Phil Bredesen leads in PPP poll 46-41.

[DemocraticKing]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/2018/03/21/tn-politics-senate-2018-bredesen-blackburn-ppp-poll-trump-aca-obamacare/443326002/

Looking good in the Volunteer State.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I don't exactly see him winning, but in a wave year he could slip by.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Very good!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FWIW, paid for by a pro-obamacare group

[AtorBoltox]

Lean D

[Dr. MB]

Tilt R->Tossup

[YE]

Lean R.

[Bidenworth2020]

just for the record, TN polls OVERWHELMINGLY estimate dems. Just as a few examples, they underestimated Haslam by 21 and Trump by 16.

[YE]

just for the record, TN polls OVERWHELMINGLY estimate dems. Just as a few examples, they underestimated Haslam by 21 and Trump by 16.

This plus the fact that retreads tend to do well in early polling.

[NOVA Green]

FWIW, paid for by a pro-obamacare group

Still, it must be said that the overwhelmingly Republican suburbs of the large Metro areas in Tennessee swung heavily Romney '12 > HRC '16....

Although I won't believe it until I see it, it is not hard to envision a quasi PA CD-18 / Alabama Sen '16 scenario happening in the Great State of Tennessee considering the current National political environment.

We did see some pretty insane swings in the suburbs of Memphis and Nashville between '12 and '16 (+20% D in many places) that were unusual in most of the "South" outside of suburban areas in Houston and DFW....

It wouldn't be that crazy to think of a combination of large Dem turnout in the cities, plus massive midterm swings in the Upper-Income Anglo Metro 'Burbs, plus throw in a decent chunk of Ancestral Dems that might have voted for Gore in '00 and Dems for Gov/Sen later on to make this race closer to a toss-up than a route under the optimal conditions.

Not smoking the pipe quite yet, but Anglos in TN tend to vote a bit different than in most of the States of the Old Confederacy, and in a "Wave Election" this could be one of those random pickups that happens as a result of an Alabama style result of depressed 'Pub turnout, massive Dem turnout, combined with massive swings among Anglo voters, especially around Metro Areas and Ancestral White Democratic parts of Tennessee....

Hey--- plenty of time. Maybe Trump should go on the stump in Tennessee and let's see how that works out?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.msg5555341#msg5555341

[new_patomic]

Tennessee should obviously be on the map for Senate Democrats. Maybe not as something that we'll for sure invest in come the fall, but neither something to ignore like its Wyoming.  

Seems at this point a more plausible gain than Texas, at least.

[windjammer]

Not going to happen!

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, this isn't gonna last.  This is kind of like those early polls that showed Linda Lingle close in the 2012 Hawaii Senate race.

[BuckeyeNut]

I am skeptical of retreads, but why did Bayh and Strickland fail?

Strickland, despite keeing Ohio very close in 2010, did lose re-election, allowing Kasich to set a very negative narrative for the Strickland years and paint a picture of turning the state around. Portman leaned into this heavily, to his great benefit, and it seems like Strickland may not have been entirely with it during his campaign. He also went off to DC to work for CAP in the interim, which did him no favors.

Bayh, was worse in basically every way. He didn’t just go off to DC for a few years, he had basically no remaining ties to the state of Indiana after an extensive lobbying career, and only came back to run when it looked like environment was favorable. And this was after a decision to just up and leave in ‘10, taking the cowards way out. In doing so, he managed to piss off Democrats who had worked hard for Hill up to that point.

Bredesen, unlike Strickland, left office quite popular, and unlike Bayh, he’s remained in the state and isn’t a hugely transparent opportunist. I still doubt he wins, but he has a real shot.

[KingSweden]

A promising start

[Gass3268]

I am skeptical of retreads, but why did Bayh and Strickland fail?

Strickland, despite keeing Ohio very close in 2010, did lose re-election, allowing Kasich to set a very negative narrative for the Strickland years and paint a picture of turning the state around. Portman leaned into this heavily, to his great benefit, and it seems like Strickland may not have been entirely with it during his campaign. He also went off to DC to work for CAP in the interim, which did him no favors.

Bayh, was worse in basically every way. He didn’t just go off to DC for a few years, he had basically no remaining ties to the state of Indiana after an extensive lobbying career, and only came back to run when it looked like environment was favorable. And this was after a decision to just up and leave in ‘10, taking the cowards way out. In doing so, he managed to piss off Democrats who had worked hard for Hill up to that point.

Bredesen, unlike Strickland, left office quite popular, and unlike Bayh, he’s remained in the state and isn’t a hugely transparent opportunist. I still doubt he wins, but he has a real shot.

Since leaving office, Bredesen has been working for a local solar energy company out of Nashville. There are a lot worse things you can do after leaving office.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

After Alabama and Pennsylvania, Bredesen has a chance.

[Orser67]

Not bad for 8 months before the election, though I still think this is a Lean R race

[here2view]

Lean R.

[ON Progressive]

Tilt R.

[TDAS04]

Tossup.

[Sestak]

Lean R. Definitely an easier pickup than Texas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lean R. Definitely an easier pickup than Texas.

[Bidenworth2020]

just for the record, TN polls OVERWHELMINGLY estimate dems. Just as a few examples, they underestimated Haslam by 21 and Trump by 16.

Seems like cherry-picking to me. I think those were Vanderbilt polls in particular

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Tennessee,_2012#Polling_2

no, it is not. Actually, you are the one who is cherrypicking, because only one poll came out on that race more than a year out. I can keep going, such as when Alexander overperformed polls by 12, Haslam overperformed by 7 in 2010, TN-08 by 12, etc etc

[Bidenworth2020]

one thing that looks good for Bredi is he overperformed the polls by 10 in 2006...