Which counties do you think are likely to flip in your state’s Senate race?

[MT Treasurer]

I’d say Yellowstone, Rosebud and Chouteau County flip from D to R even if Tester wins. I realize that this might sound too Republican-friendly, but I’d be surprised if he won by more than 5 or 6, honestly. As regards MT-AL, I don’t see any county flipping right now, but Cascade County could be fairly close.

Feel free to do other states as well if you want.

[Xing]

You mean from 2012? Whitman will almost certainly flip from R to D, and depending on how bad it gets for Republicans, Spokane and Walla Walla could flip as well. Klickitat and Yakima could conceivably flip from D to R, but I doubt it.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Calvert and Wicomico are a given.

[Strudelcutie4427]

No race here but I live in MA in the summer so maybe
Plymouth and Worcester

[Oryxslayer]

All of them. DvD

[Holmes]

All of them. DvD

Well, all the ones that voted Republican.

[Tekken_Guy]

Maybe this'll be the year Morris flips. On the other side, I can see Menendez losing Salem.

[jamestroll]

Even in a statewide victory... a lot.. lol!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

From 2012 to 2018.

I think Harris, Brewster, and Kennedy flip almost for sure. Fort Bend, Hays, and Nueces could, but I would not hold my breath.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maybe just Salem and Somerset. Salem used to be swingy but has kind of gone out of its way to be more Republican friendly lately, and not by the usual small margins. Meanwhile Somerset is the opposite but will probably still vote for Menendez. It could go back to its Republican roots though if Menendez proves himself to be unpopular enough though. I mean Murphy only barely won it while Clinton absolutely obliterated Trump. So it's hard to say.

[LimoLiberal]

Depends on the nominee. If it's Stewart, I expect Kaine to win Chesterfield, Stafford, Clarke, Accomack, King and Queen, James City, and maybe Spotsylvania. If black turnout is good (which a Stewart candidacy could ensure) Kaine could pick up some of the counties in southern VA with sizable black populations.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Depends on the nominee. If it's Stewart, I expect Kaine to win Chesterfield, Stafford, Clarke, Accomack, King and Queen, James City, and maybe Spotsylvania. If black turnout is good (which a Stewart candidacy could ensure) Kaine could pick up some of the counties in southern VA with sizable black populations.

I could see Stewart keeping it close in Prince William.

[LimoLiberal]

Depends on the nominee. If it's Stewart, I expect Kaine to win Chesterfield, Stafford, Clarke, Accomack, King and Queen, James City, and maybe Spotsylvania. If black turnout is good (which a Stewart candidacy could ensure) Kaine could pick up some of the counties in southern VA with sizable black populations.

I could see Stewart keeping it close in Prince William.

lol no
he'll maybe get Romney 2012 numbers there...

[MAINEiac4434]

The Independent will win all 16.

[KingSweden]

You mean from 2012? Whitman will almost certainly flip from R to D, and depending on how bad it gets for Republicans, Spokane and Walla Walla could flip as well. Klickitat and Yakima could conceivably flip from D to R, but I doubt it.

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP barely scrapes out in Benton and Franklin, for that matter.

[Seattle]

You mean from 2012? Whitman will almost certainly flip from R to D, and depending on how bad it gets for Republicans, Spokane and Walla Walla could flip as well. Klickitat and Yakima could conceivably flip from D to R, but I doubt it.

I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the GOP barely scrapes out in Benton and Franklin, for that matter.

I'd think Asotin (ancestral strength, she won it in 2006) and Kittitas (lost by 1.4%, CWU turn out should be high) would flip before those two.

I'd say Whitman and Spokane are all but guaranteed R to D flips. Cantwell only lost Spokane by 339 votes against local Baumgartner. Walla Walla would be next, it almost voted for Murray in 2016 (lost by 1.2%).

The key to holding Yakima (and over-performing to a lesser extent in Kittitas, Chelan, and Klickitat is to get the fruit grower/farmer (or whatever it's called) endorsement like she did in 2012.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

None. Illinois will vote exactly the way it did in its 2012 Senate election.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

A lot, especially if Corey Stewart is the GOP nominee. Certainly Nelson and Caroline, which were decided by less than 100 votes each in the Gubernatorial election, will flip.

[Del Tachi]

Too hard to handicap either of the MS contests because turnout dynamics will depend on the MS-Special election format.  Copiah, Yazoo and Jasper are possible D-to-R flips for Wicker though.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, if it's D vs D, every county will vote D again....

[Figueira]

A 14-county sweep for Warren seems more than likely. So, Worcester, Essex, Norfolk, Plymouth, and Barnstable would flip.

I could see Plymouth not flipping though.

[un]

It will probably stay the same, maybe one flips for or against Klobuchar, but she'll still get above 60% of the vote. In terms of the special, alot of them in the southern part of the state, but outside of that, probably not alot their either. The Democrat would win with about 52 to 54 percent.