Opinion of this Senate map.

[°Leprechaun]

[Xing]

Why is Tennessee light blue? Anyway this map is certainly possible, but not particularly probable, since my hunch is that at least one Democrat will go down.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

FF map. Only thing that could make it better is Methmouth Marsha losing.

I don't like these attacks on Marsha's "mouth". Her policies are pretty out there, but we should stick to showing how the excellent governor with proven executive experience is a far better choice.

[°Leprechaun]

Why is Tennessee light blue? Anyway this map is certainly possible, but not particularly probable, since my hunch is that at least one Democrat will go down.

TN is rated a tossup by one analyst but likely by the other two; see chart at bottom of this link:

https://www.270towin.com/news/2018/03/09/mississippi-special-election-added-senate-interactive-map-updating-battle-senate-control_596.html#.Wq04zMPwbIU

[Strudelcutie4427]

Arizona ain’t going dem. Nevada’s. Toss up. McCaskill is deader than a mosquito near bug zapper

[Rhenna]

Donnelly will lose and possibly Nelson. But other than that, I agree.

[Bidenworth2020]

Arizona ain’t going dem. Nevada’s. Toss up. McCaskill is deader than a mosquito near bug zapper

So you think AZ is gonna vote for either Arpaio(lmfao), chemtrail Kelli, or someone sick enough to want McCain to be dead in order to take the seat? Also, for NV, even if this was a LEAN R year NV would flip just based off of 2016. For McCaskill, have you ever heard of something called polls...

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Literally my prediction.

[Orser67]

So AZ and NV flip, and otherwise each party defends their own seats. I think that that is the single most likely map.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Conceivable, but definitely on the optimistic side.

[windjammer]

Conceivable, but definitely on the optimistic side.

Definitely this

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Probable best case scenario for Dems, give or take Tennessee.

[Ogre Mage]

I would consider a net gain of Dem +3 to be a realistic best-case scenario.  This is a more likely result and moderately optimistic instead of very optimistic. 

[Peanut]

Possible, and indeed the second most likely scenario, behind us losing Donnelly or McCaskill but winning NV and AZ.
Though, if an unpopular Dem is running for reelection in 2024 with this map we'd get slaughtered probably. Not so much if the Dem is popular or if Trump (hopefully not) wins reelection.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Possible, with a blue wave

[President Johnson]

Actually the most likely outcome at the moment if you ask me. Just too bad Tennessee and Texas didn't flip. But Dems would gain control with 51 seats.

[mcmikk]

Actually the most likely outcome at the moment if you ask me. Just too bad Tennessee and Texas didn't flip. But Dems would gain control with 51 seats.

Beto O'Rourke, Phil Bredesen and David Baria are the definition of making lemonade out of everything you can possibly squeeze out if the wave crests just high enough. Much like Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly in 2012 and Cory Gardner in 2014. The GOP pissed away their ability to completely ride the wave in 2010 though by nominating a witch, a weird cowboy who was drunk on tea and a lady who thought hispanics were Asians and wondered that thought aloud.

I still think O'Rourke, Bredesen and Baria will each need their opponents to say or do something stupid, though with the latter two, I think that's more likely to happen than not (assuming Baria faces McDaniel).

Who was the weird cowboy drunk on tea, Buck? Or am I forgetting one of the best characters?

[King Lear]

Arizona ain’t going dem. Nevada’s. Toss up. McCaskill is deader than a mosquito near bug zapper

Totally Agree.

[UncleSam]

This map is possible but very timing dependent. Perhaps the most frustrating thing about projecting elections is that almost invariably the last news cycle of the season will swing things one direction or the other (Hurricane Sandy in 2012, Comey letter in 2016, etc.). Midterms are maybe a bit less unpredictable due to not having as many low propensity / uninformed voters, but I still think that as of now Dems would lose 3 or even 4 net seats in the senate with the current climate. That being said, right months is a long time for Trump and GOP primary voters to work their magic and turn a very good dem year I to a colossal tidal wave, which is what this map would represent.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually the most likely outcome at the moment if you ask me. Just too bad Tennessee and Texas didn't flip. But Dems would gain control with 51 seats.

It might be the modal outcome, but not the median or the average outcome, because there's a lot more downside for Democrats than for Republicans.

[Sir Mohamed]

Possible, though I expect one Dem to lose, apparently McCaskill, leading to a 50-50 senate (Dem pick-ups in NV and AZ).

[MarkD]

Why is Tennessee light blue? Anyway this map is certainly possible, but not particularly probable, since my hunch is that at least one Democrat will go down.

This. I think it is extremely unlikely that no Democrats will lose. There are too many who are vulnerable -- Donnelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Tester, Manchin, Nelson, and Brown. With so many vulnerable at least one has got to lose.

[adrac]

Why is Tennessee light blue? Anyway this map is certainly possible, but not particularly probable, since my hunch is that at least one Democrat will go down.

This. I think it is extremely unlikely that no Democrats will lose. There are too many who are vulnerable -- Donnelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Tester, Manchin, Nelson, and Brown. With so many vulnerable at least one has got to lose.

While I agree that it is likely that at least one loses, I would be careful with that logic. Senate races aren't independent outcomes, as they are both heavily dependent on the national environment, so I think it's more likely that all of the vulnerable democrats win than you might think. This of course, swings the other way too, I think that if more than one or two incumbent democrats are losing than its probable that more of them will.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why is Tennessee light blue? Anyway this map is certainly possible, but not particularly probable, since my hunch is that at least one Democrat will go down.

This. I think it is extremely unlikely that no Democrats will lose. There are too many who are vulnerable -- Donnelly, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Tester, Manchin, Nelson, and Brown. With so many vulnerable at least one has got to lose.

The only Senate Democrats who are even remotely vulnerable in a general election vs Republicans are Tester, Heitkamp, and Manchin.