Hungary parliamentary election April 8 2018

[Oryxslayer]

I think I call it quits (this will take a few more hours).

Here, everything would be 100% counted already and people could go to bed.

With 10% more turnout.

Austria-Hungary reformation when?

[rob in cal]

    When all the dust settles, lets see where the final official numbers fall in comparison with the polls that we've seen over the last months. Might give us some glimpse of the level of overall cheating/unfairness.

[SPQR]

I think I call it quits (this will take a few more hours).

Here, everything would be 100% counted already and people could go to bed.

With 10% more turnout.

didn't your country have to re-run an election recently because of incompetence?

[seb_pard]

Preliminary results delayed until 11 pm...

[seb_pard]

"For us, Hungary comes first"

[rob in cal]

   I think the Budapest district results are going to be really interesting. Lots of them were really close in 2014, and with possibly more tactical voting by left wing voters, plus some candidates standing down, should be some Fidesz seat losses there, maybe most of inner city districts, but with Fidesz holding the outlying areas.

[YPestis25]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/983073238833123329

[Meeker]

http://valasztas2018.nepszava.hu/

Currently showing 69% counted and Fidesz at 134 seats, one more than a 2/3 majority

[DavidB.]

That's quite a surprise.

[Helsinkian]

Just a friendly reminder to all: if you criticize Hungary's electoral system as undemocratic but have no problem with France's electoral system where Macron got 60% of the National Assembly seats with less than a third of the vote, you are a hypocrite.

[TheSaint250]

Ok, these results are fundamentally different from the estimates.

[SNJ1985]

Beautiful result and strong mandate for Fidesz, especially given the high turnout.

[DavidB.]

Fidesz percentage is slowly going down. With almost 85% counted, they're at 48.95% of the list PV and 133 seats. They might lose their 2/3 majority, because I think much of what's coming in right now is from Budapest. Still, a very strong showing regardless, stronger than expected in the days before the election.

Opposition parties winning only three FPTP seats out of Budapest (Jobbik 1, MSZP 1, Fügettlen 1 -- I assume the latter is an independent or something).

[SNJ1985]

Fidesz percentage is slowly going down. With almost 85% counted, they're at 48.95% of the list PV and 133 seats. They might lose their 2/3 majority, because I think much of what's coming in right now is from Budapest. Still, a stronger showing than expected in the days before the election.

Even if that happens, I would still consider it a great result due to the high turnout. The opposition underperformed.

[Sweet kiss of liquid modernity]

Opposition parties winning only three FPTP seats out of Budapest (Jobbik 1, MSZP 1, Fügettlen 1 -- I assume the latter is an independent or something).

The official results site (http://www.valasztas.hu/dyn/pv18/szavossz/hu/l50.html) shows MSZP 7, Fidesz 6, DK 3, LMP 1, Egyutt 1 in Budapest as far as FPTP seats go.

[YPestis25]

Terrible terrible night. Hopefully they slip back below 133 seats, which would be the only silver lining.

The OSCE press conference will be interesting to say the least.

[DavidB.]

The center-left opposition had probably won Budapest-2, Budapest-3, Budapest-4, Budapest-13 and Budapest-14 had the LMP FPTP candidate stood down and endorsed a DK/MSZP/Együtt candidate: all incredibly close races where the LMP got between 5% and 10%. And if in Budapest-6, the Budapest district Fidesz won by the biggest margin, the Együtt and LMP candidates had both stood down for the DK candidate, Fidesz might not have won a single FPTP seat in Budapest. This could easily make the difference for a 2/3 majority.

[TheSaint250]

Vona has resigned as leader of Jobbik.

[rob in cal]

  David, Budapest 15 and 17, and Pest 2 show what happens with a united left. Two victories and one narrow loss. Budapest could have been clean sweep or close to it. And its not as if this is a surprise, what a missed opportunity for the anti-Orban forces.

[Sweet kiss of liquid modernity]

  David, Budapest 15 and 17, and Pest 2 show what happens with a united left. Two victories and one narrow loss. Budapest could have been clean sweep or close to it. And its not as if this is a surprise, what a missed opportunity for the anti-Orban forces.

Pest 2 is still possible, Bernadett Szél is only 300 votes behind and 15% of the vote is still yet to come in.

[DavidB.]

With 97% counted, Fidesz still have 133 seats, though their PV % has gone down further to 48.45%. In Pest-2, 96% is in and the Fidesz candidate is still ahead by 0.8%.

[seb_pard]

https://twitter.com/balazscseko/status/983084778659438592

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the ballot-stuffing probably did happen. Hungary is officially an authoritarian regime.

[DavidB.]

So the ballot-stuffing probably did happen.

No evidence for this yet, though I share some of your suspicion. But it is not at all unlikely that pollsters simply underestimated the extent to which people were willing to get out and vote for Fidesz. Until e-day there were many people who refused to say whom they were going to vote for. I think we know the answer by now.

[rob in cal]

  Ballot stuffing, corruption, vote buying or not, this result still falls somewhere around the range predicted, and the close marginal seats that I have been posting about (my Budapest "world capital of marginal seats" obsession) came through pretty marginal in the final results. Basically we knew on this thread, and the Hungarian electorate knew as well what the marginal seats were, and the final results matched this.
  Also, if DK could fall just under 5% that would be nice for Fidesz, and instead they didn't, finishing just above, and the likelihood that DK might be in trouble to reach 5% was known (and posted about on this thread days ago), so again the results aren't a big surprise.  This is not to argue that there might not have been cheating/fraud etc. but the results fall in the margin of the expected.