Kaine and Kilgore Neck-and-Neck in Latest Poll

[Frodo]

Governor's race is too close to call
-Survey suggests voters unmoved by candidates' messages, or may be distracted by other events

BY JEFF E. SCHAPIRO
TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER Sep 18, 2005

Entering the fall finale, the contest for Virginia governor remains a tossup.

The latest Times-Dispatch Poll shows Republican Jerry W. Kilgore with a statistically insignificant 1 percentage point lead over Democrat Timothy M. Kaine.

Independent H. Russell Potts Jr. is still a distant third, apparently less of threat to Kilgore than he was two months ago.

The survey suggests neither major-party nominees has hit on a theme or issue that moves an electorate that perhaps is underwhelmed by the candidates and their positions, or distracted by the Iraq war, gasoline prices and the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

And though Kaine and Kilgore have their bases intact, the Democrat appears to have a negligible advantage among those voters who typically decide Virginia contests: independents.

Kilgore, a former attorney general, is favored by 41 percent of those polled. Kaine, the lieutenant governor, is the preference of 40 percent. Potts, a Republican state senator from Winchester, is pulling 6 percent. Thirteen percent are undecided.

The results are virtually unchanged from the newspaper's poll in July, though at that point, Kaine was ahead by 1 percentage point and Potts was hovering at 9 percent.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington conducted the voter-opinion survey for The Times-Dispatch.

The new poll is based on phone interviews with 625 registered voters who said they are likely to cast ballots Nov. 8.

link

[Democratic Hawk]

It's seemingly an increasingly competitive race

Dave

[CARLHAYDEN]

Er,

the last Mason-Dixon poll of this race was a little strange.

It was the only poll to at any time show Kaine leading.

Now they admit that Kilgore is leading, abeit minimally.

[Moooooo]

Regardless, Kaine is peaking at the right time.  Not sure if it will be enough though.

Did anyone in the VA area catch the debate on sunday?

[TheresNoMoney]

There's still a few more debates and another 1 1/2 months until the election. Governor Warner will be out campaigning for Kaine.

The more people see and learn about Kilgore, the less they like him. Kaine is in a pretty good position.

[Alcon]

Er,

the last Mason-Dixon poll of this race was a little strange.

It was the only poll to at any time show Kaine leading.

Now they admit that Kilgore is leading, abeit minimally.

As much as this is weird, Mason-Dixon is a brilliant pollster - I'd say they are one point off or less about 60% of the time, and two points off or less 80% of the time.  I don't know if they have ever missed the MoE.

I learned my lesson from distrusting them about Wisconsin last year.

[Ben Meyers]

Glad to see this.  Kaine's lookin' good.

[RJ]

Did anyone in the VA area catch the debate on sunday?

I saw a little of a rerun debate on C-Span last night. I think it originally aired on September 8th.

I'll admit I've never seen these two candidates at all and had not followed this race very close(I thought Kilgore had a healthy lead). I don't know if it's his style, but Kilgore seemed flustered and uncomfortable. He seems like a fiery campaigner and had a flaming southern accent. Kaine repeatedly brought up his affiliation with Warner, citing he and the Governor worked closely on certain events. He hardly had an accent at all. Kilgore fired away repeatedly about how Kaine raised taxes and would do the same if he(Kaine) were governor. Kilgore also capitalized on something about northern Virginia, how there was a transportation issue there. I think Kilgore got a little shafted by the mediator(Tim Russert) because he was hassled about giving specific answers. The debate was intense overall.

I'd give Kaine points for style since he seemed to be a little more composed while the content was even, perhaps a slight edge to Kilgore. Anyone have any polling data from these debates?

By the way, I'll bet Warner is pulling for Kaine heavier than usual. If he runs in 08' and gets nominated, VA should be competitive. Kaine would definitly be more likely to campaign on his behalf there than Kilgore.

[BobOMac2k2]

I just watched their 9-13 debate and I wonder how Kilgore is still in this.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I just watched their 9-13 debate and I wonder how Kilgore is still in this.

Let's ask President Kerry what he thinks.

[BobOMac2k2]

Bush was able to answer questions. At least he knew what he was talking about.

All Kilgore kept doing was answering every question with the same answer, and ever time the answer was wrong.

I really like the "Hypothetical" part of the debate. If you saw this you couldn't help but laugh.