Chicago Megathread: With CTU on strike, Lightfoot lays out her budget

[Donerail]

Pawar, Rosa, Preckwinkle if she wants it, Lewis if she's up to it.

Paul Vallas is also running, but he's firmly in the terrible camp.

[Donerail]

McCarthy is, bizarrely, trying to tack left -- promising to reverse school closings by redistributing funding away from the North Side, showing up at the March for Our Lives, talking about creating a more progressive tax structure.

[Donerail]

I read a few things about Chicago's political machine - is it still that strong? How it relates to Emanuel as of 2018?

No, not at all. The old-school, "don't want nobody that nobody sent" machine died with Washington's victory in the Council Wars back in the mid-80s. There is still an influential Regular Democratic Organization, but it's less united and far less powerful than the old machine.

[Donerail]

Disagree that Brown's competitive -- I think a large part of this bid is raising money for legal fees.

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That's why patrons are pulling a mass exodus out of and into suburbs

there is no shortage of patrón in chicago

[Donerail]

https://twitter.com/maxwelltani/status/1019800097205473282

Chano for Mayor, y'all.

[Donerail]

McCarthy offers support for the #NoCopAcademy movement, what a weird city we live in

[Donerail]

McCarthy is still leading in polls, there was a poll just released today that showed him leading (look it up).

He will continue to be the frontrunner if Preckwinkle doesn't run.

Extremely impressive to post three sentences and have two of them be flat-out wrong.

Raba Research (MoE ±4)
Gutiérrez: 21%
McCarthy: 18%
Preckwinkle: 16%
Lightfoot: 10%
Vallas: 10%
Summers: 4%

[Donerail]

Is Lewis healthy enough to mount a run?

Extremely doubtful, especially since she's down back as CTU head.

Gutierrez is out and has endorsed Chuy. Chuy is not yet officially in, but he met with Gutierrez and Munoz last week, so draw your own conclusions.

[Donerail]

Is Lewis healthy enough to mount a run?

Extremely doubtful, especially since she's down back as CTU head.

Gutierrez is out and has endorsed Chuy. Chuy is not yet officially in, but he met with Gutierrez and Munoz last week, so draw your own conclusions.

So he's running for Congress, but also running for Mayor?

Yes, as Harold Washington did in '82. Not without precedent — especially likely as Chuy can now present it as being drafted to run for Mayor, rather than doing so out of ambition.

[Donerail]

Should probably have a conversation about how Van Dyke is gonna get acquitted

https://twitter.com/jmetr22b/status/1040000432985255937
https://twitter.com/ChipMitchell1/status/1039925537253281793

[Donerail]

Hopefully Luis will run

He will not. Literally seven posts up.

[Donerail]

Daley is IN, lmao. announcement on monday

[Donerail]

Daley is IN, lmao. announcement on monday

He's pretty much a lock to win, isn't he?

He's a lock to make the runoff, I'd think — he'll get the lion's share of the money. Winning a runoff is more difficult, but still more likely than not at this point.

[Donerail]

Yes, as Harold Washington did in '82. Not without precedent — especially likely as Chuy can now present it as being drafted to run for Mayor, rather than doing so out of ambition.

That's a pretty dumb thing to do.

Why?

[Donerail]

Yes, as Harold Washington did in '82. Not without precedent — especially likely as Chuy can now present it as being drafted to run for Mayor, rather than doing so out of ambition.

That's a pretty dumb thing to do.

Why?

It just looks like he's just running to get elected to something and can't commit to the job he has or is running for.

I get that he technically did want to be Mayor of Chicago first, but already planning to leave the office he will win before the election even happens for another office does not reflect well.

I don't see why anyone will care -- he's already been elected Congressman, Mayor's an obvious step up & he's probably better-situated than anyone on the left to make that jump.

[Donerail]

Holy crap, it's been two weeks and it's already hitting the fan.

Can I get a list of top 5 frontrunners?

Preckwinkle, Daley, Chuy are your top 3 at the moment. Lord knows about the rest, get back to me in a week or so once some of the dust settles. Probably Vallas and McCarthy at this point, but lord knows -- Mendoza, for example, could flip this race upside down if she gets in.

[Donerail]

For instance, Gery Chico is now in. Rumor says he has as much as $1.5m lined up

notably, this means there is now a Garry, a Jerry, and a Gery in the race

[Donerail]

Mayor's a step up from Congress, however, Garcia will probably lose to Daley. Why risk a guarantee to run a second underdog mayoral race? Especially knowing that Congress gives him a better shot at a job outside of Illinois since there's a long line of people who want to run statewide.

You're not "risking a guarantee." He will only resign the Congressional seat if he wins. If not, he just stays in Congress.

[Donerail]

https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1042891420158320641

[Donerail]

the "Republican" in the race is not Daley, and certainly not Wilson. Daley stands for the interests of the city's wealthy elite, but that's not synonymous with Republicans, especially in Chicago -- it's more or less a lot of the same people who backed Rahm. The candidates who are actively attempting to court Republicans (appearing at GOP events, targeting GOP voters, etc) are Joyce, Fioretti, Kozlar, McCarthy and Vallas, the latter two of whom are the most serious. Vallas, hilariously, showed up at my college's College Republicans meeting, and recently received the endorsement of Bruce Rauner. McCarthy, meanwhile, is pursuing the votes of every cop in the city

if you're a Republican in Chicago, you're probably voting for McCarthy if you're one of the northwest side Republicans, and Vallas if you're one of the rich Republicans who wants to privatize every function of city government. Also a decent chance of voting for Joyce or Kozlar, depending on neighborhood ties (southwest side for the former, Canaryville for the latter). No idea who's voting for Fioretti, but someone is lmao

[Donerail]

Thanks for all the info! What about the opposite? Who are the Progressives and liberals in this race?

Preckwinkle, Lightfoot & Enyia have been the most active in courting the city's "progressive" faction. Preckwinkle is probably the most "traditional"/establishment of the bunch, currently serving as the Chair of the Cook County Democratic Party -- she's won most of the unions & major institutional endorsements. Lightfoot has a few progressive and LGBT groups, and is a favorite of liberal/'good government' folks. Enyia has a youth-based strategy -- her biggest endorsement has come from Chance the Rapper.

Lightfoot is probably my preferred candidate overall, but I'll only vote for her if Preckwinkle seems guaranteed one of the runoff spots -- if there's any real potential of a Mendoza-Daley runoff, I'll vote for Preckwinkle.

[Donerail]

What do you mean "certainly not Wilson"? Rauner praised Wilson on multiple occasions. Also, Rauner did not only endorse Vallas. He said he thought Vallas or Wilson would make the best Mayor. Whether or not Wilson is actively courting Republicans, he's certainly a candidate that appeals to Republicans.

There's a difference between being a conservative, which Wilson is, and being a Republican in the particular sense of today's Republican Party, which is what I assumed the poster was asking about. Wilson specifically has embraced an odd blend of generally "pro-business" policies that appeal to conservatives (a property tax freeze, for instance) with policies that are anathema to everything the GOP stands for (sanctuary city, ending police brutality, free CTA for seniors). It's correct to understand him as one of the more conservative candidates among the members of the field, but it's very odd to call him a Republican (a lot of this also applies to Daley, for that matter).

Also, re:your next comment, Eniya is a complete non factor who will finish like 12th

She's fourth in the most recent polling.

I would certainly add Mendoza is a progressive liberal.

No

[Donerail]

Well, I don't think any major candidate is a "normal" Republican. If we're talking about candidates above asterisk level that Republicans might support, Wilson is definitely up there.

Edit: I mean, Vallas, who you listed, was literally Pat Quinn's running mate in 2014.

https://twitter.com/BeachwoodReport/status/1085228208692387840
This is the Willie Wilson experience. His politics are esoteric in a way that positions him as "conservative" but which certainly does not appeal him to the Republicans who actually vote in these things -- I expect his vote patterns will have very little statistical relationship w/ Trump or Rauner's percentage.

All of these people are Democrats, it's true, but the part of the story you're missing is the fury the Vallas pick generated -- he is and has always been a privatizer.

Could you link me the poll? The best poll I've seen for Eniya was the recent CTU poll that had her at 7%, behind Preckwinkle, Mendoza, Daley, and McCarthy. And I expect her to fall, not rise, during the campaign because she has no money and barely any campaign infrastructure.

I'm referring to the CTU poll, in which she was tied for fourth with McCarthy. Not sure why you'd expect her to fall -- she's at 7% with no money, and the news cycle since that CTU poll has been, uh, less than favorable for the people above her.

I can't imagine thinking Mendoza is to the right of, say, Preckwinkle. Could you expand on your thoughts here?

Mendoza is Madigan's candidate and is significantly to the right of Preckwinkle as a result.

[Donerail]

voted for Lightfoot