2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[ON Progressive]

Something to look out for in NY-11 primary but there is also a conservative ballot as well that Grimm and Donavan are on so there is a chance that both men could be on the ballot this November 

Is there a sore loser law in NY?

[Oryxslayer]

Something to look out for in NY-11 primary but there is also a conservative ballot as well that Grimm and Donavan are on so there is a chance that both men could be on the ballot this November 

Is there a sore loser law in NY?

No. Especially not with electoral fusion, NYs unique ballot.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1012119865124118529

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1012119865124118529

New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia might just be the ground zero states for the Republican suburban collapse. 

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1012119865124118529

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong, and Wrong.

VA 10th is Likely D

VA 7th was good at Lean R

VA 2nd was good at Lean R

CA 45th was good at Lean R

NJ 2nd is an alright move

NJ 3rd is an alright move.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1012119865124118529

Comstock is the only incumbent under "Lean Dem" :-)

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1012119865124118529

New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia might just be the ground zero states for the Republican suburban collapse. 

and California too

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1012119865124118529

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong, and Wrong.

VA 10th is Likely D

VA 7th was good at Lean R

VA 2nd was good at Lean R

CA 45th was good at Lean R

NJ 2nd is an alright move

NJ 3rd is an alright move.

CA-45 is as much of a tossup as CA-39. If primary results are an indication, shes performing within range of Darrell Issa in his 2016 primary. I wouldn't be surprised to see some resources shifted from the 39th to here

[Young Conservative]

Va-7 at tossup seems bullish.

[Gass3268]

Va-7 at tossup seems bullish.

Dems have a very good candidate, Brat is probably not the best Republican for D-trending district (someone like Comstock would be better), and Stewart on the ballot will not help here.

[Bidenworth2020]

Va-7 at tossup seems bullish.

Dems have a very good candidate, Brat is probably not the best Republican for D-trending district (someone like Comstock would be better), and Stewart on the ballot will not help here.

still, that is a really R district. I'd be surprised if he lost

[ON Progressive]

Va-7 at tossup seems bullish.

Dems have a very good candidate, Brat is probably not the best Republican for D-trending district (someone like Comstock would be better), and Stewart on the ballot will not help here.

still, that is a really R district. I'd be surprised if he lost

Kaine will probably win it though, and those coattails could help. I do get why one would be skeptical, given that even Northam lost it by 3.7% while winning statewide by 8.9%.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why does everyone think Barbara Comstock is the most vulnerable incumbent lol. She is not even in the top 5.

[Brittain33]

Why does everyone think Barbara Comstock is the most vulnerable incumbent lol. She is not even in the top 5.

Who else had a poll come out at -10 vs. their opponent?

[CityofSinners]

Why does everyone think Barbara Comstock is the most vulnerable incumbent lol. She is not even in the top 5.

Then post the more vulnerable incumbents. If you disagree with most posters and the professional handicappers atleast make a case for why Comstock is not even in the top5 of the most vulnerable incumbents in the house.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Why does everyone think Barbara Comstock is the most vulnerable incumbent lol. She is not even in the top 5.

Then post the more vulnerable incumbents. If you disagree with most posters and the professional handicappers atleast make a case for why Comstock is not even in the top5 of the most vulnerable incumbents in the house.

01. Carlos Curbelo
02. Will Hurd
03. Brian Fitzpatrick
04. Jeff Denham
05. Steve Knight
06. Rod Blum
07. Bruce Poliquin
08. Don Bacon
09. Barbara Comstock
10. Jason Lewis

[fridgeking]

Why does everyone think Barbara Comstock is the most vulnerable incumbent lol. She is not even in the top 5.

Then post the more vulnerable incumbents. If you disagree with most posters and the professional handicappers atleast make a case for why Comstock is not even in the top5 of the most vulnerable incumbents in the house.

01. Carlos Curbelo
02. Will Hurd
03. Brian Fitzpatrick
04. Jeff Denham
05. Steve Knight
06. Rod Blum
07. Bruce Poliquin
08. Don Bacon
09. Barbara Comstock
10. Jason Lewis

Brian Fitzpatrick is much less vulnerable than Comstock.

[CityofSinners]

Why does everyone think Barbara Comstock is the most vulnerable incumbent lol. She is not even in the top 5.

Then post the more vulnerable incumbents. If you disagree with most posters and the professional handicappers atleast make a case for why Comstock is not even in the top5 of the most vulnerable incumbents in the house.

01. Carlos Curbelo
02. Will Hurd
03. Brian Fitzpatrick
04. Jeff Denham
05. Steve Knight
06. Rod Blum
07. Bruce Poliquin
08. Don Bacon
09. Barbara Comstock
10. Jason Lewis

This list is just as bad as expected. You have people as more likely to lose that are in district that were won by HRC by less then VA-10, have weaker challengers, have stronger republicans up the ballot and are not polling at -10 in a H2H matchup.

[wesmoorenerd]

Why does everyone think Barbara Comstock is the most vulnerable incumbent lol. She is not even in the top 5.

Then post the more vulnerable incumbents. If you disagree with most posters and the professional handicappers atleast make a case for why Comstock is not even in the top5 of the most vulnerable incumbents in the house.

01. Carlos Curbelo
02. Will Hurd
03. Brian Fitzpatrick
04. Jeff Denham
05. Steve Knight
06. Rod Blum
07. Bruce Poliquin
08. Don Bacon
09. Barbara Comstock
10. Jason Lewis

This list is just as bad as expected. You have people as more likely to lose that are in district that were won by HRC by less then VA-10, have weaker challengers, have stronger republicans up the ballot and are not polling at -10 in a H2H matchup.

Here's a list that doesn't suck:
1. Barbara Comstock
2. Rod Blum
3. Jason Lewis
4. Keith Rothfus
5. Carlos Curbelo
6. Mike Coffman
7. Steve Knight
8. Jeff Denham
9. Brian Fitzpatrick
10. John Faso

Hurd and Poliquin are vulnerable but not top ten vulnerable if you ask me. Bacon is also vulnerable but certainly not top ten vulnerable against Eastman.

[Babeuf]

Pretty excited for the start of July and the steady stream of fundraising reports over 15 days! It will be good to have something concrete to talk about and evaluate.

If past trends hold we'll see some with huge quarters announce them very early in the month to get the most attention from political media. Beto and Randy Bryce have done this the last few times iirc.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

[smoltchanov]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

[Young Conservative]

Barbara Comstock would win 40+ states in a Presidential election, tbh

OF COURSE

[Hindsight was 2020]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Agreed I would switch ND and Tenn

[GeorgiaModerate]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Agreed I would switch ND and Tenn

I think IN is more likely to flip than ND.