2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[KingSweden]

I think Democrats flip the House without her district, and her losing would not surprise me, but I think it’s the last SoCal seat to go (I don’t think we’re beatkng Calvert or Hunter).


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Original thread:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=262773.0

Regularly-updated retirement / open seat spreadsheet (DKE):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12RhR9oZZpyKKceyLO3C5am84abKzu2XqLWjP2LnQDgI/edit#gid=0


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Mod note (3/21/2018):  Added open seat / retirement spreadsheet link

[Holmes]

I think Democrats flip the House without her district, and her losing would not surprise me, but I think it’s the last SoCal seat to go (I don’t think we’re beatkng Calvert or Hunter).

I agree. Dems take back the House before winning CA-45 and it's the last Clinton/R seat to fall, but it will fall.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Mimi Walters is gonna get blown the f-ck out and it's gonna be hilarious.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I welcome the Republican hubris. It will make them easier to beat when the Democrat runs on actual issues and the Republicans continue to scream about antifa, MS-13, Clinton's emails, and Nancy Pelosi. They think it works still and I am completely fine with that.

[Sestak]

I think Democrats flip the House without her district, and her losing would not surprise me, but I think it’s the last SoCal seat to go (I don’t think we’re beatkng Calvert or Hunter).

I agree. Dems take back the House before winning CA-45 and it's the last Clinton/R seat to fall, but it will fall.

In my opinion, as someone who lives in CA-45, I think it’s going to flip before CA-48, due to the fact Irvine (home to 1/3 of CA-45s population) has a large Asian and Middile Eastern population (both groups are overwhelmingly Democratic), while CA-48 is pretty much a bunch of Wealthy White Conservatives with the exception of Costa Mesa, which is home to a large Hispanic community (most of them don’t vote), and Laguna Beach, which is home to many Wealth White Liberals (many are homosexuals from the Bay Area). This shows that demographically speaking, CA-45 is a much riper target for Democrats then CA-48.

Please note that Asian-Americans are not that liberal.

[Horus]

I think Democrats flip the House without her district, and her losing would not surprise me, but I think it’s the last SoCal seat to go (I don’t think we’re beatkng Calvert or Hunter).

I agree. Dems take back the House before winning CA-45 and it's the last Clinton/R seat to fall, but it will fall.

In my opinion, as someone who lives in CA-45, I think it’s going to flip before CA-48, due to the fact Irvine (home to 1/3 of CA-45s population) has a large Asian and Middile Eastern population (both groups are overwhelmingly Democratic), while CA-48 is pretty much a bunch of Wealthy White Conservatives with the exception of Costa Mesa, which is home to a large Hispanic community (most of them don’t vote), and Laguna Beach, which is home to many Wealth White Liberals (many are homosexuals from the Bay Area). This shows that demographically speaking, CA-45 is a much riper target for Democrats then CA-48.

Please note that Asian-Americans are not that liberal.

They're somewhat conservative fiscally, on average. But the recent trend towards nativism in the GOP is sending them to team blue in droves.

[Tekken_Guy]

Nah, NY-24 is the last Clinton-R seat to fall IMO.

[136or142]

Ryan Costello is running.

[morgieb]

Nah, NY-24 is the last Clinton-R seat to fall IMO.

He must be talking about California, rather than America as a whole.

Otherwise I'd also add TX-7 and 32.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Nah, NY-24 is the last Clinton-R seat to fall IMO.

He must be talking about California, rather than America as a whole.

Otherwise I'd also add TX-7 and 32.

Sessions is weaker than perceived on here, but he is still favored to win, but it will be a close one regardless.

[Doimper]

PPP has more numbers in Senate races.

-Sinema up 5 over McSally.
-Casey up 18 over Barletta lol
-Baldwin up 12 over Nicholson
-Rosen up 5 over Heller
-Bredesen up 5 over Blackum.

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Battleground-Health-Care-Memo.pdf

Dominating!

[Gustaf]

PPP has more numbers in Senate races.

-Sinema up 5 over McSally.
-Casey up 18 over Barletta lol
-Baldwin up 12 over Nicholson
-Rosen up 5 over Heller
-Bredesen up 5 over Blackum.

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Battleground-Health-Care-Memo.pdf

Great numbers, but this is specifically a non-poll thread right?

[YE]

Since old one is gonna be at 20K posts so setting this up so I look cooler .

[Virginiá]

Since old one is gonna be at 20K posts so setting this up so I look cooler .

Damn it, I didn't know it would boot you from first post if I merged the last page of the old thread with your new one. Sorry about that. I was just trying to preserve today's posts from the old thread.

It won't let me undo it either. Remind me with the next megathread and I'll put yours at the top.

[YE]

Since old one is gonna be at 20K posts so setting this up so I look cooler .

Damn it, I didn't know it would boot you from first post if I merged the last page of the old thread with your new one. Sorry about that. I was just trying to preserve today's posts from the old thread.

I mean it makes sense since today's post proceed my attempt at looking cool but technically hadn't the old thread - while 80 pages long - not reached 2K posts yet?

[Virginiá]

It didn't reach 2k yet no - I just figured I'd retire it anyway since it was almost there. I figured since SMF is picky about removing/splitting the first post of a thread, that your post would stay at the top no matter what, but it didn't, and now it won't let me move KingSweden's post, since it's the new first post

[YE]

It didn't reach 2k yet no - I just figured I'd retire it anyway since it was almost there. I figured since SMF is picky about removing/splitting the first post of a thread, that your post would stay at the top no matter what, but it didn't, and now it won't let me move KingSweden's post, since it's the new first post

Alright - that's interesting. anyhow, moving on, can you (assuming KingSweden doesn't beat you to the punch) at least change the title from "Re: 2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread"?

[Gass3268]

Additional candidates added to the DCCC's Red to Blue:



Going all in on Randy Bryce:

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/976849960909131776

[Doimper]

Going all in on Randy Bryce:

https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/976849960909131776

I wonder what their polling is showing

[Landslide Lyndon]

The DCCC sure tries to do their hardest to imitate the NRSC in incompetence and parody. Backing a deadbeat dad who periodically didn’t pay child support and pissing away millions in the process? I guess I shouldn’t be shocked after they blew over $10 million in GA-6 on a clown who didn’t live in the district.

Uhhh, it's not like there is another viable candidate against running against Ryan to support.
Bryce is the one who took the plunge, so if they want to pick up the district they have no choice but to support him.

[Young Conservative]

The DCCC sure tries to do their hardest to imitate the NRSC in incompetence and parody. Backing a deadbeat dad who periodically didn’t pay child support and pissing away millions in the process? I guess I shouldn’t be shocked after they blew over $10 million in GA-6 on a clown who didn’t live in the district.

Uhhh, it's not like there is another viable candidate against running against Ryan to support.
Bryce is the one who took the plunge, so if they want to pick up the district they have no choice but to support him.

Cathy Myers seems far better than bryce imo.

[YE]

The DCCC evaluates their candidates too much based on how much money raised. It's why they're shunned many Berniecrats but since Bryce, by virtue of running against the Speaker, can raise cash by grassroots more easily and get the DCCC's full support easily.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Remember Dino Rossi? Yeah apparently he might not of been the great recruit reps hoped https://mobile.twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/973059444199211009

[DemocraticKing]

Remember Dino Rossi? Yeah apparently he might not of been the great recruit reps hoped https://mobile.twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/973059444199211009

lol, attack ads are going to kill him.

[Doimper]

Remember Dino Rossi? Yeah apparently he might not of been the great recruit reps hoped https://mobile.twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/973059444199211009

rip greedo

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not directly relevant to congressional races but...

https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/977238455607578626