Why Oregon gubernatorial races are more competitive than on presidential level?

[UWS]

As we know, Oregon is a Democratic stronghold that votes Democrat by over 10 percentage points in the presidential elections. And yet, on the gubernatorial level, the races are more competitive, especially since the 2002 election. Since then, the Democratic candidate won only by between 2 and 8 percentage points (Democrat by 3 points in 2002, Democrat by 8 points in 2006, Democrat by 1.5 points in 2010, Democrat by 5 points in 2014 and Democrat by 7 points in 2016)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_gubernatorial_election,_2002

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_gubernatorial_election,_2006

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_gubernatorial_election,_2010

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_gubernatorial_special_election,_2016

And for the 2018 Oregon gubernatorial election, it seens to be once again a toss-up since Oregon Governor Kate Brown is leading her potential Republican opponents in the polls by only 2 or 3 percentage points.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_gubernatorial_election,_2018#Polling_2

Why is Oregon more competitive on the gubernatorial level than on the presidential level?

[Pollster]

Oregon is an elastic non-swing state, meaning that independents are a plurality of the electorate but that among the partisan electorate, one party has a clear advantage. These states are the most likely to elect governors of the opposite party than their lean, i.e. Rhode Island, Alaska, Montana.

In Oregon the electorate is about 45% I, 33% D, 22% R. An elastic blue state.

[henster]

Still an off year electorate despite VBM and voters seem more willing to vote for 3rd party candidates in gubernatorial races than presidential.

[smoltchanov]

One additional factor - Republicans in Oregon frequently (though - not always) run more sane candidates then on national level. That may attract considerale number of Indies..

[Dr. MB]

One additional factor - Republicans in Oregon frequently (though - not always) run more sane candidates then on national level. That may attract considerale number of Indies..

There hasn't been a significantly crazy GOP nominee since Bill Sizemore in 1998 (actually, he's been the only non-center-right candidate they've nominated), and he was crushed.

[Xing]

It's a pretty normal thing for gubernatorial races to be closer in Safe D/R states.

[IceSpear]

Pretty much every state is more competitive in gubernatorial races than on the presidential level.

[fluffypanther19]

Pretty much every state is more competitive in gubernatorial races than on the presidential level.

[QAnonKelly]

Gubernatorial races are least tied to party/ national environmental as a whole. Charlie Baker is the most popular Governor in the county as a Republican with approvals in the low 70s in a state in which only 10% of people are registered Republicans

[smoltchanov]

Gubernatorial races are least tied to party/ national environmental as a whole. Charlie Baker is the most popular Governor in the county as a Republican with approvals in the low 70s in a state in which only 10% of people are registered Republicans

Well, he is VERY different from Congressional Republicans. May be - that's the reason of his popularity?

[fluffypanther19]

Gubernatorial races are least tied to party/ national environmental as a whole. Charlie Baker is the most popular Governor in the county as a Republican with approvals in the low 70s in a state in which only 10% of people are registered Republicans

Well, he is VERY different from Congressional Republicans. May be - that's the reason of his popularity?

New England Republicans in general are a different beast than your traditional national Republican.

[catographer]

Frankly, all gubernatorial races are more competitive than the Presidential level. I think it's because state parties and state party brands are more fine-tuned to the constituencies and voters there; Republicans in Mass are much more liberal than those in Bama, for example.

Only 3 states have had only Democratic Governors since 2000: Washington, Oregon, and Delaware.
Only 8 states have had only Republican Governors since 2000: Texas, Florida, North & South Dakota, Nebraska, Utah, Idaho, Nevada.

All other states have had at least 1 Governor from each party since 2000.

In Presidential elections, all but 13 states have voted for only 1 party since 2000.

[smoltchanov]

Gubernatorial races are least tied to party/ national environmental as a whole. Charlie Baker is the most popular Governor in the county as a Republican with approvals in the low 70s in a state in which only 10% of people are registered Republicans

Well, he is VERY different from Congressional Republicans. May be - that's the reason of his popularity?

New England Republicans in general are a different beast than your traditional national Republican.

Less so, of late. Look at New England state legislatures - most Republicans there are more or less standard moderate conservatives or, sometimes, even "pure conservatives" (with exception of Connecticut, where substantial number of moderates still exist). Sometimes it puzzled me, that ACU frequently rates New England Republican legislators much higher then their Southerm brethern.

[un]

Oregon is usually blue. Usually. There can be the rare times when it's close, like in 2000 and 2004. It had a Republican senator during those years after all. This could be another one of those elections.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Oregon is usually blue. Usually. There can be the rare times when it's close, like in 2000 and 2004. It had a Republican senator during those years after all. This could be another one of those elections.

Oregon is not electing a Republican governor while Trump is the president, nor will it come close to doing so.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Right Third Parties cost the GOP big in 2002 and 2010 and handed the Democrats the win.


in 2014 the media not reporting on the depth of Kitzhaber scandal till after he won allowed him to win.

[Free Bird]

Same reason governor races in CT, MA, RI, IL, VT, IN, LA, NM, MD, NJ, and MT are competitive.

[Sir Mohamed]

Interestingly, the 1994 election was won by 9 points. Gubernatorial elections are often more about personality, see CA 2006, TN 2006 or AR 2010. MA is also a good example: a deep blue state who likes moderate GOP governors. CA for example also voted Democratic since 1992 in presidential contests, but had mostly a Republican governor since then.

[KingSweden]

Same reason governor races in CT, MA, RI, IL, VT, IN, LA, NM, MD, NJ, and MT are competitive.