Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 16, 2019, 11:03:13 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
| | |-+  Chicago Mayoral 2019 - Megathread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] Print
Author Topic: Chicago Mayoral 2019 - Megathread  (Read 5745 times)
Mr. Illini
liberty142
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,671
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.87, S: -5.48

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #125 on: January 13, 2019, 09:39:00 am »

the "Republican" in the race is not Daley, and certainly not Wilson. Daley stands for the interests of the city's wealthy elite, but that's not synonymous with Republicans, especially in Chicago -- it's more or less a lot of the same people who backed Rahm. The candidates who are actively attempting to court Republicans (appearing at GOP events, targeting GOP voters, etc) are Joyce, Fioretti, Kozlar, McCarthy and Vallas, the latter two of whom are the most serious. Vallas, hilariously, showed up at my college's College Republicans meeting, and recently received the endorsement of Bruce Rauner. McCarthy, meanwhile, is pursuing the votes of every cop in the city

if you're a Republican in Chicago, you're probably voting for McCarthy if you're one of the northwest side Republicans, and Vallas if you're one of the rich Republicans who wants to privatize every function of city government. Also a decent chance of voting for Joyce or Kozlar, depending on neighborhood ties (southwest side for the former, Canaryville for the latter). No idea who's voting for Fioretti, but someone is lmao

I was speaking more so in terms of preferred policy as opposed to courting actual Republicans. Going to Republican events etc is a waste of time in this city - they do not represent a serious voting bloc. On the other hand, there are candidates whose policies are more conservative than others. Daley has openly said he wants to amend the IL Constitution to make it so the state can go back and reduce the pensions of those who have already worked. He stated that he did not favor a progressive income tax in Illinois (Vallas says he does, Fioretti and McCarthy also say no).
Logged


Reform NOW
Mr. Illini
liberty142
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,671
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.87, S: -5.48

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #126 on: January 13, 2019, 09:41:01 am »

Lightfoot is probably my preferred candidate overall, but I'll only vote for her if Preckwinkle seems guaranteed one of the runoff spots -- if there's any real potential of a Mendoza-Daley runoff, I'll vote for Preckwinkle.

I'm taking the same approach at this point. The ironic point is that Lightfoot could be a factor in forcing Preckwinkle out of the runoff. She is aiming for the same coalition that Preckwinkle is - the Harold Washington coalition of African Americans plus white reformist liberals on the north side. Mendoza is shooting for a coalition of Latino residents plus WWC workers on the far NW and SW sides. Daley hopes to peel off enough of the north side whites + Latinos (his brother's coalition).
« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 09:46:10 am by Mr. Illini »Logged


Reform NOW
BundouYMB
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 818


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #127 on: January 13, 2019, 10:22:34 am »

the "Republican" in the race is not Daley, and certainly not Wilson. Daley stands for the interests of the city's wealthy elite, but that's not synonymous with Republicans, especially in Chicago -- it's more or less a lot of the same people who backed Rahm. The candidates who are actively attempting to court Republicans (appearing at GOP events, targeting GOP voters, etc) are Joyce, Fioretti, Kozlar, McCarthy and Vallas, the latter two of whom are the most serious. Vallas, hilariously, showed up at my college's College Republicans meeting, and recently received the endorsement of Bruce Rauner. McCarthy, meanwhile, is pursuing the votes of every cop in the city

if you're a Republican in Chicago, you're probably voting for McCarthy if you're one of the northwest side Republicans, and Vallas if you're one of the rich Republicans who wants to privatize every function of city government. Also a decent chance of voting for Joyce or Kozlar, depending on neighborhood ties (southwest side for the former, Canaryville for the latter). No idea who's voting for Fioretti, but someone is lmao

What do you mean "certainly not Wilson"? Rauner praised Wilson on multiple occasions. Also, Rauner did not only endorse Vallas. He said he thought Vallas or Wilson would make the best Mayor. Whether or not Wilson is actively courting Republicans, he's certainly a candidate that appeals to Republicans.

Also, re:your next comment, Eniya is a complete non factor who will finish like 12th, and I would certainly add Mendoza is a progressive liberal.
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,671
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.87, S: -5.48

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #128 on: January 13, 2019, 10:37:06 am »

the "Republican" in the race is not Daley, and certainly not Wilson. Daley stands for the interests of the city's wealthy elite, but that's not synonymous with Republicans, especially in Chicago -- it's more or less a lot of the same people who backed Rahm. The candidates who are actively attempting to court Republicans (appearing at GOP events, targeting GOP voters, etc) are Joyce, Fioretti, Kozlar, McCarthy and Vallas, the latter two of whom are the most serious. Vallas, hilariously, showed up at my college's College Republicans meeting, and recently received the endorsement of Bruce Rauner. McCarthy, meanwhile, is pursuing the votes of every cop in the city

if you're a Republican in Chicago, you're probably voting for McCarthy if you're one of the northwest side Republicans, and Vallas if you're one of the rich Republicans who wants to privatize every function of city government. Also a decent chance of voting for Joyce or Kozlar, depending on neighborhood ties (southwest side for the former, Canaryville for the latter). No idea who's voting for Fioretti, but someone is lmao

What do you mean "certainly not Wilson"? Rauner praised Wilson on multiple occasions. Also, Rauner did not only endorse Vallas. He said he thought Vallas or Wilson would make the best Mayor. Whether or not Wilson is actively courting Republicans, he's certainly a candidate that appeals to Republicans.

Also, re:your next comment, Eniya is a complete non factor who will finish like 12th, and I would certainly add Mendoza is a progressive liberal.

No, she is certainly not. She has fallen in line with Madigan and the rest of the machine every step of the way. She cites Madigan and Ed Burke as her mentors. She is no reformist nor progressive.
Logged


Reform NOW
BundouYMB
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 818


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #129 on: January 13, 2019, 10:48:37 am »

the "Republican" in the race is not Daley, and certainly not Wilson. Daley stands for the interests of the city's wealthy elite, but that's not synonymous with Republicans, especially in Chicago -- it's more or less a lot of the same people who backed Rahm. The candidates who are actively attempting to court Republicans (appearing at GOP events, targeting GOP voters, etc) are Joyce, Fioretti, Kozlar, McCarthy and Vallas, the latter two of whom are the most serious. Vallas, hilariously, showed up at my college's College Republicans meeting, and recently received the endorsement of Bruce Rauner. McCarthy, meanwhile, is pursuing the votes of every cop in the city

if you're a Republican in Chicago, you're probably voting for McCarthy if you're one of the northwest side Republicans, and Vallas if you're one of the rich Republicans who wants to privatize every function of city government. Also a decent chance of voting for Joyce or Kozlar, depending on neighborhood ties (southwest side for the former, Canaryville for the latter). No idea who's voting for Fioretti, but someone is lmao

What do you mean "certainly not Wilson"? Rauner praised Wilson on multiple occasions. Also, Rauner did not only endorse Vallas. He said he thought Vallas or Wilson would make the best Mayor. Whether or not Wilson is actively courting Republicans, he's certainly a candidate that appeals to Republicans.

Also, re:your next comment, Eniya is a complete non factor who will finish like 12th, and I would certainly add Mendoza is a progressive liberal.

No, she is certainly not. She has fallen in line with Madigan and the rest of the machine every step of the way. She cites Madigan and Ed Burke as her mentors. She is no reformist nor progressive.

What kind of metric is that? You don't necessarily have to be a reformist to be a progressive or liberal. Preckwinkle, for example, is also a machine politician... and is far more dependent on her machine ties than Mendoza (Mendoza actually has a strong personal brand at this point. Without her machine ties Preckwinkle would have no hope of making the runoff.)
Logged
sjoyce
sjoycefla
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,985
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #130 on: January 13, 2019, 11:23:26 am »

What do you mean "certainly not Wilson"? Rauner praised Wilson on multiple occasions. Also, Rauner did not only endorse Vallas. He said he thought Vallas or Wilson would make the best Mayor. Whether or not Wilson is actively courting Republicans, he's certainly a candidate that appeals to Republicans.
There's a difference between being a conservative, which Wilson is, and being a Republican in the particular sense of today's Republican Party, which is what I assumed the poster was asking about. Wilson specifically has embraced an odd blend of generally "pro-business" policies that appeal to conservatives (a property tax freeze, for instance) with policies that are anathema to everything the GOP stands for (sanctuary city, ending police brutality, free CTA for seniors). It's correct to understand him as one of the more conservative candidates among the members of the field, but it's very odd to call him a Republican (a lot of this also applies to Daley, for that matter).

Also, re:your next comment, Eniya is a complete non factor who will finish like 12th
She's fourth in the most recent polling.

I would certainly add Mendoza is a progressive liberal.
No
Logged
BundouYMB
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 818


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #131 on: January 13, 2019, 11:35:22 am »

What do you mean "certainly not Wilson"? Rauner praised Wilson on multiple occasions. Also, Rauner did not only endorse Vallas. He said he thought Vallas or Wilson would make the best Mayor. Whether or not Wilson is actively courting Republicans, he's certainly a candidate that appeals to Republicans.
There's a difference between being a conservative, which Wilson is, and being a Republican in the particular sense of today's Republican Party, which is what I assumed the poster was asking about. Wilson specifically has embraced an odd blend of generally "pro-business" policies that appeal to conservatives (a property tax freeze, for instance) with policies that are anathema to everything the GOP stands for (sanctuary city, ending police brutality, free CTA for seniors). It's correct to understand him as one of the more conservative candidates among the members of the field, but it's very odd to call him a Republican (a lot of this also applies to Daley, for that matter)

Well, I don't think any major candidate is a "normal" Republican. If we're talking about candidates above asterisk level that Republicans might support, Wilson is definitely up there.

Edit: I mean, Vallas, who you listed, was literally Pat Quinn's running mate in 2014.

Also, re:your next comment, Eniya is a complete non factor who will finish like 12th
She's fourth in the most recent polling.

Could you link me the poll? The best poll I've seen for Eniya was the recent CTU poll that had her at 7%, behind Preckwinkle, Mendoza, Daley, and McCarthy. And I expect her to fall, not rise, during the campaign because she has no money and barely any campaign infrastructure.

I would certainly add Mendoza is a progressive liberal.
No

I can't imagine thinking Mendoza is to the right of, say, Preckwinkle. Could you expand on your thoughts here?
« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 11:38:40 am by BundouYMB »Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,671
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.87, S: -5.48

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #132 on: January 13, 2019, 11:41:07 am »

the "Republican" in the race is not Daley, and certainly not Wilson. Daley stands for the interests of the city's wealthy elite, but that's not synonymous with Republicans, especially in Chicago -- it's more or less a lot of the same people who backed Rahm. The candidates who are actively attempting to court Republicans (appearing at GOP events, targeting GOP voters, etc) are Joyce, Fioretti, Kozlar, McCarthy and Vallas, the latter two of whom are the most serious. Vallas, hilariously, showed up at my college's College Republicans meeting, and recently received the endorsement of Bruce Rauner. McCarthy, meanwhile, is pursuing the votes of every cop in the city

if you're a Republican in Chicago, you're probably voting for McCarthy if you're one of the northwest side Republicans, and Vallas if you're one of the rich Republicans who wants to privatize every function of city government. Also a decent chance of voting for Joyce or Kozlar, depending on neighborhood ties (southwest side for the former, Canaryville for the latter). No idea who's voting for Fioretti, but someone is lmao

What do you mean "certainly not Wilson"? Rauner praised Wilson on multiple occasions. Also, Rauner did not only endorse Vallas. He said he thought Vallas or Wilson would make the best Mayor. Whether or not Wilson is actively courting Republicans, he's certainly a candidate that appeals to Republicans.

Also, re:your next comment, Eniya is a complete non factor who will finish like 12th, and I would certainly add Mendoza is a progressive liberal.

No, she is certainly not. She has fallen in line with Madigan and the rest of the machine every step of the way. She cites Madigan and Ed Burke as her mentors. She is no reformist nor progressive.

What kind of metric is that? You don't necessarily have to be a reformist to be a progressive or liberal. Preckwinkle, for example, is also a machine politician... and is far more dependent on her machine ties than Mendoza (Mendoza actually has a strong personal brand at this point. Without her machine ties Preckwinkle would have no hope of making the runoff.)

Preckwinkle actually has a record of progressive opposition. As alderman, she voted many times against Daley's budgets. One time, she was the only one to do so. As Board President, she has made significant investments in criminal justice reform and restorative justice/recidivism reduction programs. She has a strong record on affordable housing. She opposed the parking meter deal. She pushed for weed decriminalization. She opposed Rahm on the school closings.

Preckwinkle has certainly made friends with certain individuals in order to avoid conflict with those individuals, but that is trumped by her progressive record. What is Mendoza's progressive record?
« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 11:47:04 am by Mr. Illini »Logged


Reform NOW
BundouYMB
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 818


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #133 on: January 13, 2019, 11:50:11 am »

the "Republican" in the race is not Daley, and certainly not Wilson. Daley stands for the interests of the city's wealthy elite, but that's not synonymous with Republicans, especially in Chicago -- it's more or less a lot of the same people who backed Rahm. The candidates who are actively attempting to court Republicans (appearing at GOP events, targeting GOP voters, etc) are Joyce, Fioretti, Kozlar, McCarthy and Vallas, the latter two of whom are the most serious. Vallas, hilariously, showed up at my college's College Republicans meeting, and recently received the endorsement of Bruce Rauner. McCarthy, meanwhile, is pursuing the votes of every cop in the city

if you're a Republican in Chicago, you're probably voting for McCarthy if you're one of the northwest side Republicans, and Vallas if you're one of the rich Republicans who wants to privatize every function of city government. Also a decent chance of voting for Joyce or Kozlar, depending on neighborhood ties (southwest side for the former, Canaryville for the latter). No idea who's voting for Fioretti, but someone is lmao

What do you mean "certainly not Wilson"? Rauner praised Wilson on multiple occasions. Also, Rauner did not only endorse Vallas. He said he thought Vallas or Wilson would make the best Mayor. Whether or not Wilson is actively courting Republicans, he's certainly a candidate that appeals to Republicans.

Also, re:your next comment, Eniya is a complete non factor who will finish like 12th, and I would certainly add Mendoza is a progressive liberal.

No, she is certainly not. She has fallen in line with Madigan and the rest of the machine every step of the way. She cites Madigan and Ed Burke as her mentors. She is no reformist nor progressive.

What kind of metric is that? You don't necessarily have to be a reformist to be a progressive or liberal. Preckwinkle, for example, is also a machine politician... and is far more dependent on her machine ties than Mendoza (Mendoza actually has a strong personal brand at this point. Without her machine ties Preckwinkle would have no hope of making the runoff.)

Preckwinkle actually has a record of progressive opposition. As alderman, she voted many times against Daley's budgets. One time, she was the only one to do so. As Board President, she has made significant investments in criminal justice reform and restorative justice/recidivism reduction programs. She has a strong record on affordable housing. She opposed the parking meter deal.

Preckwinkle has certainly made friends with certain individuals in order to avoid conflict with those individuals, but that is trumped by her progressive record. What is Mendoza's progressive record?

Well, she supported moving to a progressive income tax system and raising the minimum wage. Opposing Madigan is just political suicide, especially if you're a state representative.

I want to be clear I'm not against Preckwinkle or disagreeing that she's a solid progressive. I just can't see her as being that different on the issues from Mendoza, and I really can't see her being more of an outsider.
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,671
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.87, S: -5.48

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #134 on: January 13, 2019, 11:57:04 am »

the "Republican" in the race is not Daley, and certainly not Wilson. Daley stands for the interests of the city's wealthy elite, but that's not synonymous with Republicans, especially in Chicago -- it's more or less a lot of the same people who backed Rahm. The candidates who are actively attempting to court Republicans (appearing at GOP events, targeting GOP voters, etc) are Joyce, Fioretti, Kozlar, McCarthy and Vallas, the latter two of whom are the most serious. Vallas, hilariously, showed up at my college's College Republicans meeting, and recently received the endorsement of Bruce Rauner. McCarthy, meanwhile, is pursuing the votes of every cop in the city

if you're a Republican in Chicago, you're probably voting for McCarthy if you're one of the northwest side Republicans, and Vallas if you're one of the rich Republicans who wants to privatize every function of city government. Also a decent chance of voting for Joyce or Kozlar, depending on neighborhood ties (southwest side for the former, Canaryville for the latter). No idea who's voting for Fioretti, but someone is lmao

What do you mean "certainly not Wilson"? Rauner praised Wilson on multiple occasions. Also, Rauner did not only endorse Vallas. He said he thought Vallas or Wilson would make the best Mayor. Whether or not Wilson is actively courting Republicans, he's certainly a candidate that appeals to Republicans.

Also, re:your next comment, Eniya is a complete non factor who will finish like 12th, and I would certainly add Mendoza is a progressive liberal.

No, she is certainly not. She has fallen in line with Madigan and the rest of the machine every step of the way. She cites Madigan and Ed Burke as her mentors. She is no reformist nor progressive.

What kind of metric is that? You don't necessarily have to be a reformist to be a progressive or liberal. Preckwinkle, for example, is also a machine politician... and is far more dependent on her machine ties than Mendoza (Mendoza actually has a strong personal brand at this point. Without her machine ties Preckwinkle would have no hope of making the runoff.)

Preckwinkle actually has a record of progressive opposition. As alderman, she voted many times against Daley's budgets. One time, she was the only one to do so. As Board President, she has made significant investments in criminal justice reform and restorative justice/recidivism reduction programs. She has a strong record on affordable housing. She opposed the parking meter deal.

Preckwinkle has certainly made friends with certain individuals in order to avoid conflict with those individuals, but that is trumped by her progressive record. What is Mendoza's progressive record?

Well, she supported moving to a progressive income tax system and raising the minimum wage. Opposing Madigan is just political suicide, especially if you're a state representative.

I want to be clear I'm not against Preckwinkle or disagreeing that she's a solid progressive. I just can't see her as being that different on the issues from Mendoza, and I really can't see her being more of an outsider.

Preckwinkle favors the progressive income tax and has been calling for a $15 minimum wage for some time.

I think you're off base here. Preckwinkle is considered to be more progressive than Mendoza.

Also, to circle back to the earlier point, it is very difficult to be considered a progressive if you're tied up with the machine. Ironically, Preckwinkle is probably the best example of it. Mendoza is more tied up than anyone else (save maybe Chico) - she got married at Ed Burke's house, for cryin out loud. We're not just talking about national political issues here. Locally, reform is part of the progressive platform.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 12:02:25 pm by Mr. Illini »Logged


Reform NOW
sjoyce
sjoycefla
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,985
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #135 on: January 15, 2019, 01:07:45 pm »

Well, I don't think any major candidate is a "normal" Republican. If we're talking about candidates above asterisk level that Republicans might support, Wilson is definitely up there.

Edit: I mean, Vallas, who you listed, was literally Pat Quinn's running mate in 2014.

This is the Willie Wilson experience. His politics are esoteric in a way that positions him as "conservative" but which certainly does not appeal him to the Republicans who actually vote in these things -- I expect his vote patterns will have very little statistical relationship w/ Trump or Rauner's percentage.

All of these people are Democrats, it's true, but the part of the story you're missing is the fury the Vallas pick generated -- he is and has always been a privatizer.

Could you link me the poll? The best poll I've seen for Eniya was the recent CTU poll that had her at 7%, behind Preckwinkle, Mendoza, Daley, and McCarthy. And I expect her to fall, not rise, during the campaign because she has no money and barely any campaign infrastructure.
I'm referring to the CTU poll, in which she was tied for fourth with McCarthy. Not sure why you'd expect her to fall -- she's at 7% with no money, and the news cycle since that CTU poll has been, uh, less than favorable for the people above her.

I can't imagine thinking Mendoza is to the right of, say, Preckwinkle. Could you expand on your thoughts here?
Mendoza is Madigan's candidate and is significantly to the right of Preckwinkle as a result.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines