Hungary parliamentary election April 8 2018

[rob in cal]

  Couldn't find a thread about this so thought we should start one.  I'm most intrigued whether the opposition forces will be able (is there still time?) to unite behind one candidate in the first past the post district seats, and whether such an alliance would include Jobbik.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Fidesz will win a supermajority

[SPQR]

  Couldn't find a thread about this so thought we should start one.  I'm most intrigued whether the opposition forces will be able (is there still time?) to unite behind one candidate in the first past the post district seats, and whether such an alliance would include Jobbik.

Two stupid questions:
A) How does the Hungarian system work?
B) Why would anyone on the world apart from fascists join forces with Jobbik?

[Mazda]

  Couldn't find a thread about this so thought we should start one.  I'm most intrigued whether the opposition forces will be able (is there still time?) to unite behind one candidate in the first past the post district seats, and whether such an alliance would include Jobbik.

Two stupid questions:
A) How does the Hungarian system work?
B) Why would anyone on the world apart from fascists join forces with Jobbik?

It's a parallel system, so there's 106 first past the post seats and 93 PR seats, but the results of one do not affect the results of the other. In other words, it isn't compensatory. In terms of the FPTP seats, last time Fidesz won 96 out of 106 - as they also won about a third of the PR seats, this gave them a supermajority from 44% of the vote.

So if the centre-left and liberals work with Jobbik, there's a chance that they could take enough FPTP seats off Fidesz to prevent Orban from altering the Constitution at will. That's the main attraction of working with them, although as Jobbik are basically an extension of Fidesz at this point, it seems like a waste of time.

The other pertinent factor in the electoral system is the threshold, which is 5% for parties running alone, 10% for coalitions consisting of two parties, and 15% for coalitions consisting of three or more parties. In their infinite wisdom, MSZP have created a coalition of three parties. These parties have, together, polled in excess of 15% in a grand total of 3 out of the 17 polls conducted so far this year, so there's a chance that they won't make it in, thus joining the Polish SLD in the "Why the hell didn't you just run alone you utter fools?" corner of European social democracy.

[Unironic Kamala Harris for President Supporter]

Fidesz will win a supermajority

[Former President tack50]

  Couldn't find a thread about this so thought we should start one.  I'm most intrigued whether the opposition forces will be able (is there still time?) to unite behind one candidate in the first past the post district seats, and whether such an alliance would include Jobbik.

Two stupid questions:
A) How does the Hungarian system work?
B) Why would anyone on the world apart from fascists join forces with Jobbik?

It's a parallel system, so there's 106 first past the post seats and 93 PR seats, but the results of one do not affect the results of the other. In other words, it isn't compensatory. In terms of the FPTP seats, last time Fidesz won 96 out of 106 - as they also won about a third of the PR seats, this gave them a supermajority from 44% of the vote.

So if the centre-left and liberals work with Jobbik, there's a chance that they could take enough FPTP seats off Fidesz to prevent Orban from altering the Constitution at will. That's the main attraction of working with them, although as Jobbik are basically an extension of Fidesz at this point, it seems like a waste of time.

The other pertinent factor in the electoral system is the threshold, which is 5% for parties running alone, 10% for coalitions consisting of two parties, and 15% for coalitions consisting of three or more parties. In their infinite wisdom, MSZP have created a coalition of three parties. These parties have, together, polled in excess of 15% in a grand total of 3 out of the 17 polls conducted so far this year, so there's a chance that they won't make it in, thus joining the Polish SLD in the "Why the hell didn't you just run alone you utter fools?" corner of European social democracy.

Why do Polish and Hungarian social democrats like shooting themselves in the foot so much? Even if you want a coalition, wouldn't it be better to just fuse all involved parties into one? (and split later)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

fwiw Jobbik are trying to follow the likes of the Slovak National Party and Front National by beginning to "moderate" and ditch the Nazi/irredentist/Anti-Semitic stuff.

[King of Kensington]

So if the centre-left and liberals work with Jobbik

What a depressing state of affairs.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

  Couldn't find a thread about this so thought we should start one.  I'm most intrigued whether the opposition forces will be able (is there still time?) to unite behind one candidate in the first past the post district seats, and whether such an alliance would include Jobbik.

Two stupid questions:
A) How does the Hungarian system work?
B) Why would anyone on the world apart from fascists join forces with Jobbik?

It's a parallel system, so there's 106 first past the post seats and 93 PR seats, but the results of one do not affect the results of the other. In other words, it isn't compensatory. In terms of the FPTP seats, last time Fidesz won 96 out of 106 - as they also won about a third of the PR seats, this gave them a supermajority from 44% of the vote.

So if the centre-left and liberals work with Jobbik, there's a chance that they could take enough FPTP seats off Fidesz to prevent Orban from altering the Constitution at will. That's the main attraction of working with them, although as Jobbik are basically an extension of Fidesz at this point, it seems like a waste of time.

The other pertinent factor in the electoral system is the threshold, which is 5% for parties running alone, 10% for coalitions consisting of two parties, and 15% for coalitions consisting of three or more parties. In their infinite wisdom, MSZP have created a coalition of three parties. These parties have, together, polled in excess of 15% in a grand total of 3 out of the 17 polls conducted so far this year, so there's a chance that they won't make it in, thus joining the Polish SLD in the "Why the hell didn't you just run alone you utter fools?" corner of European social democracy.

Why do Polish and Hungarian social democrats like shooting themselves in the foot so much? Even if you want a coalition, wouldn't it be better to just fuse all involved parties into one? (and split later)

It didn't help them that much in 2014, Unity+LMP got 31% of the votes combined against Fidesz' 45%

[Dr. MB]

This election is only slightly more competitive than Russia's.

[DavidB.]

Fidesz will win a supermajority

They probably won't. But they'll win another majority.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why do Polish and Hungarian social democrats like shooting themselves in the foot so much? Even if you want a coalition, wouldn't it be better to just fuse all involved parties into one? (and split later)

Money and ambitions. Politics is not about principles and making good decisions. In the coalition deal in 2015 they agreed to divide government subsidies for political parties which they got after the elections. SLD got 70%, TR 20%, UP 8% and Greens got 2% (2 % is 123 395 zł and for such party this is decent amount of money). If they would participate in the elections only as a SLD only SLD got money in such scenario. And really non-existent Twój Ruch got million zlotys yearly. Nice way to siphon some money from government budget.

[freek]

  Couldn't find a thread about this so thought we should start one.  I'm most intrigued whether the opposition forces will be able (is there still time?) to unite behind one candidate in the first past the post district seats, and whether such an alliance would include Jobbik.

Two stupid questions:
A) How does the Hungarian system work?
B) Why would anyone on the world apart from fascists join forces with Jobbik?

It's a parallel system, so there's 106 first past the post seats and 93 PR seats, but the results of one do not affect the results of the other. In other words, it isn't compensatory. In terms of the FPTP seats, last time Fidesz won 96 out of 106 - as they also won about a third of the PR seats, this gave them a supermajority from 44% of the vote.

It is not completely parallel. 'Surplus votes' from the FPTP seats are added to the party list vote totals.



Source: Hungarian National Election Office

[DavidB.]

This article on the Hungarian electoral system was interesting to me.

[DavidB.]

Ummmm.
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/974320174131306496

[parochial boy]

This is the world in 2018 folks, Jesus Christ.

Is this guy's party going to get thrown out of EPP at the very least?

[Strudelcutie4427]

This is the world in 2018 folks, Jesus Christ.

Is this guy's party going to get thrown out of EPP at the very least?

Long live Orban. I love the dude

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

This is the world in 2018 folks, Jesus Christ.

Is this guy's party going to get thrown out of EPP at the very least?

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[DavidB.]

This is the world in 2018 folks, Jesus Christ.

Is this guy's party going to get thrown out of EPP at the very least?

Long live Orban. I love the dude

Because antisemitic speeches are cool?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Literally finishing his campaign by screaming JEWS JEWS JEWS JEWS JEWS JEWS JEWS JEWS at a rally. And he's going to win at a canter. Pass the cyanide.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Literally finishing his campaign by screaming JEWS JEWS JEWS JEWS JEWS JEWS JEWS JEWS at a rally. And he's going to win at a canter. Pass the cyanide.

The only thing that really needs to be said is that Jobbik are now trying to position themselves as the moderate anti-Orbán right, and it's somehow not an entirely ridiculous thing for them to do anymore.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, MUH SOROS is a thing outside of the US? Really?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Wait, MUH SOROS is a thing outside of the US? Really?

While my home region would probably be a nicer place if America had a monopoly on antisemitism, the fact is that if anything, Orbán was the one who made MUH SOROS specifically the worldwide mainstream right-wing meme it is now in the first place.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Wait, MUH SOROS is a thing outside of the US? Really?

While my home region would be a nicer place if America had a monopoly on antisemitism, the fact is that if anything, Orbán was the one who made MUH SOROS a worldwide mainstream right-wing meme in the first place.

I mean of course I know antisemitism is a thing everywhere and especially in Eastern Europe, I just didn't know Soros specifically was a trope there. I haven't heard French and Italian antisemites bring him up.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Wait, MUH SOROS is a thing outside of the US? Really?

While my home region would be a nicer place if America had a monopoly on antisemitism, the fact is that if anything, Orbán was the one who made MUH SOROS a worldwide mainstream right-wing meme in the first place.

I mean of course I know antisemitism is a thing everywhere and especially in Eastern Europe, I just didn't know Soros specifically was a trope there. I haven't heard French and Italian antisemites bring him up.

What you're not taking into account is that Soros is literally from Budapest.