2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[wesmoorenerd]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Agreed I would switch ND and Tenn

I think IN is more likely to flip than ND.

I agree. The Dems are favored to flip all three of NV, AZ, and TN at this point in time but there's a very good chance either IN or ND (or both) flip. However, pretty much every other Dem seat favors the incumbent, even if it's by a slim margin. I really do think the Dems' chances of taking back the Senate are underrated because the only seats that could really trip them up at this point are IN and ND. Heller is toast in NV, Sinema has a big lead in AZ, Bredesen is up in TN, Hawley is throwing MO away, Manchin and Tester are going to breeze by their C-tier challengers, and I have faith that Nelson will get up to speed and win in FL.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, I texted Richard Ojeda and he responded.

[Bidenworth2020]

Guys, I texted Richard Ojeda and he responded.

seriously, get him to do an ama on atlas!

what did he say?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, I texted Richard Ojeda and he responded.

seriously, get him to do an ama on atlas!

what did he say?

I just asked him a question about whittling down prescription drug prices.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Rofl you really sent him your novel

[kyc0705]

Rofl you really sent him your novel

Exclusive look at Ojeda getting Bagel's text:

[Tartarus Sauce]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

[smoltchanov]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

Still, with about 10 Democratic Senators running in Trump (2016) states, again - count me skeptical...

[Tartarus Sauce]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

Still, with about 10 Democratic Senators running in Trump (2016) states, again - count me skeptical...

Casey, Brown, Staebnow, and Baldwin are safe, Tester and Manchin pulled weak challengers and have strong local brands, and Hawley's looking like he's going to blow it with McCaskill. So you're likely only dealing with 3 real races with Nelson, Heitkamp, and Donnely.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

Still, with about 10 Democratic Senators running in Trump (2016) states, again - count me skeptical...

Casey, Brown, Staebnow, and Baldwin are safe, Tester and Manchin pulled weak challengers and have strong local brands, and Hawley's looking like he's going to blow it with McCaskill. So you're likely only dealing with 3 real races with Nelson, Heitkamp, and Donnely.

And all three of those can win, though I suspect Donnelly will have the toughest task among them.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

Still, with about 10 Democratic Senators running in Trump (2016) states, again - count me skeptical...

Casey, Brown, Staebnow, and Baldwin are safe, Tester and Manchin pulled weak challengers and have strong local brands, and Hawley's looking like he's going to blow it with McCaskill. So you're likely only dealing with 3 real races with Nelson, Heitkamp, and Donnely.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

Still, with about 10 Democratic Senators running in Trump (2016) states, again - count me skeptical...

Casey, Brown, Staebnow, and Baldwin are safe, Tester and Manchin pulled weak challengers and have strong local brands, and Hawley's looking like he's going to blow it with McCaskill. So you're likely only dealing with 3 real races with Nelson, Heitkamp, and Donnely.

Plus don't forget that we have three golden pickup opportunities as well.

[wesmoorenerd]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

Still, with about 10 Democratic Senators running in Trump (2016) states, again - count me skeptical...

Casey, Brown, Staebnow, and Baldwin are safe, Tester and Manchin pulled weak challengers and have strong local brands, and Hawley's looking like he's going to blow it with McCaskill. So you're likely only dealing with 3 real races with Nelson, Heitkamp, and Donnely.

Plus don't forget that we have three golden pickup opportunities as well.

All of that taken together is why I think it's insane that places like PredictIt have the chances of a Democratic takeover at like 20%. Dems are up in NV, AZ, and TN, even if you put aside UTDH being a "tossup" and Bredesen being up consistently somehow counting as "lean R". Nelson will almost certainly increase his lead over Scott. People are making a huge deal out of his campaign not having enough Latino outreach and all but it's July. Nobody is paying attention yet! This is the kind of cardinal political junkie sin that people commit all too often. The fundamentals of this race all point toward Nelson, and even if Scott can indeed give him a fight (which he will) I fully expect Nelson to pull this one out. Donnelly and Heitkamp are easily the most vulnerable points for Dems, but in an environment like this I doubt they both go for Republicans, there's a good chance that neither do. There's pretty much zero polling on Indiana (thanks, absurd anti-polling laws) and Heitkamp is consistently underestimated, like she was in 2012. When you consider all of those factors together, I find it seriously absurd that PredictIt has Democratic control at 20%.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

Still, with about 10 Democratic Senators running in Trump (2016) states, again - count me skeptical...

Casey, Brown, Staebnow, and Baldwin are safe, Tester and Manchin pulled weak challengers and have strong local brands, and Hawley's looking like he's going to blow it with McCaskill. So you're likely only dealing with 3 real races with Nelson, Heitkamp, and Donnely.

Plus don't forget that we have three golden pickup opportunities as well.

All of that taken together is why I think it's insane that places like PredictIt have the chances of a Democratic takeover at like 20%. Dems are up in NV, AZ, and TN, even if you put aside UTDH being a "tossup" and Bredesen being up consistently somehow counting as "lean R". Nelson will almost certainly increase his lead over Scott. People are making a huge deal out of his campaign not having enough Latino outreach and all but it's July. Nobody is paying attention yet! This is the kind of cardinal political junkie sin that people commit all too often. The fundamentals of this race all point toward Nelson, and even if Scott can indeed give him a fight (which he will) I fully expect Nelson to pull this one out. Donnelly and Heitkamp are easily the most vulnerable points for Dems, but in an environment like this I doubt they both go for Republicans, there's a good chance that neither do. There's pretty much zero polling on Indiana (thanks, absurd anti-polling laws) and Heitkamp is consistently underestimated, like she was in 2012. When you consider all of those factors together, I find it seriously absurd that PredictIt has Democratic control at 20%.

Yeah, I'd peg it just shy of 40%.

[Zaybay]

Guys, I texted Richard Ojeda and he responded.

seriously, get him to do an ama on atlas!

what did he say?

I just asked him a question about whittling down prescription drug prices.

Awesome! Though that was a really really really really long text

[Zaybay]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

Still, with about 10 Democratic Senators running in Trump (2016) states, again - count me skeptical...

That statistic is repeated over and over. Its one of the most easy to understand principles behind these races, and the most deceiving.
Here are the 10 states in question from west coast to east
MT-Jon Tester
ND-Heidi Heitkamp
MO-Claire McCaskill
WI-Tammy Baldwin
IN-Joe Donnelly
MI-Debbie Stabnow
OH-Sherrod Brown
WV-Joe Manchin
PA-Bob Casey Jr.
FL-Bill Nelson
First of all, three states on that list are the rustbelt states that went to Trump by less than 1% each and ones that Obama won by a healthy margin, so take off PA,WI,and MI.

Next, since we the campaigns are starting up, we can use polling to deduct the safe senators, which include OH,MT, and arguably WV

We also have to take candidate quality into play, which helps to discount MT,OH, and WV more and also discounts MO, though it will still be a close race.

This leaves us with the actual competitive races for 2018 on the Democratic side
FL
ND
IN
(and possibly MO)
These are the only races at this point in the cycle that could flip to Republicans come the midterms. And even then, the Democrats have an advantage in all of them.
-Rick Scott and Bill Nelson have traded leads, but Rick is doing this by burning through money, Bill is barely spending.
-Cramer is a pretty bad canidate, constantly putting his foot in his mouth, whos only positive is that he has won statewide. He is even leading currently in polling. But the tarriffs are hitting this place hard, and Heidi has defied the odds before.
-Braun is an unknown. No one has any idea on how this race will go. He could be a tough opponent or a weak pushover. The only info we have is from Gravis, a below average polling group, which put the race at +1 for Braun. Seriously though, we need polling for this seat, not Texas polling.
-Claire McCaskill must be a witch or something, because everything is falling into place for her. The former Gov. is discraced but could run as an independent and throw the race. Josh Hawley, once considered an A+ recruit, is turning out to be too easy to attack and a poor fighter. Claire has been leading in most polls, something she failed to do in 2012. Everything is just working out for her.

And something most people forget when they talk about how "its impossible to hold these seats" is that these people have won these seats before, in 2012, at best a neutral, or tilt D, year. Now, these incumbents are going to have to play defense during a blue midterm year. It's not impossible to hold all of these seats, but it will be challenging.

[Gass3268]

First Round of House Majority PAC spending:

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1013549189161029632

Half of these are in districts Trump won.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A new model from Rachel Bitecofer of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University: http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/.  It's...interesting. 

House forecast: 223 D, 189 R, 23 Tossup

Senate: 49 D, 49 R, 2 Tossup -- AZ and TX!

Seats that Bitecofer predicts will definitely flip to D:

CA 25
CA 39
CA 45
CA 48
CA 49
CO 6
IL 6
KS 3
MN 3
NJ 11
VA 10
VA 7

[new_patomic]

A new model from Rachel Bitecofer of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University: http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/.  It's...interesting.  

House forecast: 223 D, 189 R, 23 Tossup

Senate: 49 D, 49 R, 2 Tossup -- AZ and TX!

Seats that Bitecofer predicts will definitely flip to D:

CA 25
CA 39
CA 45
CA 48
CA 49
CO 6
IL 6
KS 3
MN 3
NJ 11
VA 10
VA 7

First time I've seen someone, correctly in my view, list IL-12 as Lean-R and IL-13 as tossup.

[ajc0918]

A new model from Rachel Bitecofer of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University: http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/.  It's...interesting. 

House forecast: 223 D, 189 R, 23 Tossup

Senate: 49 D, 49 R, 2 Tossup -- AZ and TX!

Seats that Bitecofer predicts will definitely flip to D:

CA 25
CA 39
CA 45
CA 48
CA 49
CO 6
IL 6
KS 3
MN 3
NJ 11
VA 10
VA 7

I don't get why FL-27 isn't a definite flip. It seems more likely to flip than some of the "definite" flips.

[smoltchanov]

^ So, Democrats will not lose even single Senate seat? Count me skeptical...

Not that infeasible a scenario statistically speaking. IIRC, incumbent senators of the out of power party running for reelection during midterms have like a 95% reelection rate. Democrats losing only one senate seat this year would fit that average performance, so if the Republicans perform below average this year at the ballot box, they won't flip a single senate seat. Based on the fundamentals and special election results, this is certainly shaping up to be a very below average year for Republicans.

Still, with about 10 Democratic Senators running in Trump (2016) states, again - count me skeptical...

That statistic is repeated over and over. Its one of the most easy to understand principles behind these races, and the most deceiving.
Here are the 10 states in question from west coast to east
MT-Jon Tester
ND-Heidi Heitkamp
MO-Claire McCaskill
WI-Tammy Baldwin
IN-Joe Donnelly
MI-Debbie Stabnow
OH-Sherrod Brown
WV-Joe Manchin
PA-Bob Casey Jr.
FL-Bill Nelson
First of all, three states on that list are the rustbelt states that went to Trump by less than 1% each and ones that Obama won by a healthy margin, so take off PA,WI,and MI.

Next, since we the campaigns are starting up, we can use polling to deduct the safe senators, which include OH,MT, and arguably WV

We also have to take candidate quality into play, which helps to discount MT,OH, and WV more and also discounts MO, though it will still be a close race.

This leaves us with the actual competitive races for 2018 on the Democratic side
FL
ND
IN
(and possibly MO)
These are the only races at this point in the cycle that could flip to Republicans come the midterms. And even then, the Democrats have an advantage in all of them.
-Rick Scott and Bill Nelson have traded leads, but Rick is doing this by burning through money, Bill is barely spending.
-Cramer is a pretty bad canidate, constantly putting his foot in his mouth, whos only positive is that he has won statewide. He is even leading currently in polling. But the tarriffs are hitting this place hard, and Heidi has defied the odds before.
-Braun is an unknown. No one has any idea on how this race will go. He could be a tough opponent or a weak pushover. The only info we have is from Gravis, a below average polling group, which put the race at +1 for Braun. Seriously though, we need polling for this seat, not Texas polling.
-Claire McCaskill must be a witch or something, because everything is falling into place for her. The former Gov. is discraced but could run as an independent and throw the race. Josh Hawley, once considered an A+ recruit, is turning out to be too easy to attack and a poor fighter. Claire has been leading in most polls, something she failed to do in 2012. Everything is just working out for her.

And something most people forget when they talk about how "its impossible to hold these seats" is that these people have won these seats before, in 2012, at best a neutral, or tilt D, year. Now, these incumbents are going to have to play defense during a blue midterm year. It's not impossible to hold all of these seats, but it will be challenging.

Guys, it's an emply  talk and wish for now. I am not convinced, that  Democrats have  more, then 1 "guranteed pickup" right now - first. I think that ND, IN, MO and WV will be very difficult  until the end - second. And so on. Let's talk about that in mid-October. It may happen, but i am absolutely no sure it will happen (right now i am inclined, that  it will not). We shall see.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Aftab Pureval raised $885,000 in the second quarter https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/columnists/politics-extra/2018/07/03/congressional-race-cincinnati-democrat-builds-campaign-war-chest/755780002/

[KingSweden]

Aftab Pureval raised $885,000 in the second quarter https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/columnists/politics-extra/2018/07/03/congressional-race-cincinnati-democrat-builds-campaign-war-chest/755780002/

*whistles*

[Maxwell]

Aftab Pureval raised $885,000 in the second quarter https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/columnists/politics-extra/2018/07/03/congressional-race-cincinnati-democrat-builds-campaign-war-chest/755780002/

*whistles*

this is what we call a star candidate. OH-1 might be tilt D now - Chabot does not seem to be aware of how real this challenge is getting.

[ltomlinson31]

Sean Casten raised $789k in Q2: https://castenforcongress.com/blog/2018/07/03/casten-q2-2018/