Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 20, 2019, 07:57:31 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AZ-SEN PPP: Sinema +5
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: AZ-SEN PPP: Sinema +5  (Read 2905 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 728
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 21, 2018, 09:38:55 am »
« edited: March 21, 2018, 10:17:34 am by TheRocketRaccoon »

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Battleground-Health-Care-Memo.pdf

Sinema 46
McSally 41

Generic D Candidate 45
Generic R Candidate 47

Trump approval 45/50
Logged
Pittsburgh For Kamala
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,886
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2018, 09:52:56 am »

Woohoo! Tilt D
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,002
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2018, 09:55:38 am »

McSally is a poor candidate, this is Lean D, but closer to Likely than Tossup.
Logged
Pittsburgh For Kamala
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,886
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2018, 09:58:50 am »

McSally is a poor candidate, this is Lean D, but closer to Likely than Tossup.

Yep, plus last week revealed her severe case of foot-in-the-mouth syndrome.
Logged
For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,034
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2018, 11:15:40 am »

I could see McSally being the Bruce Braley of this cycle. She really is overrated.
Logged
Oh Jeremy Corbyn
ShadowOfTheWave
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,565
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2018, 11:16:54 am »

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.
Logged
Speaker YE
YE
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,495


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2018, 11:23:44 am »

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

America’s sheriff got blown the fvck out by 13 points in 2016. Even outside of Maricopa County, Arizona Dems ran ahead of the rot of Hillary Clinton—look at O’Halleran winning a Trump seat by 8 points.

Tbf O'Halleran's seat is ancestrally a blue dog Democrat seat. But given that most pollsters do not poll in Spanish, it would not surprise me if Sinema outperformed.
Logged
Webnicz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 477
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2018, 12:23:08 pm »

We have been saying this all along.

McSally could have chosen to go down as a Rick Saccone type boring candidate

But she chose to go hard right...she increasingly is looking just like Kelli Ward, And if Ward couldn't win a general election as a nutjob neither can McSally
Logged
Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,770
France


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2018, 12:51:36 pm »

Hmmmm, it is worrying though that Generic Rep is leading Generic Dem by 2.
Logged
JG
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 931


P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2018, 12:53:39 pm »

Hmmmm, it is worrying though that Generic Rep is leading Generic Dem by 2.

I think a Generic Dem is imagined to be more liberal than Sinema actually is and a generic Rep more moderate than McSally is playing it right now.
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,740
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2018, 01:14:54 pm »

Hmmmm, it is worrying though that Generic Rep is leading Generic Dem by 2.

Not really, Arizona has been a red state for decades.
Logged
Webnicz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 477
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2018, 01:27:53 pm »

Hmmmm, it is worrying though that Generic Rep is leading Generic Dem by 2.

I think a Generic Dem is imagined to be more liberal than Sinema actually is and a generic Rep more moderate than McSally is playing it right now.

^^
Logged
bronz4141
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,693
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2018, 01:44:18 pm »

It's March 2018


Anything can happen. AZ-SEN is Tossup.
Logged
Tintrlvr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,446
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2018, 02:17:30 pm »
« Edited: March 21, 2018, 02:21:54 pm by Tintrlvr »

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

America’s sheriff got blown the fvck out by 13 points in 2016. Even outside of Maricopa County, Arizona Dems ran ahead of the rot of Hillary Clinton—look at O’Halleran winning a Trump seat by 8 points.

Tbf O'Halleran's seat is ancestrally a blue dog Democrat seat. But given that most pollsters do not poll in Spanish, it would not surprise me if Sinema outperformed.

"Blue dog" is a really bad descriptor for that seat. It contains a lot of unusual demographic groups (Native Americans, including multiple rival tribal groups, small resort-town liberals in Sedona and Flagstaff, super-religious Mormons in Snowflake/Taylor/Holbrook etc. (not actual FLDS, who are outside the district, but more conservative than your average Utah Mormon)), which don't necessarily follow national trendlines, but that doesn't make it "blue dog".

Babeu I am certain underperformed because he is gay, especially in ultra-Mormon country. Navajo County, which is the center of the Mormon population in the district, voted for O'Halleran despite voting for Trump by 11% and had by far the biggest difference between Presidential and Congressional votes.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,708
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2018, 02:28:56 pm »

It's March 2018


Anything can happen. AZ-SEN is Tossup.

Logged
Webnicz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 477
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2018, 02:30:17 pm »
« Edited: March 21, 2018, 03:04:01 pm by Webnicz »

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

America’s sheriff got blown the fvck out by 13 points in 2016. Even outside of Maricopa County, Arizona Dems ran ahead of the rot of Hillary Clinton—look at O’Halleran winning a Trump seat by 8 points.

Tbf O'Halleran's seat is ancestrally a blue dog Democrat seat. But given that most pollsters do not poll in Spanish, it would not surprise me if Sinema outperformed.

"Blue dog" is a really bad descriptor for that seat. It contains a lot of unusual demographic groups (Native Americans, including multiple rival tribal groups, small resort-town liberals in Sedona and Flagstaff, super-religious Mormons in Snowflake/Taylor/Holbrook etc. (not actual FLDS, who are outside the district, but more conservative than your average Utah Mormon)), which don't necessarily follow national trendlines, but that doesn't make it "blue dog".

Babeu I am certain underperformed because he is gay, especially in ultra-Mormon country. Navajo County, which is the center of the Mormon population in the district, voted for O'Halleran despite voting for Trump by 11% and had by far the biggest difference between Presidential and Congressional votes.

Babeu was going to loose but he ended up loosing by a large margin because of all his scandals, not because he is gay. Though, one of his scandals includes threatening to deport his immigrant lover if he outed him as gay.

O'Halleran is a good independent minded(former GOP state rep) which helped his case.

I also believe mormons in the white mountain region are more likely to vote for democrats than mormons in Provo or Mesa. The White mountain region itself does have many rural whites that are more wiling to vote for Democrats than rural whites in other regions - think of it as Montana in a way, still leans conservative but willing to vote D down ballot.
to go further on the last point, while Clinton lost Navajo county by 10 points,  Kirkpatrick only lost by 2.8 and it was one of her best performing counties(she did so much better in this region than Clinton despite underperforming Clinton in Maricopa), and O'Halleran won Navajo.
Meanwhile in western Arizona counties like Yavapai and Mojave, rural whites aren't willing to vote Dem down ballot.
Logged
Speaker YE
YE
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,495


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2018, 02:40:46 pm »

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

America’s sheriff got blown the fvck out by 13 points in 2016. Even outside of Maricopa County, Arizona Dems ran ahead of the rot of Hillary Clinton—look at O’Halleran winning a Trump seat by 8 points.

Tbf O'Halleran's seat is ancestrally a blue dog Democrat seat. But given that most pollsters do not poll in Spanish, it would not surprise me if Sinema outperformed.

"Blue dog" is a really bad descriptor for that seat. It contains a lot of unusual demographic groups (Native Americans, including multiple rival tribal groups, small resort-town liberals in Sedona and Flagstaff, super-religious Mormons in Snowflake/Taylor/Holbrook etc. (not actual FLDS, who are outside the district, but more conservative than your average Utah Mormon)), which don't necessarily follow national trendlines, but that doesn't make it "blue dog".

Babeu I am certain underperformed because he is gay, especially in ultra-Mormon country. Navajo County, which is the center of the Mormon population in the district, voted for O'Halleran despite voting for Trump by 11% and had by far the biggest difference between Presidential and Congressional votes.

What would you describe it then? It's an R+2 district with unique groups that tends to elect moderate to conservative Democrats to Congress.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,462
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2018, 10:32:39 am »

Great poll. I assume Arpaio and  Ward would even be weaker candidates. Too bad they wern't polled.
Logged
America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,459
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2018, 04:57:38 pm »

Sinema will easily be the most attractive Senator in the country.
Logged
DTC
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,130


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: March 22, 2018, 05:03:05 pm »

Logged
You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
politicalmasta73
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,708
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: March 22, 2018, 08:23:29 pm »

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

America’s sheriff got blown the fvck out by 13 points in 2016. Even outside of Maricopa County, Arizona Dems ran ahead of the rot of Hillary Clinton—look at O’Halleran winning a Trump seat by 8 points.
tbf, he ran against fvcking babeu...
Logged
Pittsburgh For Kamala
PittsburghSteel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,886
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: March 22, 2018, 08:36:28 pm »

When will the PPP polls be added to the database?
Logged
Ronnie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,843
United States
P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: March 22, 2018, 09:07:58 pm »

Sinema will easily be the most attractive Senator in the country.

Martin Heinrich?
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,675


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: March 22, 2018, 09:28:31 pm »

Sinema will easily be the most attractive Senator in the country.

Eh, Gillibrand and Heinrich?
Logged
❤️❤️❤️
omegascarlet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,678


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: March 22, 2018, 10:37:10 pm »

Sinema will easily be the most attractive Senator in the country.

Creep
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC