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  TN-PPP: Bredesen +5
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Author Topic: TN-PPP: Bredesen +5  (Read 2353 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: March 21, 2018, 12:34:05 am »
« edited: March 21, 2018, 10:18:50 am by TheRocketRaccoon »

https://amp.tennessean.com/amp/443326002

Bredesen 46
Blackburn 41

Generic D 41
Generic R 51

Trump approval 54/42
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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2018, 12:38:43 am »



But 46% might be about what Bredesen gets.
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Mondale
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« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2018, 12:40:27 am »

I believe
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Fubart Solman 🥀
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« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2018, 01:27:52 am »

I believe in Harvey Dent the Blue Wave. 🌊
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Free Bird
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« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2018, 02:52:44 am »

Push poll by pro-ACA group

Fake news
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2018, 03:16:26 am »

Push poll by pro-ACA group

Fake news

How can you tell this with no polling script?
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2018, 03:32:34 am »

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2018, 05:50:00 am »

Lean R. Bayh was up by like 20 points several months before the election and many posters said that it would be best for the NRSC to triage the race. No, Iím not saying that 2018 will be as Republican-friendly a year as 2016 and Bredesen obviously shouldnít be underestimated, but I do think Blackburn is still the slight favorite here.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2018, 06:35:06 am »

Lean R. Bayh was up by like 20 points several months before the election and many posters said that it would be best for the NRSC to triage the race. No, Iím not saying that 2018 will be as Republican-friendly a year as 2016 and Bredesen obviously shouldnít be underestimated, but I do think Blackburn is still the slight favorite here.
I agree, but I think Bayh is a poor comparison.  Bayh had a reputation as a Midwestern Blue Dog due to his tenure as Indiana Governor but had grown more liberal in the Senate over time.  Bredesen still has the advantage of keeping his Southern Blue Dog rep intact.
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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2018, 06:52:58 am »

Lean R. Bayh was up by like 20 points several months before the election and many posters said that it would be best for the NRSC to triage the race. No, Iím not saying that 2018 will be as Republican-friendly a year as 2016 and Bredesen obviously shouldnít be underestimated, but I do think Blackburn is still the slight favorite here.

Their profiles are similar, but I think it depends on the quality of his campaign. Bayh's campaign was a disaster the minute it started and didn't get any better.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2018, 07:03:10 am »

Lean R. Bayh was up by like 20 points several months before the election and many posters said that it would be best for the NRSC to triage the race. No, Iím not saying that 2018 will be as Republican-friendly a year as 2016 and Bredesen obviously shouldnít be underestimated, but I do think Blackburn is still the slight favorite here.
^^^^
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Speaker OneJ
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« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2018, 07:20:12 am »

I don't see crosstabs, but at the very bottom of the page that the OP posted, 83 percent of respondents were white while 14 percent were black. Maybe blacks are slightly overrepresented or something else?
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Brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2018, 07:52:05 am »

I seriously think Blackburnís gender is hurting, potentially fatally. This is helpful for Dems but ultimately terrible for democracy.
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DTC
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« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2018, 07:58:09 am »

Push poll by pro-ACA group

Fake news

Trump's approval is 54-42 according to this poll.

It was only 50-44 in TN according to gallup, and I've seen a lot of polls where Trump is basically even in TN.

I don't think this is a push poll if Trump's approval is a lot higher than in other polls, lol.

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Jeppe
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« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2018, 08:58:45 am »

I seriously think Blackburnís gender is hurting, potentially fatally. This is helpful for Dems but ultimately terrible for democracy.

Democrat women have been doing pretty well in primaries, but Republican women havenít had the same luck. I donít think gender is hurting Blackburn, Deb Fischer easily won a race very similar to this one in 2012, in an even less red state.
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Pollster
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« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2018, 02:49:44 pm »

Important to note that Blackburn is barely within the MOE here. This is an incredibly tight race.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2018, 02:53:57 pm »

Freedom poll. Nevertheless, this is toss-up at very best, more likely "lean Republican".
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2018, 02:57:42 pm »

Tennessee being competitive is a mainstay of any GOP doomsday scenario, LOL.  The fact that it's remotely close is embarrassing.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #18 on: March 21, 2018, 04:13:57 pm »

I seriously think Blackburnís gender is hurting, potentially fatally. This is helpful for Dems but ultimately terrible for democracy.

Democrat women have been doing pretty well in primaries, but Republican women havenít had the same luck. I donít think gender is hurting Blackburn, Deb Fischer easily won a race very similar to this one in 2012, in an even less red state.

My thesis is that itís regional to the southeast, where few women have emerged as conservative leaders (although we can all name those few) and where male conservative politicians are more likely to treat women as followers and second-class elected officials than equals. Bredesen has rare credibility as a Democrat to capitalize on this because of his track record.
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