Would Hillary have carried AR & WV as the Democratic nominee in 2008?

[TDAS04]

I’m guessing she would have carried Arkansas and narrowly lost West Virginia.

[Mr. Smith]

West Virginia only, she was already too far removed from Arkansas by 2008 and West Virginia still had lots of Democratic roots left.

I suspect that Hillary would probably lose Arkansas by around the same margin...maybe slightly more than Gore for this reason.

But against McCain, in a recession, she'd probably have WV by a hair before losing it in 2012.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Well, polls showed her winning both states against McCain, but we have no real way of knowing if she actually would have won them come election day. both obviously were still very Democratic at the state level at that time, and I imagine there were plenty of white Democrats and coal miners in Arkansas and West Virginia respectively who would have been much warmer towards Hillary than they were towards Obama.

[twenty42]

No. Both these states swung R in a 7.2-point national D win. They may have been closer if Hillary was the nominee, but both were headed in a clear direction.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I would actually have to say both. She was still popular in Arkansas in 2008, and it still was a pretty solidly Democratic state downballot. I'm not as sure about WV, but I think she was also popular there too.

[RINO Tom]

Arkansas by less than 1%, WV by about 5%.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Hillary was polling +15 against Mccain in Arkansas and arkansas voted plenty of dems in even in 2010. Arkansas had plenty of white registered dems at the time.

Why doesn't atlas want to admit that blackity black black scared a lot of white, conservative dems into votijg Mccain when polls clearly showed them voting for Hillary (even before the lehman brothers crash).

[RINO Tom]

Hillary was polling +15 against Mccain in Arkansas and arkansas voted plenty of dems in even in 2010. Arkansas had plenty of white registered dems at the time.

Why doesn't atlas want to admit that blackity black black scared a lot of white, conservative dems into votijg Mccain when polls clearly showed them voting for Hillary (even before the lehman brothers crash).

Because that would admit that there were racist Democrats, supporting a clearly liberal party, in 2008 ... and our current narrative is that all racists joined the GOP in 1964.

Also, Arkansas doesn't have partisan registration, so it's harder to track such shifts than in, say, West Virginia or Oklahoma.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

No. Both these states swung R in a 7.2-point national D win. They may have been closer if Hillary was the nominee, but both were headed in a clear direction.

They swung R because a progressive black man was a terrible fit for them, and would have swung D with Hillary as the nominee, regardless of whether she won them or not.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Hillary was polling +15 against Mccain in Arkansas and arkansas voted plenty of dems in even in 2010. Arkansas had plenty of white registered dems at the time.

Why doesn't atlas want to admit that blackity black black scared a lot of white, conservative dems into votijg Mccain when polls clearly showed them voting for Hillary (even before the lehman brothers crash).

Because that would admit that there were racist Democrats, supporting a clearly liberal party, in 2008 ... and our current narrative is that all racists joined the GOP in 1964.

Also, Arkansas doesn't have partisan registration, so it's harder to track such shifts than in, say, West Virginia or Oklahoma.

I don't disagree that there were plenty of racists back then (and still some now).

The southern realignment went on from 1964-2012.

[MT Treasurer]

No, they would have been closer, but she would have lost both states, just like McCain would have lost OR/WA/NH/MI/VA/WI.

[VPH]

I mean a large chunk of West Virginia swung towards Obama. I think Hillary would have been able to win it, or at least swing it to Democrats. I forsee her doing better in coal country. Arkansas would be more of a stretch.

[TheLeftwardTide]

Definitely. I have no doubt in my mind about it.

I don't think she would've won Indiana, though. Probably not NC, either.

[dw93]

She could narrowly win Arkansas, but not West Virginia. She'd lose WV as it was  her Husband's Administration that pushed Kyoto and her environmental record was about the same as Gore's, and it was environmental issues and perceived (or real?) hostility toward the Coal Industry that caused the state to shift to the GOP at the state level. Instead of West Virginia, she'd flip Missouri and maybe Montana.

[Dr. MB]

Hillary was polling +15 against Mccain in Arkansas and arkansas voted plenty of dems in even in 2010. Arkansas had plenty of white registered dems at the time.

Why doesn't atlas want to admit that blackity black black scared a lot of white, conservative dems into votijg Mccain when polls clearly showed them voting for Hillary (even before the lehman brothers crash).

Because that would admit that there were racist Democrats, supporting a clearly liberal party, in 2008 ... and our current narrative is that all racists joined the GOP in 1964.

Also, Arkansas doesn't have partisan registration, so it's harder to track such shifts than in, say, West Virginia or Oklahoma.

I don't disagree that there were plenty of racists back then (and still some now).

The southern realignment went on from 1964-2012.

It’s still very much ongoing. KY’s legislature flipped from D to R in 2016.

[MATTROSE94]

I think that Hillary Clinton would have narrowly carried Araknsas, West Virgina, Tennessee, Missouri, Virginia, and possibly Louisiana, Kentucky and Georgia, but would have narrowly lost North Carolina. Florida would have also been 50-50 and might have went for John McCain in the end.

[Beet]

Yes, spring polls had Obama losing by 20 points in Arkansas and 10 points in West Virginia, similar to his final margin of loss in those states. The same polls had Hillary leading. Clinton's lead would have quickly evaporated in the 2012 election, similar to how Obama's did in Indiana and North Carolina. The ironic thing is, Clinton failed to carry her appeal in those areas into the 2016 election. As late as 2013 there were articles claiming she would do well in Eastern Kentucky (!) In her book What Happened, Clinton said she just wasn't "wired" for populism and mused that may have been why she lost. But she was doing populism just fine in the 2008 primaries.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Yes to both.

[Dr. MB]

Yes to both.

[Skunk]

I think she'd win AR and maybe WV, though states like MO and KY are more likely to flip to her than WV though.

[TDAS04]

I think she'd win AR and maybe WV, though states like MO and KY are more likely to flip to her than WV though.

Why Kentucky?

[RINO Tom]

Yes, spring polls had Obama losing by 20 points in Arkansas and 10 points in West Virginia, similar to his final margin of loss in those states. The same polls had Hillary leading. Clinton's lead would have quickly evaporated in the 2012 election, similar to how Obama's did in Indiana and North Carolina. The ironic thing is, Clinton failed to carry her appeal in those areas into the 2016 election. As late as 2013 there were articles claiming she would do well in Eastern Kentucky (!) In her book What Happened, Clinton said she just wasn't "wired" for populism and mused that may have been why she lost. But she was doing populism just fine in the 2008 primaries.

Yeah, "populism" fit Hillary like a glove in 2008, as her dazzling ready-on-demand Southern accent showed us.  She just calculated that populism wasn't the way to go to become President in 2016, and she was wrong.  Hillary isn't "wired" for anything other than what she thinks she needs to do to get elected, and the fact that she badly miscalculated 2016 doesn't change that.

[Suburbia]

No.

Coal

[Hope For A New Era]

Maybe, but it would have been narrow. I would say Arkansas is more likely than West Virginia, purely because of her name (she was a better fit for West Virginia). She definitely would have won Missouri.

[SingingAnalyst]

Neither, though she would have come close in both. As pointed out earlier, her Arkansas connection may have put her over the top in MO (though possibly cost her NC and IN).