas and Lavaca.

The election results for 1992 on the NC Board of Elections website present counties in a computerized collating sequence, with MACON, MADISON, MARTIN, before MCDOWELL.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

To be honest, negative roll off was more likely in North Carolina due to the strange way in which straight ticket voting worked in the state.

There was an option at the top of the ballot to check a box, and have a vote counted towards every candidate from that party in every election in many states.

However, in North Carolina, that excluded Presidential races; voters also had to fill in a box for the presidential race to cast a vote in it, even if they voted straight ticket.

So many people would be casting a straight ticket vote, and skipping the presidential race in the process, without being aware that they actually skipped the presidential race.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the precise definition of negative roll-off?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

What is the precise definition of negative roll-off?

When the total number of votes cast in a downballot race in a presidential year is higher than the number of votes cast in the presidential race.

[StateBoiler]

To be honest, negative roll off was more likely in North Carolina due to the strange way in which straight ticket voting worked in the state.

There was an option at the top of the ballot to check a box, and have a vote counted towards every candidate from that party in every election in many states.

However, in North Carolina, that excluded Presidential races; voters also had to fill in a box for the presidential race to cast a vote in it, even if they voted straight ticket.

So many people would be casting a straight ticket vote, and skipping the presidential race in the process, without being aware that they actually skipped the presidential race.

(lifelong N.C. resident until 5 years ago)

Part of the state Democratic Party's efforts to want to have nothing to deal with the national party when they ran the state for more than a hundred years consecutively so as to not lose votes from lazy voters that couldn't stand the likes of McCarthy or Mondale.