2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/meganmesserly/status/1016390353979523072?s=19

Shame that it's all going to be wasted on UTDH.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1016398017576960000

ANOTHER Texas House Dem raising over a million.

[American2020]

With recent Democratic gains in the GCB, G. Elliot Morris's model currently gives the Democrats a 70-75% chance of winning the House in November:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1016325775329497088

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1016398017576960000

ANOTHER Texas House Dem raising over a million.

That's my nominee yeah!!

There is also a good chance that my precinct and a few others in the area will be holding a meet and greet for Allred in the next couple of months. A group of people is coordinating this stuff with a few precinct captains.

[American2020]

Blue wave? Five reasons Republicans could still crush Democrats in the 2018 elections

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https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/07/09/five-ways-republicans-beat-democrats-2018-elections-congress-column/759931002/

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So Bagel types are not just sitting around, they are organizing, donating, and getting pledged votes in addition to others who are even involved much more.

[Kodak]

Blue wave? Five reasons Republicans could still crush Democrats in the 2018 elections

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https://eu.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2018/07/09/five-ways-republicans-beat-democrats-2018-elections-congress-column/759931002/

These are the same talking points that have been routinely debunked here for the past year now. #3 is literally being debunked on this page. It's getting a bit tiring to hear them now.

It's also getting tiring to hear different people claim simultaneously that the Democrats are too centrist and too progressive to win anyone new. It's become clear that not liking Trump is good enough for the lion's share of independent voters.

[Virginiá]

These are the same talking points that have been routinely debunked here for the past year now. #3 is literally being debunked on this page. It's getting a bit tiring to hear them now.

It's also getting tiring to hear different people claim simultaneously that the Democrats are too centrist and too progressive to win anyone new. It's become clear that not liking Trump is good enough for the lion's share of independent voters.

Interesting that they used the D+11-to-flip-house thing from BC when there are numerous other analyses out there imagining a substantially less gaping margin being required. Sabato posited that a winning margin as low as 5 points or so could flip the House. I'm not saying that is the actual threshold, but I'd surely bet that 11 points is not either. And what is up with that title - "[...] Republicans could still crush Democrats ..." - CRUSH? Really? I mean, what is the author talking about. Is it that Democrats will come just up just shy of winning, or Republicans will somehow deflate all the energy on the left between now and November and transfer it to the right, somehow resulting in a Republican wave, which would actually be something deserving of the term "crushed." It's really hard for me to even move past the title in this.

I think the author is just cherry picking arguments and data to bolster their preferred narrative (or perhaps just some bs they felt otherwise compelled to write).

[IceSpear]

Not to mention that if Democrats won the generic ballot by 5 and still lost the House, it wouldn't be a bad result for them. It would be a good result that was thwarted through election riggage.

[Badger]

Morris is probably right.  But always remember Hillary was almost everyone’s winner for the whole cycle and by greater %s than 75%.

You lefties actually have some people afraid to express there support.  I even have second thoughts about putting up a Trump sign or putting on a bumper sticker.  It really makes me mad I have to worry about this because some of you have developed derangement syndromes and will take it to the point of destroying property and injuring persons.

I can't imagine what it's like for someone living in the United States to fear an attack on their property or person by deranged individuals simply because of who they are. Thoughts and prayers.

You need to post here much much more often.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So Bagel types are not just sitting around, they are organizing, donating, and getting pledged votes in addition to others who are even involved much more.

There is such a thing as Bagel types?

[ajc0918]

FL-18:

https://twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1016684355282964482

[ajc0918]

CA-25:

Katie Hill has raised more than $1M in Q2
https://twitter.com/Gkelly1193/status/1016657565558509568

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1016698262009597952

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

So Bagel types are not just sitting around, they are organizing, donating, and getting pledged votes in addition to others who are even involved much more.

There is such a thing as Bagel types?

I meant suburban dems in contested areas.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So Bagel types are not just sitting around, they are organizing, donating, and getting pledged votes in addition to others who are even involved much more.

There is such a thing as Bagel types?

They must be cousins of the jmfsct types.

[American2020]

Dems outpace GOP registration in June

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https://newjerseyglobe.com/section-2/dems-outpace-gop-registration-in-june/

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/Emma_Dumain/status/1016799529209925634

[Ebsy]

If we are discussing party registration, Democrats added 7,706 voters to the GOP 4,462 in June in Colorado, and Democrats now outnumber the GOP with 1,023,519 to the GOP's 1,004,578. Additionally, Democrats outnumber Republicans 147,425 to 138,522 in the 6th Congressional district, where Republican incumbent Mike Coffman is fighting for his political life.

Compared to November 2016, Democrats were up 9,436 voters compared to 18,941 (and growing) as of today, and were up 1,712 voters in CO-06 compared to 8,563 (and growing) today.

[Ebsy]

Turning to Nevada, Democrats were up 88,818 voters on election day 2016, 577,679 to 488861. With a couple months to go, having nearly drawn even with the GOP last year, Democrats maintain a 65,694 voter registration edge, mustering 562,166 to the GOP's 496,472. They maintain registration leads in both NV-03 and NV-04 similar to what they held when they picked them up in 2016. Democrats are adding about 3000 voters to their registration edge each month, so they should be near where they were in 2016 on election day.

[Gass3268]

13 Democrats have raised over $1 million in Q2:

[Gass3268]

All hail the chart:

[American2020]

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https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/july-house-overview-democrats-remain-slight-favorites-majority

[Ebsy]

The pattern of the generic ballot has been rather uncanny.

[American2020]

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http://www.newsweek.com/majority-democrats-want-candidates-more-bernie-sanders-poll-1019025