Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 08, 2019, 01:21:38 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Endorsements Close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5  (Read 2317 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 737
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 21, 2018, 12:34:05 am »
« edited: March 21, 2018, 10:18:50 am by TheRocketRaccoon »

https://amp.tennessean.com/amp/443326002

Bredesen 46
Blackburn 41

Generic D 41
Generic R 51

Trump approval 54/42
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,670
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2018, 12:38:43 am »



But 46% might be about what Bredesen gets.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,090
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2018, 12:40:27 am »

I believe
Logged
Deranged California Suburbanite
Fubart Solman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,282
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2018, 01:27:52 am »

I believe in Harvey Dent the Blue Wave. 🌊
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,827
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2018, 02:52:44 am »

Push poll by pro-ACA group

Fake news
Logged
TheRocketRaccoon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 737
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2018, 03:16:26 am »

Push poll by pro-ACA group

Fake news

How can you tell this with no polling script?
Logged
Lean Branson
Doctor Imperialism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,036


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2018, 03:32:34 am »

Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,999
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2018, 05:50:00 am »

Lean R. Bayh was up by like 20 points several months before the election and many posters said that it would be best for the NRSC to triage the race. No, Iím not saying that 2018 will be as Republican-friendly a year as 2016 and Bredesen obviously shouldnít be underestimated, but I do think Blackburn is still the slight favorite here.
Logged
libertpaulian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2018, 06:35:06 am »

Lean R. Bayh was up by like 20 points several months before the election and many posters said that it would be best for the NRSC to triage the race. No, Iím not saying that 2018 will be as Republican-friendly a year as 2016 and Bredesen obviously shouldnít be underestimated, but I do think Blackburn is still the slight favorite here.
I agree, but I think Bayh is a poor comparison.  Bayh had a reputation as a Midwestern Blue Dog due to his tenure as Indiana Governor but had grown more liberal in the Senate over time.  Bredesen still has the advantage of keeping his Southern Blue Dog rep intact.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,404
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: 3.29, S: -1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2018, 06:52:58 am »

Lean R. Bayh was up by like 20 points several months before the election and many posters said that it would be best for the NRSC to triage the race. No, Iím not saying that 2018 will be as Republican-friendly a year as 2016 and Bredesen obviously shouldnít be underestimated, but I do think Blackburn is still the slight favorite here.

Their profiles are similar, but I think it depends on the quality of his campaign. Bayh's campaign was a disaster the minute it started and didn't get any better.
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,860
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2018, 07:03:10 am »

Lean R. Bayh was up by like 20 points several months before the election and many posters said that it would be best for the NRSC to triage the race. No, Iím not saying that 2018 will be as Republican-friendly a year as 2016 and Bredesen obviously shouldnít be underestimated, but I do think Blackburn is still the slight favorite here.
^^^^
Logged
Speaker OneJ
OneJ_
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,169
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2018, 07:20:12 am »

I don't see crosstabs, but at the very bottom of the page that the OP posted, 83 percent of respondents were white while 14 percent were black. Maybe blacks are slightly overrepresented or something else?
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,967


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2018, 07:52:05 am »

I seriously think Blackburnís gender is hurting, potentially fatally. This is helpful for Dems but ultimately terrible for democracy.
Logged
Andy Beshear Have My Babies
DTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,207


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2018, 07:58:09 am »

Push poll by pro-ACA group

Fake news

Trump's approval is 54-42 according to this poll.

It was only 50-44 in TN according to gallup, and I've seen a lot of polls where Trump is basically even in TN.

I don't think this is a push poll if Trump's approval is a lot higher than in other polls, lol.

Logged
Jeppe
Bosse
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,759
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2018, 08:58:45 am »

I seriously think Blackburnís gender is hurting, potentially fatally. This is helpful for Dems but ultimately terrible for democracy.

Democrat women have been doing pretty well in primaries, but Republican women havenít had the same luck. I donít think gender is hurting Blackburn, Deb Fischer easily won a race very similar to this one in 2012, in an even less red state.
Logged
Pollster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,291


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2018, 02:49:44 pm »

Important to note that Blackburn is barely within the MOE here. This is an incredibly tight race.
Logged
President Johnson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,382
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2018, 02:53:57 pm »

Freedom poll. Nevertheless, this is toss-up at very best, more likely "lean Republican".
Logged
RINO Tom
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,040
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2018, 02:57:42 pm »

Tennessee being competitive is a mainstay of any GOP doomsday scenario, LOL.  The fact that it's remotely close is embarrassing.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,967


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 21, 2018, 04:13:57 pm »

I seriously think Blackburnís gender is hurting, potentially fatally. This is helpful for Dems but ultimately terrible for democracy.

Democrat women have been doing pretty well in primaries, but Republican women havenít had the same luck. I donít think gender is hurting Blackburn, Deb Fischer easily won a race very similar to this one in 2012, in an even less red state.

My thesis is that itís regional to the southeast, where few women have emerged as conservative leaders (although we can all name those few) and where male conservative politicians are more likely to treat women as followers and second-class elected officials than equals. Bredesen has rare credibility as a Democrat to capitalize on this because of his track record.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC