GOP and the Midwest

[Ben.]

Unlikely.

Iowa’s a probable GOP pickup, but while both Doyle and Granholm are vulnerable there doesn’t seem to be any Republican candidate around capable of beating them, the same might well be the case in Illinois where Blagojevich should be set for a near automatic loss, but thanks to the weakness of the state’s GOP he might well eek out a win, that is assuming former Governor Edgar doesn’t run (if he does then he’ll win).

Looking at Republican held Governor’s Mansions in Minnesota and Ohio, I can’t see how Pawlenty loses nor who could beat him, in Ohio whoever gets the GOP nomination is going to have a very hard time and Ted Strickland is well placed to pickup the Governorship for the Dems.

In the end I think the GOP’ll pick up Iowa and the Democrats will pick up Ohio… though the likely Democrat holds in MI, WI and IL are more to do with the weakness of the GOP in those races than the strength of any of the incumbents.