Election Night 20XX: Center Outward

[DPKdebator]

(I've recently had this feeling of writing some sort of electoral timeline, though I don't think I would be able to pull off a full election timeline. The "election night" part is the most interesting for me since I like to make maps. This is my very first, so it probably won't be that great, but it's based off a scenario I'm sure many of you are familiar with...)

November 3rd, 20XX 5:45 P.M. E.S.T

McManus: Good evening America, this is reporter Dennis McManus of the American Telecommunications News Network speaking. In just 15 minutes, we will be getting the first poll closings in the 20XX presidential election. Before then, we'll do a brief review of what has happened in this very unusual race for the White House.

Gomez: Good evening, I'm Albert Gomez. Both parties had exceptionally crowded primary elections, which many pundits attribute to splitting mainstream party audiences enough so that conservative Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia and moderate Republican Charlie Baker of Massachusetts were able to win their parties' nominations. Manchin picked Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar as his running mate, while Baker picked Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval. To the surprise of many, no major party figures on either side launched third-party candidacies, which would almost certainly have doomed their party's chances at winning. Some speculate that we could see cross-party voting rates double from the previous election, but we will not know for sure until the exit polls come out. Ann, let's pull up a map of the last poll aggregate.

Miller: Hi, this is Ann Miller, ATNN political analyst speaking. Let's check out the latest poll aggregate map, from FiveThirtyEight:

Miller: 222 electoral votes are currently rated as Democratic-leaning, while 209 electoral votes are rated as Republican-leaning and 107 are tossups. The darker shades indicate stronger leanings.

Gomez: How can we compare this map to previous elections?

Miller: For one, there's a huge number of battleground states. Only 22 states have the darkest shading for either party, including four traditionally competitive states, Nevada, West Virginia, New Hampshire, and Maine, which reflects the unusual matchup as well as home areas of the candidates. Strangely, Minnesota is closer than Iowa despite the former being Klobuchar's home state, which could be as a result of factors such as polling errors or moderate suburbanite support for Baker. Manchin's social conservatism and Baker's cultural liberalism has made Appalachia, which has been trending Republican for two decades now, a much closer region than usual, while the opposite is true for New England and the Pacific Northwest. The big question of the night is how much the party lines will shift. For Manchin to win, he must pull off victories in the Rust Belt and Midwest while holding on to traditionally Democratic states. For Baker to win, he must keep a hold on Republican states in the South as well as Missouri, Kentucky, and Ohio.


6:00 P.M. E.S.T.

McManus: Polls have closed in half of Kentucky and most of Indiana. We currently do not have any projected winners yet:

INDIANA (too early to call): 1% of precincts reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 15,595 (51.01%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 14,387 (47.06%)
Others: 591 (1.93%)

KENTUCKY (too close to call): 1% of precincts reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 9,261 (49.57%)
Baker/Sandoval: 9,208 (49.29%)
Others: 212 (1.14%)

Throughout the night, we will show this map of the entire country as the results come in. Unlike other networks, when the Republican wins a state it will light up blue, while when the Democrat wins a state it will light up red. Green states are too close or early to call, while gray states have not closed polls yet.

7:00 P.M. E.S.T.

McManus: Welcome back to Election Night 20XX. Polls have closed in the states of Florida, except for the western panhandle, Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont, parts of New Hampshire, half of Kentucky, and westernmost Indiana. Our current data allows us to make one projection:

NEW HAMPSHIRE - <1% of precincts reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 824 (50.37%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 791 (48.35%)
Others: 21 (1.28%)

McManus: No strong surprise here despite New Hampshire's traditionality as a swing state, considering Baker is from neighboring Massachusetts, and his moderate message appears to have played well with the state's population based off our exit polling data. Every other new state is too close or too early to call:

FLORIDA (too close to call) - 1% of precincts reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 50,397 (52.55%)
Baker/Sandoval: 44,187 (46.07%)
Others: 1,312 (1.38%)

GEORGIA (too early to call) - <1% of precincts reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 123 (54.91%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 98 (43.75%)
Others: 3 (1.34%)

SOUTH CAROLINA (too early to call) - <1% of precincts reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,097 (56.69%)
Baker/Sandoval: 799 (41.29%)
Others: 39 (2.02%)

VIRGINIA (too early to call) - <1% of precincts reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 94 (50.54%)
Baker/Sandoval: 91 (48.93%)
Others: 1 (.53%)

VERMONT (too close to call) - 1% of precincts reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,427 (50.73%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,345 (47.81%)
Others: 41 (1.46%)

McManus: We currently have 4 electoral votes called for Baker, 0 so far for Manchin, and 89 too close or early to call. Ann, what can we infer from these results so far?

Miller: It's very early into the night Dennis, but the number of uncalled states is shocking. What gives this irony is that one of the nation's prime swing states, New Hampshire, has already been called. Things will only get more interesting as the night progresses.


How does this sound so far? Any suggestions?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The meme that refuses to die.

[DPKdebator]

The meme that refuses to die.

It's true that the meme is dead, but in all seriousness I wanted to do something I knew I could write about. Do you all think it makes more sense to have "20XX," or should I change it to an actual year?

[DPKdebator]

7:30 P.M. EST

Gomez: Welcome back to Election Night 20XX, America. We have poll closings in 3 states:

OHIO (too close to call) - 2% of precincts reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 52,987 (49.64%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 51,657 (48.39%)
Others: 2,098 (1.97%)

Gomez: Ohio has voted with the winner of every presidential election since 1964, and tonight will most likely be no exception. It is still possible for the loser to win Ohio, but most plausible scenarios see the victor win the Buckeye State.


NORTH CAROLINA (too close to call) - <1% of precincts reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 9,095 (56.28%)
Baker/Sandoval: 6,901 (42.70%)
Others: 164 (1.02%)

Gomez: North Carolina is a traditionally Republican state, having only voted Democratic once since 1964. However, it has recently become much closer overall and Baker's cultural liberalism might not play well with the religious right down there, however he might find a decent amount of support among a growing population of Northern transplants.

WEST VIRGINIA - 1% of precincts reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 55,099 (67.40%)
Baker/Sandoval: 26,235 (32.09%)
Others: 412 (.51%)


Gomez: West Virginia was once one of the most solidly Democratic states in the country, but their dominance collapsed in the early 21st century as the Democratic Blue Dogs diminished away. However, they were still somewhat important at the state level, including their Senator Joe Manchin. The favorite son effect seems to have worked, since he appears to be doing very strongly there. We also have another call to make:

SOUTH CAROLINA - 17% of precincts reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 199,312 (54.03%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 165,098 (44.76%)
Others: 4,457 (1.21%)

Gomez: South Carolina has been called for Baker. The Palmetto State is much more Republican than its northern neighbor, though Baker is ahead by a reduced margin compared to previous Republicans, except for McCain in 2008. A few rural counties have flipped to Manchin, but Baker also flipped Charleston County, which last voted Republican in 2004. Let's check out things in a couple swing states:


KENTUCKY (too close to call) - 37% of precincts reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 359,952 (50.80%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 341,231 (48.15%)
Others: 7,457 (1.05%)

Gomez: Kentucky remains very much so closer than usual, largely due to a spillover favorite son effect from neighboring West Virginia and the state's large number of registered Democrats. Many rural counties have flipped, and what is available of county results so far reminds me of Bill Clinton's map in 1996, when he eked out a just under 1% win.


VERMONT (too close to call) - 15% of precincts reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 23,091 (49.81%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 22,798 (49.18%)
Others: 472 (1.01%)

Gomez: The same is true for Vermont as for Kentucky, except the parties are flipped. Once a Republican stronghold, secular Vermont flipped Democratic after the GOP became more socially conservative, however this moniker does not apply to the Republican candidate this time around. Vermont is similar to Massachusetts politically but is also much whiter, making it entirely possible Baker wins Vermont and loses his home state.

Gomez: 5 votes are called for Manchin, 13 for Baker, and a staggering 113 votes remain uncalled this early in the night.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The meme that refuses to die.

It's true that the meme is dead, but in all seriousness I wanted to do something I knew I could write about. Do you all think it makes more sense to have "20XX," or should I change it to an actual year?

I actually assumed it was 2020 (XX), so you could keep the name.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

The meme that refuses to die.

It's true that the meme is dead, but in all seriousness I wanted to do something I knew I could write about. Do you all think it makes more sense to have "20XX," or should I change it to an actual year?

I actually assumed it was 2020 (XX), so you could keep the name.

I reached the conclusion of 2020 due to the usage of November 3.

[DPKdebator]

8:00 P.M. EST

McManus: It's now 8:00 in the East, and we have more state poll closings. We have several calls to make:

MARYLAND - <1% precincts reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 2,109 (51.51%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,791 (43.73%)
Others: 195 (4.76%)

McManus: The State of Maryland has been called for Senator Manchin. The Old Line State is reliably Democratic, and this election is obviously no exception. Depending on how the suburbs vote, Baker may outperform Romney and Trump strongly here, but the odds of Maryland flipping are exponentially low based off exit polling data.


ILLINOIS - <1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 12,987 (52.51%)
Baker/Sandoval: 11,492 (46.47%)
Others: 253 (1.02%)

McManus: We can project Illinois for Senator Manchin. This is attributed to Manchin's strong performance in rural areas, of which is a trend likely to continue in downstate Illinois, as well as the huge population of Cook County, home of Chicago. The collar counties will most likely flip to Baker, given his popularity among suburban voters, but it will only be enough to close the gap somewhat.


ALABAMA - 1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 12,310 (55.60%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 9,721 (43.90%)
Others: 111 (.50%)

McManus: Alabama can be projected for Governor Baker. Alabama is the most traditionally GOP part of the Deep South, and Baker's current numbers in other parts of the region, especially South Carolina, mean that he will almost certainly win the Heart of Dixie.


MISSISSIPPI - <1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 991 (53.90%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 800 (43.43%)
Others: 51 (2.67%)

TEXAS - <1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 5,345 (51.06%)
Baker/Sandoval: 4,349 (41.54%)
Others: 781 (7.40%)

McManus: Texas is another reliably Republican state, though in recent years their advantage there has thinned, especially after Donald Trump won it by only 9% in 2016. We can project Baker to win the Lone Star State, but whether he will outperform Trump remains to be seen.


OKLAHOMA - 2% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 16,214 (56.44%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 12,412 (43.20%)
Others: 103 (.36%)

McManus: Manchin currently has an impressive performance in Oklahoma, but it will probably not be enough to flip the state, and it's strong Republican lean leads us to project it for Governor Baker.

NORTH DAKOTA - <1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 20 (68.97%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 9 (30.03%)
Others: 0 (.00%)

SOUTH DAKOTA - <1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 568 (57.55%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 399 (40.43%)
Others: 20 (2.02%)

KANSAS - <1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 103 (56.59%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 77 (42.31%)
Others: 2 (1.10%)

McManus: North Dakota, South Dakota, and Kansas are all reliably Republican, and exit poll data allows us to project all three for Governor Baker. We have several states that we cannot call yet:

MAINE (too close to call) - <1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 41 (49.40%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 41 (49.40%)
Others: 1 (1.20%)

MASSACHUSETTS (too close to call) - 1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 16,139 (49.71%)
Baker/Sandoval: 15,820  (48.72%)
Others: 510 (1.57%)

RHODE ISLAND (too close to call) - 1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 2,102 (49.76%)
Baker/Sandoval: 2,091 (49.50%)
Others: 31 (.74%)

NEW JERSEY (too early to call) - <1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 917 (49.86%)
Baker/Sandoval: 881 (47.91%)
Others: 41 (2.23%)

PENNSYLVANIA (too close to call) - 1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 30,123 (50.29%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 29,578 (49.38%)
Others: 197 (.33%)

DELAWARE (too early to call) - <1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 209 (52.12%)
Baker/Sandoval: 190 (47.38%)
Others: 2 (.50%)

MICHIGAN (too close to call) - <1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 24,121 (51.89%)
Baker/Sandoval: 22,192 (47.71%)
Others: 161 (.40%)

MISSOURI (too close to call) - <1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 41 (54.67%)
Baker/Sandoval: 34 (45.33%)
Others: 0 (.00%)

TENNESSEE (too early to call) - <1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 590 (63.51%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 322  (34.66%)
Others: 17 (1.83%)

McManus: This is a wide range of states that we cannot project a winner for. In New England, this can be attributed to Massachusetts being Baker's home state as well as Baker's vigorous campaigning in the region. A similar effect exists in New Jersey, though the Baker campaign did not target it heavily. For the Rust Belt and Appalachian states, this can be attributed to Manchin's appeal to white working-class voters and Blue Dog conservatism. Note that Maine's 2nd congressional district has been projected for Baker. Here's the map as it stands:

McManus: 86 votes have been projected for Baker, 38 for Manchin, 212 remain uncalled, and 202 are in states where polls are still open. Coming up on the half hour, polls close in Arkansas, and we'll gloss over how the candidates are doing in some of the most crucial swing states.

[DPKdebator]

8:30 P.M. E.S.T.

Gomez: It is now 8:30 in the East, and we have one poll closing:

ARKANSAS (too early to call) - <1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 971 (51.57%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 892 (47.37%)
Others: 20 (1.06%)

Gomez: Another surprise tonight, Arkansas cannot be projected yet. Once a solidly Democratic state, it last voted Democratic in 1996 for favorite son Bill Clinton, but has since trended sharply Republican, with Bill's wife Hillary barely getting over a third of the vote in 2016. But Manchin is a Democrat of a similar strain as Bill, and Manchin did do some campaigning in Arkansas, so it is not impossible for it to flip. Let's check out how things are going in some of the battleground states:

FLORIDA (too close to call) - 41% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,943,467 (49.94%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,882,444 (48.37%)
Others: 66,012 (1.69%)

Gomez: As usual, the state of Florida is very close. Many votes have yet to be counted, and the state has continued to flip hands, so we will almost certainly be unable to project a winner until well over 90% of the vote is in. So far, Manchin seems to be outperforming typical Democrats in northern rural areas, but Baker appears to be doing well in more urban parts of the state. Florida will certainly be close, but if Baker performs well in the suburbs, he might actually outperform typical GOP presidential candidates, something unlikely to happen in the rest of the South.


INDIANA (too close to call) - 70% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 999,719 (52.24%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 884,972 (46.29%)
Others: 28,012 (1.47%)

Gomez: Indiana is usually a safely Republican state, but it voted for Barack Obama in 2008 in midst of the financial crisis. Manchin's strength in the Rust Belt has once again put the Hoosier State into play, so the winner will not be clear until most of the vote is in.


OHIO (too close to call) - 59% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,632,183 (50.56%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,567,343 (48.56%)
Others: 28,120 (.88%)

Gomez: Ohio, as a perennial swing state, has not voted for the loser since 1960. Especially in this election, where many of the crucial battleground states are in the same region, whoever wins Ohio will most likely become the president.


MASSACHUSETTS (too close to call) - 21% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 356,518 (50.07%)
Baker/Sandoval: 348,577 (48.96%)
Others: 6,912 (.97%)

GEORGIA (too close to call) - 42% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 872,078 (51.07%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 827,772 (48.47%)
Others: 7,901 (.46%)

MISSOURI (too close to call) - 19% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 262,536 (50.15%)
Baker/Sandoval: 259,012 (49.47%)
Others: 2,004 (.38%)

Gomez: Let's look at the map as it stands:

Gomez: No new calls to make. 86 votes have been projected for Baker, 38 for Manchin, 218 remain uncalled, and 196 are in states where polls are still open. Ann, what does this all say about the election?

Miller: Well, Albert, for one I'll say it's very unusual for so many states to remain uncalled. Baker and Manchin's appeals to demographics different from their party's norm has shaken up the electoral system. Regardless of who wins, a very unorthodox coalition will push the victor over the line.

[DPKdebator]

9:00 P.M. E.S.T.

McManus: Now it's 9 in the East, and we have several poll closings. Several can be projected:

WYOMING - 1% in
Baker/Sandoval: 1,356 (62.35%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 800 (36.78%)
Others: 19 (.87%)

McManus: No surprise here. Wyoming is arguably the most rock ribbed Republican state in the country, a characteristic it retains in this race.


ARIZONA - <1% in
Baker/Sandoval: 2,978 (52.52%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 2,495 (44.00%)
Others: 197 (3.48%)

McManus: Arizona is another strongly Republican state, having only voted Republican once since 1948, for Bill Clinton in 1996. Its numbers do not tend to be lopsided for the GOP, but Baker's so-far strong numbers with Hispanics, which can likely be attributed to the inclusion of Mexican-descended Brian Sandoval on the ticket, allows us to project a Republican victory here.


NEBRASKA - <1% in
Baker/Sandoval: 93 (53.76%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 79 (45.67%)
Others: 1 (.57%)

McManus: Another solidly Republican state, Nebraska will stay in the GOP column tonight. Note that Nebraska's 2nd congressional district has not been projected yet.


MINNESOTA - <1% in
Baker/Sandoval: 291 (50.70%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 280 (48.78%)
Others: 3 (.52%)

McManus: Minnesota is famous for being the only state to vote against Ronald Reagan in 1984. Some Republicans, like George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016, have been able to bring the state close to flipping. Our data shows that Minnesota will be close this election cycle, but we can project a Democratic victory here due to a likely favorite daughter effect for Senator Klobuchar.


NEW YORK - <1% in
Manchin/Klobuchar: 31,012 (53.42%)
Baker/Sandoval: 26,912 (46.35%)
Others: 134 (.23%)

McManus: Another solidly Democratic state due to the size of New York City, the Empire State will remain Democratic this cycle. Let's look at the states we cannot call yet:


COLORADO (too early to call) - <1% in
Baker/Sandoval: 901 (51.93%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 820 (47.26%)
Others: 14 (.81%)

McManus: The Centennial State cannot be called yet at this time. Once a Republican bastion, an influx of more liberal population groups and growing Hispanic population has made it into a swing state. The Republicans, however, could very well flip it if Baker performs well among Hispanics, something there isn't sufficient data yet to 100% support.


NEW MEXICO (too early to call) - 1% in
Manchin/Klobuchar: 3,987 (53.11%)
Baker/Sandoval: 3,400 (45.29%)
Others: 120 (1.60%)

McManus: Like Colorado, the winner in New Mexico depends on performance with Hispanics. It is also a traditional swing state, but New Mexico is more ancestrally Democratic and has only voted GOP once this century, and by an under 1% margin, though Al Gore only won it by 366 votes in 2000.


LOUISIANA (too early to call) - <1% in
Manchin/Klobuchar: 4,981 (50.26%)
Baker/Sandoval: 4,897 (49.41%)
Others: 33 (.33%)

McManus: Louisiana is a similar story to Arkansas, of a once Democratic state that has become solidly Republican in recent years. Arkansas has become slightly more Republican than its southern neighbor since 2008, and since we can't project Arkansas yet the Pelican State is uncalled for now.


WISCONSIN (too early to call) - <1% in
Baker/Sandoval: 31 (50.00%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 29 (46.77%)
Others: 2 (3.23%)

McManus: As a perennial swing state, Wisconsin cannot be projected yet. The only Republican to win since 1988 was Donald Trump in 2016, but in 2000 and 2004 the state was under 1% Democratic. Let's take a look at the electoral map:

McManus: 77 votes have been counted for Manchin, 104 have been counted for Baker, 251 have not been projected yet, and 106 are in states with polls still open.

[DPKdebator]

10:00 P.M. E.S.T.

McManus: The clock has struck 10 o'clock on the Eastern Seaboard. This means we have more poll closings. All but one can be projected:

NEVADA - <1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 129 (61.43%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 78 (37.14%)
Others: 3 (1.43%)

McManus: As the home state of Brian Sandoval, we can project Nevada for the Republican ticket. Nevada is typically a swing state, but the fact that its governor is on the ballot and the Baker campaign has a strong showing with Hispanics allows us to make this decision.


UTAH - <1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 40 (67.80%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 19 (32.20%)
Others: 0 (.00%)

McManus: As one of the most solidly GOP states in the nation, we can safely project Utah for Baker.


IDAHO - 1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 4,231 (61.46%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 2,612 (37.94%)
Others: 41 (.60%)

McManus: Like Utah, Idaho is a solidly Republican state that we can project for Baker.


MONTANA - 1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 2,102 (54.58%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,714 (44.51%)
Others: 35 (.91%)

McManus: Montana is not as stone-solidly Republican as Idaho and Utah, but our data allows us to project it for the GOP ticket. The other closing state cannot be projected:


IOWA (too early to call) - <1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 102 (51.26%)
Baker/Sandoval: 91 (45.73%)
Others: 6 (3.01%)

McManus: Another traditional swing state, we cannot determine the winner in Iowa yet. Let's look at the national map:

McManus: 123 electoral votes have been projected for Baker, 77 electoral votes have been projected for Manchin, 257 electoral votes have not been projected yet, and 81 electoral votes are in states with polls still open. I have to say that the number of states that sill have not been projected yet is pretty surprising, especially since so many of them have had the polls closed for several hours now. Even in the blisteringly close 2000 election, only a few states remained unprojected for this long. Hopefully, in another close election like this one, we don't ever have to deal with confusion over the actual winner again, which was caused by the close result in Florida and controversy over butterfly ballots, which confused some voters.



10:07 P.M. E.S.T.

McManus: This just in, we have a projection to make:

TENNESSEE - 61% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 855,154 (54.10%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 701,481 (44.38%)
Others: 24,102 (1.52%)

McManus: The Volunteer State can be projected for the Baker campaign. A southern state that last voted for the Democrats in 1996 with favorite son Al Gore on the ticket, Tennessee has become much more Republican over the last two decades, and based off our data and voting totals, Manchin has not been able to overcome the state's partisan lean. This adds 11 electoral votes to Baker's count, bringing his total to 134:

10:36 P.M. E.S.T.

Gomez: This just in, we have two big projections to make:

MICHIGAN - 68% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,772,471 (53.46%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,510,436 (45.57%)
Others: 32,012 (.97%)

Gomez: Michigan has been projected for Joe Manchin. A strong sign for the Democrat as many state results remain unclear, it means that his appeal to the Rust Belt appears to be paying off. Michigan last voted Democratic in 2012 for Barack Obama, and narrowly voted for Republican Donald Trump in 2016, who also appealed to Manchin's core base of white working class voters.


FLORIDA - 84% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 4,142,299 (52.78%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 3,635,203 (46.32%)
Others: 71,402 (.90%)

Gomez: A huge win for Charlie Baker, we can project the state of Florida as voting Republican. A win this early on relative to the other states is very surprising, but Baker's performance in the suburbs, smaller size of rural, culturally Southern areas of Florida compared to other parts of the South, and a strong showing with Hispanic voters allows us to make this decision. Interestingly, Miami-Dade County is currently voting Democratic by under 10%, which it last did in 2004, when Republican George W. Bush won 44% of the Hispanic vote. Manchin's win in Michigan adds 16 electoral votes to his total, which is now 93, while Florida adds 27 electoral votes to Baker's now-total of 163 electoral votes:

[libertpaulian]

GO BAKER!

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I think Baker's got this. I can't imagine Manchin winning without Florida.

[DPKdebator]

11:00 P.M. E.S.T.

McManus: Welcome back to Election Night, America. We have poll closings in five states, leaving Alaska as the only state with polls still open.

CALIFORNIA - <1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 31,249 (54.45%)
Baker/Sandoval: 25,123 (43.77%)
Others: 1,024 (1.78%)


McManus: A solidly Democratic state, we can call California for Manchin. Our data shows that Baker will likely vastly improve upon Romney and Trump's performances in California, but it is not enough to flip the Golden State.


HAWAII - <1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 10 (45.45%)
Baker/Sandoval: 7 (31.82%)
Others: 5 (22.73%)

McManus: Another solid Democratic state, the Aloha State can be called for Manchin. Hawaii last voted Republican in 1984 for Ronald Reagan.


WASHINGTON (too close to call) - <1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 42 (51.22%)
Baker/Sandoval: 39 (47.56%)
Others: 1 (1.22%)

McManus: Last considered competitive in the early 2000s, Washington has once again become competitive due to Baker's moderate Republicanism and Manchin's conservative Democratic ideas.


OREGON (too close to call) - <1% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 401 (51.28%)
Baker/Sandoval: 378 (48.34%)
Others: 3 (.38%)

McManus: Oregon has not voted Republican since 1984, but George W. Bush lost it by a hair in 2000. Similar circumstances to its northern neighbor have put it in play for this cycle, and it has been considered critical for both campaigns to win the White House since a close race could teeter on Oregon's results. We are also able to project a few states where polls have already been closed:

MAINE - 74% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 314,948 (56.25%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 242,721 (43.35%)
Others: 2,210 (.40%)

McManus: We can now call the Pine Tree State for Baker. Baker's Rockefeller Republican platform and New England connection has resonated well with Mainers, which has produced a decisive victory for the Baker Campaign. Note that Maine's 1st congressional district remains too close to call, and has been flipping between the candidates throughout the night. We probably won't have a projection until over 90% of the vote is in.


IOWA - 31% in
Manchin/Klobuchar: 267,120 (55.71%)
Baker/Sandoval: 211,104 (44.03%)
Others: 1,239  (.26%)

McManus: Iowa can be projected for Senator Manchin at this hour. Another strong showing for Manchin in the Rust Belt, he is currently outperforming recent polls, though the exact margin is yet to be seen since only 31% of the vote is in. Let's take a look at the electoral map:

McManus: Baker's lead in the electoral college has slimmed to 7, with Manchin now clocking in at 158 electoral votes vs. Baker's 165. 212 are uncalled, and 3 are in the state that hasn't been called yet, Alaska.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I'm still feeling fairly confident Baker will win, but this is almost certainly going to be a close one. I think Manchin needs to pick up Virginia, North Carolina, Kentucky, and one of Missouri or Georgia if he's going to win, which is certainly doable.

[Coastal Elitist]

If Oregon and Washington are too close to call why wouldn't California be. In an actual Manchin vs Baker matchup I would expect pretty much every state to be competitive. I think that California would be extremely close because many liberals and progressives would not vote for a conservative Democrat like Manchin.

[DPKdebator]

If Oregon and Washington are too close to call why wouldn't California be. In an actual Manchin vs Baker matchup I would expect pretty much every state to be competitive. I think that California would be extremely close because many liberals and progressives would not vote for a conservative Democrat like Manchin.

California is certainly going to be much closer than 2012 and 2016, probably around W. Bush's performance. Baker would obviously do much better, but I think the networks would call it pretty early on due to the state's strong Democratic lean.

[libertpaulian]

Please finish this.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Oregon and Washington are too close to call why wouldn't California be. In an actual Manchin vs Baker matchup I would expect pretty much every state to be competitive. I think that California would be extremely close because many liberals and progressives would not vote for a conservative Democrat like Manchin.

Last time I believe both were decided by under 10 points was in 2004


in 2004 Kerry won CA basically by 10 points while only winning OR by 4

[DPKdebator]

Please finish this.

I just got back from a ten-day trip, so hopefully there'll be an update soon.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think we probably see a very narrow Manchin victory.

[DPKdebator]

11:21 P.M. E.S.T.

Gomez: We now have three projections to make:

NEW JERSEY - 79% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,658,201 (53.69%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,399,804 (45.33%)
Others: 30,186 (.98%)

Gomez: The Garden State can be called for Manchin. Although New Jersey has a strong Democratic lean, Baker's suburban strength has kept the state very close. Manchin currently has an 8% lead, but many solidly Republican areas still have ballots to count, though this will not be enough to flip the state.


DELAWARE - 85% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 192,464 (51.08%)
Baker/Sandoval:  180,406 (47.88%)
Others: 3,899 (1.04%)

Gomez: Delaware can be projected for Joe Manchin. The First State usually votes similarly to New Jersey, though currently it is about 5% more Republican than New Jersey. New Jersey has more ballots left to count, though, so it is likely that the results will be more similar between the two states.


COLORADO - 67% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 1,078,109 (57.21%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 788,001 (41.81%)
Others: 18,499 (.98%)

Gomez: Colorado can be projected for Governor Baker. Although the Centennial State has trended Democratic since the turn of the 21st century, the moderate Baker appears to have played well with Coloradan voters, and the presence of a Hispanic on the ticket has contributed to strong Republican support among that group.

Gomez: Manchin has taken the lead in the Electoral College, but by only one vote, 175-174, with 186 uncalled and 3 in Alaska, the only state where polls are still open.


12:00 A.M. E.S.T.

Gomez: The polls have closed in the last state, Alaska. It can be projected for Baker and Sandoval:

ALASKA - <1% in
Baker/Sandoval: 401 (56.88%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 302 (42.84%)
Others: 2 (.28%)

Gomez: Baker has taken back the lead, but by just two electoral votes, 177-175, with 186 unprojected and no polls still open. There is no clear opening for either candidate yet. 18 states remain uncalled, most of which closed their polls several hours ago. For Manchin to win, he must pull off wins in the Rust Belt while holding on to the Pacific Northwest and Massachusetts/Rhode Island. For Baker to win, he must win the Deep South and the Lower Midwest.

[Vern]

Can we get an update on the to close to call states

[RC (a la Frémont)]

Can we get an update on the to close to call states

[Oldiesfreak1854]

How do you calculate the vote tallies and percentages?

[DPKdebator]

How do you calculate the vote tallies and percentages?

For the percentages, I get a general idea based off historical reporting by looking at recordings on YouTube and how long it's been since the state polls closed, then I take the percentage and multiply it by the 2016 vote total. The tally I produce adds up to a number somewhere around this (I don't make it exact, since that wouldn't make sense).

Can we get an update on the to close to call states

Don't worry, there'll be an update released today.