How would a Mitt Romney gop primary challenge fare against Trump?

[jman123]

How would Mitt Romney fare if he challenged Trump in 2020 GOP primary.

[Dr. MB]

He'd win Utah, DC, Puerto Rico, and some northeastern states.

[Anna Komnene]

Trump would write an angry tweet and then Romney would drop out and kiss his ass and grovel until Trump decided to forget he exists again.

[UncleSam]

Badly

[HAnnA MArin County]

The deplorables would eviscerate Willard. Of course he’d win Utah and Idaho and other Mormon-heavy states in the Mountain West, but would be crushed everywhere else.

[DabbingSanta]

Badly

[Progressive Pessimist]

He would win Utah and that's pretty much it.

[Joey1996]

Badly.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

At absolute best, he wins Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Virginia, Maryland, DC and Puerto Rico.

[Canis]

At absolute best, he wins Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Virginia, Maryland, DC and Puerto Rico.

+ Minnesota

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

At absolute best, he wins Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Virginia, Maryland, DC and Puerto Rico.

+ Minnesota

Romney has a long history of doing well in caucus states. In 2008 most of the states he won were in caucus states, but he was the only one who contested many of them.

Of course Trump has a terrible record in caucuses.

[Mr. Morden]

At absolute best, he wins Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Virginia, Maryland, DC and Puerto Rico.

+ Minnesota

Romney has a long history of doing well in caucus states. In 2008 most of the states he won were in caucus states, but he was the only one who contested many of them.

Of course Trump has a terrible record in caucuses.

Well, Minnesota will be a primary rather than a caucus in 2020:

https://www.twincities.com/2016/05/22/minnesota-moves-to-presidential-primary/

Also, it's possible that several of the caucus states will not even bother to have presidential votes in 2020, and just have delegates selected by state party leaders:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=286279.0

[MillennialModerate]

Unfortunately he wouldn’t fare too well. Even though he is an honorable man with integrity who would likely be a good President, I think the Alt-Right base adores it’s Trump immaturity, Prejudice deamoging and pathetic paranoid conspiracy theories. Thus a good and decent man like Romney who would do what is best for the nation even if it involves working with Democrats - would be shunned by the wingnuts. Romney would become a forced foil for the alt-right, being labeled an “elitist” member of the “deep state establishment and there would be enough gullible suckers to buy it and drink the trump kool aid.

[Mr. Morden]

I really think people here overestimate how loyal voters are. I speak to people daily who were strong Trump supporters in the 2016 primary and now regret choosing him and will vote for the Democrat in 2020. The question is whether soft-Trump voters who might flip to a primary challenger are outweighed by the strong-Romney folks who have left the party and won't return.

I think a primary challenger getting more than 20% of the national vote, a la Buchanan '92, is not necessarily that difficult to imagine.  I mean, Trump's job approval rating among Republicans isn't that much higher than 80% right now (and it's always possible that it'll get a bit worse):

link

So that's a base in the high teens for any primary challenger.  And then figure that even among those who approve of the job he's doing, there are going to be some who would prefer a more conventional Republican politician.

But that still doesn't get you anywhere close to a majority.  Doing that much better than Buchanan '92, winning anything more than maybe DC, Puerto Rico, and Utah, is going to be *really* hard for any challenger.

And I don't think this is really intrinsic to Trump, that he has some sort of unique hold over the GOP electorate.  It's just that he's the incumbent Republican president, so a majority of the party's voters are likely to back him over anyone.  Same would be true if the incumbent president was Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio.  It would be almost impossible for anyone to defeat them in a primary either.

[Fuzzy Bear]

He could do as well as Ted Kennedy did in 1980 against Carter.

He would NOT win the nomination.  He WOULD be the reason Trump lost re-election. 

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

He could do as well as Ted Kennedy did in 1980 against Carter.

He would NOT win the nomination.  He WOULD be the reason Trump lost re-election.  

LOL. Trump has much bigger electoral problems than whatever delusional rINO clown decides to run against him in the primary

Fuzzy Bear is delusional and thinks Trump is some godly candidate even though he only had a 50% approval rating in PA-18 (a district he won by 20 in 2016).

He thinks that Trump is the only reason Republicans won in 2016 even though the average generic Republican outpaced Trump and Hillary had a 42% favorable rating.

Like I don't even know how delusional you have to be to think Trump is popular at all. Everyone hates him. He's not even super popular in rural Georgia.

Note how Karen Handel had the best Republican performance in 2017, and she mostly tried to keep her distance away from Trump (because he is incredibly toxic and unliked).

I can't wait for Fuzzy Bear to say in 2021 how he never really liked Trump anyways after Trump goes down in flames.

[Mr. Morden]

He would NOT win the nomination.  He WOULD be the reason Trump lost re-election. 

I don't think a primary challenge, particularly an "establishment" primary challenge like Romney, is actually going to hurt Trump in the general election.  Voters don't care if the party's elites are divided.  I mean, a fifth of the GOP caucus in the Senate in 2016 wouldn't even endorse Trump in the general election, and it didn't matter.  He won anyway.  It's even possible that such things might have a mildly positive impact on him, because it could energize his supporters if they have more evidence to suggest that "elites" are out to get him, and he hasn't been coopted by the establishment.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

At absolute best, he wins Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Virginia, Maryland, DC and Puerto Rico.

+ Minnesota

Romney has a long history of doing well in caucus states. In 2008 most of the states he won were in caucus states, but he was the only one who contested many of them.

Of course Trump has a terrible record in caucuses.

Wow, I hadn't noticed that before.  Looking back, I'm surprised that the more active GOP voters fell more in line with Romney than Huckabee.  From what I recall it was McCain and Romney who were viewed as unacceptable to most of the net/grassroots Pubs, while Huckabee was/is arguably closest to the typical GOP voter ideologically.  What was so appealing to Republican caucus-goers about a rich, uncharismatic, Northeastern governor from one of the most liberal states in the country?

Had national security and the wars not been the top issues on people's minds at the time of the primaries, McCain almost certainly would have lost.

[Mr. Morden]

At absolute best, he wins Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Virginia, Maryland, DC and Puerto Rico.

+ Minnesota

Romney has a long history of doing well in caucus states. In 2008 most of the states he won were in caucus states, but he was the only one who contested many of them.

Of course Trump has a terrible record in caucuses.

Wow, I hadn't noticed that before.  Looking back, I'm surprised that the more active GOP voters fell more in line with Romney than Huckabee.  From what I recall it was McCain and Romney who were viewed as unacceptable to most of the net/grassroots Pubs, while Huckabee was/is arguably closest to the typical GOP voter ideologically.  What was so appealing to Republican caucus-goers about a rich, uncharismatic, Northeastern governor from one of the most liberal states in the country?

Romney had the best and most sophisticated organization, and organization mattered in low turnout caucuses.

Also, it's been a while so I don't remember the details anymore, but I think Huckabee was viewed by some as being too heterodox on economic issues.  He was the identity politics candidate for Evangelicals, and so pretty far right on social issues, but not trusted by Movement Conservatives on economic issues.  Therefore, conservative talk radio, like Rush Limbaugh and others, were suspicious of him.  All three of the top candidates from that year were seen as flawed from a conservative perspective, which is part of why McCain was able to win.

[christian peralta]

He will win Utah, Utah......and Utah




And Idaho

And that's all

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Romney was scared of by Jeb!

[Grassroots]

He probably wont run, he would have been a senator for only a year at that time.

But if he runs, he will probably win the mountain west and northeast. Not much else.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Alaska, Vermont, Maryland, Virginia, New Mexico, Hawaii and Wisconsin could go to Romney.

[twenty42]

It would make him look like a bitter old fool. Probably better for his legacy to end his presidential ambitions with a 4-point loss in a general election rather than a 93-7 drubbing in IA.