WI-SEN PPP: Baldwin +12/+13

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Battleground-Health-Care-Memo.pdf

Baldwin 51

Vukmir 39
Nicholson 38

Generic D 49
Generic R 42

Trump approval 44/51

[KingSweden]

Good to see

[Gass3268]

The 2016 vote for this sample is tied between Clinton and Trump and Baldwin is getting 10-11% of Trump voters compared to the Republicans only getting 5-6% of the Clinton voters.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

[Xing]

Why is this race considered competitive again? I mean, if it were a Clinton midterm, sure, but Trump winning by less than 1% doesn’t make Wisconsin a dark red state, contrary to what half of Atlas believes.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Why is this race considered competitive again? I mean, if it were a Clinton midterm, sure, but Trump winning by less than 1% doesn’t make Wisconsin a dark red state, contrary to what half of Atlas believes.

Mainly because of Uihlein and the Kochs dumping millions into attack ads.

(Her approval in this poll remains at 48/40 lol, so good job guys)

[MT Treasurer]

Why is this race considered competitive again? I mean, if it were a Clinton midterm, sure, but Trump winning by less than 1% doesn’t make Wisconsin a dark red state, contrary to what half of Atlas believes.

Polarized state with a relatively high GOP floor, Johnson shocking the pundits and winning his race in 2016, Walker being on the ballot at the same time, the GOP “machine”, the (stupid) Kochs wasting millions on this race, etc.

I agree that it’s not competitive at all, though. And if it becomes competitive, 2018 won’t be a Democratic wave (far from it).

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I'm cautiously optimistic, but I want to see a Marquette Law poll before making any decisions.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Why is this race considered competitive again? I mean, if it were a Clinton midterm, sure, but Trump winning by less than 1% doesn’t make Wisconsin a dark red state, contrary to what half of Atlas believes.

Polarized state with a relatively high GOP floor, Johnson shocking the pundits and winning his race in 2016, Walker being on the ballot at the same time, the GOP “machine”, the (stupid) Kochs wasting millions on this race, etc.

I agree that it’s not competitive at all, though. And if it becomes competitive, 2018 won’t be a Democratic wave (far from it).

Ok can someone explain this "wisconsin polarized state" meme? it's literally been one of the most elastic states of the past 20 years. the midwest is super elastic.

like it went from kerry +0.2 to obama +14 to obama +7 to trump +1 to massive special election swings in 2018

[mcmikk]

Lol. I've been thinking for a while that Baldwin will win by double digits, but this gives me an actual semblance of a justification to parrot that for months on end, especially since it's in Atlas tradition to overreact to and over-extrapolate from every little new bit of information. Titanium D Wisconsin here we come!!!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yes, keep dumping money into this senate race instead of Indiana or Missouri, GOP. Wisconsin is safe R now!

[BuckeyeNut]

Kinda similar to the Ohio poll that just came out. Baldwin and the two Republicans have a higher share than Brown and his two opponents, but similar margins and a similar share of Trumpeters going to the populist Democratic incumbent. Good sign for Midwestern Democrats across the board!

[mcmikk]

I don’t blame the NRSC/Republican expert strategists for thinking this flips before MT, though. I mean, sure, the state was like 19 points less Republican in 2016 and Republican support has collapsed there recently, but Baldwin doesn’t have a folksy haircut, her ads aren’t really that cool, Steve Bullock won while Trump won the state won by 20 points(!!!), the Republican candidates in MT SUCK, and this whole retail politics magic doesn’t really work in WI.

Muh state GOP machine! Sharing a ballot with Scott "3 times in 4 years" Walker!!!! Muh Ron Johnson!!! Muh Trump!!! Wisconsin is a Safe R tea party paradise now!!!

[UncleSam]

Lol. I've been thinking for a while that Baldwin will win by double digits, but this gives me an actual semblance of a justification to parrot that for months on end, especially since it's in Atlas tradition to overreact to and over-extrapolate from every little new bit of information. Titanium D Wisconsin here we come!!!

This is one of my favorite posts low key

[Dr. Arch]

I don’t blame the NRSC/Republican expert strategists for thinking this flips before MT, though. I mean, sure, the state was like 19 points less Republican in 2016 and Republican support has collapsed there recently, but Baldwin doesn’t have a folksy haircut, her ads aren’t really that cool, Steve Bullock won while Trump won the state won by 20 points(!!!), the Republican candidates in MT SUCK, and this whole retail politics magic doesn’t really work in WI.

Muh state GOP machine! Sharing a ballot with Scott "3 times in 4 years" Walker!!!! Muh Ron Johnson!!! Muh Trump!!! Wisconsin is a Safe R tea party paradise now!!!

It certainly feels that way, friend. 

[Sir Mohamed]

Why is this race considered competitive again? I mean, if it were a Clinton midterm, sure, but Trump winning by less than 1% doesn’t make Wisconsin a dark red state, contrary to what half of Atlas believes.

Mainly because of Uihlein and the Kochs dumping millions into attack ads.

(Her approval in this poll remains at 48/40 lol, so good job guys)

Maybe also because Scott Walker is also on the ballot and WI voters aren't splitting votes that much?

But I agree this election is likely D. Or lean D at worse, while the governor's race is a pure toss-up.

[Gass3268]

Why is this race considered competitive again? I mean, if it were a Clinton midterm, sure, but Trump winning by less than 1% doesn’t make Wisconsin a dark red state, contrary to what half of Atlas believes.

Mainly because of Uihlein and the Kochs dumping millions into attack ads.

(Her approval in this poll remains at 48/40 lol, so good job guys)

Maybe also because Scott Walker is also on the ballot and WI voters aren't splitting votes that much?

But I agree this election is likely D. Or lean D at worse, while the governor's race is a pure toss-up.

It's hard to see more than say a 4 point difference between the Senate and Governor's races.

[Young Conservative]

Funny how atlas hates polls that test multiple states at once unless it benefits the Democrat

[McGovernForPrez]

Funny how atlas hates polls that test multiple states at once unless it benefits the Democrat

Because PPP is a solid pollster, and they conducted full polls for each race.

[Skye]

This is a Likely D race at best. I don't think Baldwin is vulnerable for now.

[I’m not Stu]

Who actually thinks Wisconsin is as red as Alabama?

[Senator Incitatus]

I think Baldwin winds up winning ~54-41

[Canis]

When are the ppp polls going to be put in the database

[RINO Tom]

Who actually thinks Wisconsin is as red as Alabama Mississippi?

Cora, LOL.