Hungary parliamentary election April 8 2018

[rob in cal]

  Another issue that might come up is that DK is polling right on the 5% threshold, and this combined with the votes for smaller groups like Egyutt might mean that anti-Orban parties end up losing seats due to the threshold.

[rob in cal]

Anybody remember from 2014 what time results start coming in?

[Tender Branson]

Turnout up significantly so far ... until 7am:

2.24% have voted

Compared with other years:



But a meaningful trend won't appear until 1pm of course ...

[Tender Branson]

According to Hungarian polls, there's a HUGE age gap when it comes to voter preference:

Among young voters, 80% (!) support either Orban's FIDESZ or Jobbik.

Among older voters (65+), 55% support Fidesz+Jobbik - but 45% support center-left parties.

Which probably means that if turnout is higher today (70% or something), this could boost Fidesz and Jobbik (because younger voters are always less likely to vote than olds).

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for today:

49% Fidesz
19% Jobbik
32% Various center-left/liberal/green/satire parties

Fidesz wins a huge majority of seats.

[Mazda]

Well, LMP and DK should both cross the threshold, but I wouldn't be surprised if either or both of them won more seats than the MSZP coalition.

Let's be honest, the highest aim of what we laughingly call the Hungarian opposition is to deny Fidesz an automatic supermajority.

[Tender Branson]

9am turnout remains higher than in all previous elections:

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Turnout not seen since late 90's, astonishing.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Is there decent English-language live coverage anywhere?

[Tender Branson]

11am turnout by region:



But the 1pm numbers will be better to see if there's a trend towards significantly higher turnout.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout not seen since late 90's, astonishing.

Not that surprising:

In most EU elections recently, turnout increased (except in France and Italy).

This has to do with the migrant situation in the West i guess and because people get wealthier in the East and are therefore more likely to participate in the democratic process than before.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Turnout not seen since late 90's, astonishing.

In most EU elections recently, turnout increased (except in France and Italy).

But usually increase in turnout was not that huge.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Turnout not seen since late 90's, astonishing.

In most EU elections recently, turnout increased (except in France and Italy).

But usually increase in turnout was not that huge.

Remember Poland 2007? This looks like it might be the Hungarian equivalent, except it's not clear which side the turnout boost is coming from yet.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Turnout not seen since late 90's, astonishing.

In most EU elections recently, turnout increased (except in France and Italy).

But usually increase in turnout was not that huge.

Remember Poland 2007? This looks like it might be the Hungarian equivalent, except it's not clear which side the turnout boost is coming from yet.

Ehhh, good old times. In 2007 cities were stronghold of higher turnout, as for now this is not the case of Hungary although big cities usually votes later than rural areas in this part of Europe so probably we should wait until 17:30.

[Tender Branson]

The 1pm numbers are out and there's definitely a trend towards higher turnout (+8% compared with 2014 and the highest in any election so far):



Turnout could reach 70-72% at the end of the day, if trends continue.

[Tender Branson]

1pm turnout by district:



Budapest and suburbs stick out + the area around Rözke in the south-east on the border to Serbia, where the migrants streamed into the country until the border fence was built.

[TheSaint250]

Prediction

Fidesz/KDNP: 46.0%
Jobbik: 19.5%
MSZP: 14.5%
LMP: 8.0%
DK: 6.0%
Other: 6.0%

[DavidB.]

53.6% turnout at 15:00, still higher than in any other general election from 2002 onward.

[Tender Branson]

53.6% turnout at 15:00, still higher than in any other general election from 2002 onward.

Chart:



Still heading towards 71-73% at the end of the day.

By district:



Turnout is now strongest in Budapest + suburbs and along the Austrian border (west) and Slovakia (north) and at the border crossing to Serbia (south east).

[Former President tack50]

I remember hearing that there was one poll that claimed that if turnout was exceptionally high, there was a small chance of Fidesz actually losing its majority. Is that true or is Orban guaranteed to get a majority no matter what?

Also, when do polls close?

[YPestis25]

Turnout at 5:00 was sitting at 63.21%.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 5:00 was sitting at 63.21%.

This is not comparable with previous elections though, because it was measured at 17:30 in those.

But it's still on track for 70-71%.

[Tender Branson]

I remember hearing that there was one poll that claimed that if turnout was exceptionally high, there was a small chance of Fidesz actually losing its majority. Is that true or is Orban guaranteed to get a majority no matter what?

Also, when do polls close?

19:00

[YPestis25]

Turnout at 5:00 was sitting at 63.21%.

This is not comparable with previous elections though, because it was measured at 17:30 in those.

But it's still on track for 70-71%.

Europe Elects actually gave the turnout figures for some past elections at 5:00.

2002: 62.80%
2010: 54.42%
2014: 56.78%

So it's still a hair above 2002.

[DavidB.]

70% turnout in a general election would be amazing for a country in post-Communist Europe and even very decent by European standards: better than the UK and Ireland, on par with Finland, close to Italy.